Will Trevor Lawrence’s extension result in success for Jaguars?

JACKSONVILLE, Fla. — Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence has turn out to be one of many highest-paid gamers in NFL historical past. He agreed to a five-year, $275 million contract extension — together with $200 million in ensures — on Thursday, based on ESPN’s Adam Schefter. The contract ties Joe Burrow’s deal because the highest-paid quarterback within the NFL by way of annual wage.

The contract is the most important in franchise historical past — surpassing the five-year, $141.25 million deal ($88 million assured) that exterior linebacker Josh Allen signed in April.

The 2021 No. 1 total choose is just the third quarterback the Jaguars have drafted to earn an extension, becoming a member of David Garrard (seven years, $69.4 million) in 2007 and Blake Bortles (three years, $54 million) in 2018. Solely Lawrence and Bortles (No. 3 in 2014) have been first-round picks.

After three seasons within the NFL, has Lawrence earned this contract? And with the contract out of the way in which, will he take the following step as an elite quarterback? We kind via the most important questions.

Has Lawrence earned this contract?

In the event you have a look at what Lawrence has performed in his profession to this point — 20-30 document as a starter (plus 1-1 within the playoffs), 63.8% completions, 58 landing passes, 39 interceptions — you may surprise why the Jaguars made him one of many highest-paid quarterbacks.

However the Jaguars aren’t paying him solely for what he has performed to this point. They’re paying him as a result of they imagine he’s going to play at a stage that may persistently have them in competition for a Tremendous Bowl, particularly as he grows in coach Doug Pederson’s offense.

Lawrence has proven flashes of being an elite quarterback during the last three seasons.

His rookie season was lower than excellent, as he struggled with City Meyer as a head coach for lower than a full season. Lawrence’s NFL-high 17 interceptions and 3-13 document because the starter that yr was understood as a microcosm of a bigger workforce concern.

Lawrence then rebounded in a giant approach in 2022 with 25 landing passes and eight interceptions, main the Jaguars to an AFC South title. Within the playoffs, he put collectively among the finest comebacks in NFL historical past because the Jaguars rallied from a 27-0 deficit (arrange partly by his 4 interceptions) to a 31-30 victory over the Los Angeles Chargers earlier than shedding to Kansas Metropolis within the divisional spherical.

And final season he took a step again. The Jaguars have been 8-3 in 2023 and competing for the No. 1 seed within the AFC earlier than Lawrence was beset with a number of accidents over the ultimate six weeks of the season: a proper excessive ankle sprain, a concussion and a shoulder sprain. The Jaguars went 1-5 in that stretch (he missed one sport), and Lawrence did not absolutely take part in a follow after Dec. 15. He additionally completed third within the NFL in turnovers final season (21) and has 60 in his first three seasons.

However there’s a stretch between the 2022 and 2023 seasons that reveals the potential the Jaguars see in Lawrence.

In a 17-game span from Week 12 of 2022 via Week 11 of 2023, he threw for 4,161 yards and 23 touchdowns with eight interceptions. He ranked ninth in QBR, seventh in completion proportion, ninth in passing yards, and twelfth in TD passes amongst all QBs over that span. Just one QB had extra victories in that span than Lawrence (13): Jalen Hurts (14). Patrick Mahomes and Jared Goff additionally received 13 video games in that stretch.

Regardless of the ups and downs in his first three seasons Lawrence has led the Jaguars to twenty victories, 17 of which have come previously two seasons. That may not sound spectacular, however the Jaguars had received simply 12 video games within the three seasons previous to his arrival and began six QBs in these 48 video games: Bortles (3-9), Cody Kessler (2-2), Nick Foles (0-4), Gardner Minshew (7-13), Mike Glennon (0-5) and Jake Luton (0-3).

This shall be Lawrence’s third season in Pederson’s offense. Lawrence’s development within the system and as a pacesetter are indicators that the 24-year-old may very well be headed for a breakout season.

“He is changing into the vocal chief within the locker room, on the sphere, in conferences,” Pederson stated. “He is partaking. Once we received him three years in the past, he was simply studying our system and sort of quiet and simply making an attempt to undergo the motions a little bit little bit of simply making an attempt to adapt to us and get a really feel for us. Now he is partaking and giving us concepts. Now he is giving us solutions and concepts and actually changing into one other coach, a set of eyes on the sphere.”

That Lawrence did not have the breakout season — for varied causes — in 2023 doesn’t suggest he is behind in his improvement, Pederson stated.

“I discovered this again once I went to Inexperienced Bay as a participant underneath Mike Holmgren: It takes three to 4 years,” Pederson stated. “It takes that point to grow to be the quarterback that you just need to turn out to be otherwise you need on your workforce. And it is simply not an in a single day deal. It isn’t a plug-and-play deal. Some groups, some guys are going to have success, however there’s that simply understanding the sport and studying the sport and finding out the sport.

“It is the encouraging half as an offensive workers and simply myself now going into that third yr [with Lawrence]. That is sort of this leap yr that he can have transferring ahead.”

What does Lawrence must do now that he received paid?

Pederson has stated his prime two priorities for Lawrence going into his fourth season — no matter how a lot cash Lawrence shall be making — are reducing down on turnovers and getting higher at situational soccer.

There are solely 11 quarterbacks who’ve made their debut since 1978 which have turned the ball over greater than Lawrence (60) of their first three seasons, per Elias Sports activities Bureau. There are three Corridor of Famers on the record — Warren Moon (73, tied with Steve DeBerg for essentially the most), Peyton Manning (64) and John Elway (61) — however so are Vinny Testaverde (72), Jake Plummer (70) and Mark Sanchez (63).

“It is the most important factor that he has to deal with transferring ahead,” Pederson stated at his end-of-season information convention. “We simply cannot have this quantity of turnovers. How we flip the ball over, the place we flip the ball over, it would not matter. We have got to guard the soccer. That is the No. 1 factor.

“For the quarterback, the person who touches the ball each snap, we received to ensure the emphasis is caring for the ball.”

Situational soccer is issues like taking the safer or simpler throw on third down; sliding or getting right down to keep away from harm; throwing the ball away if nobody is open; and understanding the offense is in area objective vary and never jeopardizing the potential for three factors with poor ball safety or by trying an ill-advised throw.

All of which, Pederson stated, shall be helped by a fuller understanding of the offense now that Lawrence is in his third season within the system, in addition to taking a much bigger function in adapting the system to his strengths.

“Persevering with to grasp our offense, get higher with the scheme [is the next step for Lawrence],” Pederson stated on the scouting mix. “Actually, nonetheless put extra of an impression to his voice on our offense. He is the one on the market executing and calling the performs, so I would like him to talk up and actually take possession in that with us.

“The situational a part of soccer, too, simply understanding sport conditions, managing the sport in a sure approach at sure occasions all through the course of the sport. These are all areas that we will proceed as a workers to help him and assist him get to the place he needs to be.”

Is the Jaguars’ offense arrange for long-term success?

The Jaguars’ key offensive gamers are all underneath contract for no less than the following two seasons: Working again Travis Etienne Jr., tight finish Evan Engram and receiver Christian Kirk are locked in via the 2025 season. Receiver Gabe Davis is locked in via the 2026 season. Engram and Kirk are additionally candidates for restructuring, which might preserve them round even longer.

That group has been the core of an offense that completed within the prime 13 in whole yards, passing yards and factors per sport in every of the previous two seasons.

Plus, the Jaguars’ offense will get a lift from rookie receiver Brian Thomas Jr., chosen at No. 23 in April, and second-year receiver Parker Washington, who has been one of many standouts at OTAs and minicamp.

The talent positions are in good condition, and so long as the offensive line points that plagued the workforce in 2023 — accidents, poor inside play — do not linger, there isn’t any cause the offense cannot persistently be a top-10 unit, particularly if Lawrence makes the leap that Pederson referenced.