Will Trevor Lawrence’s extension result in success for Jaguars?

JACKSONVILLE, Fla. — Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence has develop into one of many highest-paid gamers in NFL historical past. He agreed to a five-year, $275 million contract extension — together with $200 million in ensures — on Thursday, in accordance with ESPN’s Adam Schefter. The contract ties Joe Burrow because the highest-paid quarterback within the NFL by way of annual wage.

The contract is the most important in franchise historical past — surpassing the five-year, $141.25 million deal ($88 million assured) that outdoors linebacker Josh Allen signed in April.

The 2021 No. 1 total choose is simply the third quarterback the Jaguars have drafted to earn an extension, becoming a member of David Garrard (seven years, $69.4 million) in 2007 and Blake Bortles (three years, $54 million) in 2018. Solely Lawrence and Bortles (No. 3 total in 2014) have been first-round picks.

After three seasons within the NFL, has Lawrence earned this contract? And with the contract out of the way in which, will he take the subsequent step as an elite quarterback? We type by the most important questions.

Has Lawrence earned this contract?

For those who have a look at what Lawrence has achieved in his profession to this point — 20-30 document as a starter (plus 1-1 within the playoffs), 63.8% completions, 58 landing passes, 39 interceptions — you would possibly surprise why the Jaguars made him one of many highest-paid quarterbacks.

However the Jaguars aren’t paying him completely for what he is achieved to this point. They’re paying him as a result of they imagine he’s going to play at a degree that may constantly have them in rivalry for a Tremendous Bowl, particularly as he continues to develop in coach Doug Pederson’s offense.

Lawrence has proven flashes of being an elite quarterback during the last three seasons.

His rookie season was lower than preferrred, as he struggled with City Meyer as a head coach for lower than a full season. Lawrence’s NFL-high 17 interceptions and 3-13 document because the starter that yr was understood as a microcosm of a bigger staff challenge.

Lawrence then rebounded in a giant method in 2022 with 25 landing passes and eight interceptions, main the Jaguars to an AFC South title. Within the playoffs, he put collectively top-of-the-line comebacks in NFL historical past because the Jaguars rallied from a 27-0 deficit (arrange partly by his 4 interceptions) to a 31-30 victory over the Los Angeles Chargers earlier than dropping to Kansas Metropolis within the divisional spherical.

And final season he took a step again. The Jaguars have been 8-3 in 2023 and competing for the No. 1 seed within the AFC earlier than Lawrence was beset with a number of accidents over the ultimate six weeks of the season: A proper excessive ankle sprain, a concussion and a shoulder sprain. The Jaguars went 1-5 in that stretch (he missed one sport) and Lawrence did not totally take part in a apply after Dec. 15. He additionally completed third within the NFL in turnovers final season (21) and has 60 in his first three seasons.

However there’s a stretch between the 2022 and 2023 seasons that reveals the potential the Jaguars see in Lawrence.

In a 17-game stretch from Week 12 of 2022 by Week 11 of 2023, he threw for 4,161 yards and 23 touchdowns with eight interceptions. He ranked ninth in QBR, seventh in completion proportion, ninth in passing yards, and twelfth in TD passes amongst all QBs over that span. Just one QB had extra victories in that span than Lawrence (13): Jalen Hurts (14). Patrick Mahomes and Jared Goff additionally received 13 video games in that stretch.

Regardless of the ups and downs in his first three seasons Lawrence has led the Jaguars to twenty victories, 17 of which have come within the final two seasons. That won’t sound spectacular however the Jaguars had received simply 12 video games within the three seasons previous to his arrival and began six QBs in these 48 video games: Bortles (3-9), Cody Kessler (2-2), Nick Foles (0-4), Gardner Minshew (7-13), Mike Glennon (0-5) and Jake Luton (0-3).

This might be Lawrence’s third season in Pederson’s offense. Lawrence’s progress within the system and as a frontrunner are indicators that the 24-year-old may very well be headed for a breakout season.

“He is changing into the vocal chief within the locker room, on the sector, in conferences,” Pederson mentioned. “He is participating. After we acquired him three years in the past, he was simply studying our system and form of quiet and simply making an attempt to undergo the motions somewhat little bit of simply making an attempt to adapt to us and get a really feel for us. Now he is participating and giving us concepts. Now he is giving us ideas and concepts and actually changing into one other coach, a set of eyes on the sector.”

That Lawrence did not have the breakout season — for varied causes — in 2023 doesn’t suggest he is behind in his growth, Pederson mentioned.

“I realized this again once I went to Inexperienced Bay as a participant below Mike Holmgren: It takes three to 4 years,” Pederson mentioned. “It takes that point to grow to be the quarterback that you just need to develop into otherwise you need to your staff. And it is simply not an in a single day deal. It is not a plug-and-play deal. Some groups, some guys are going to have success, however there’s that simply understanding the sport and studying the sport and learning the sport.

“It is the encouraging half as an offensive workers and simply myself now going into that third yr [with Lawrence]. That is form of this soar yr that he can have shifting ahead.”

What does Lawrence must do now that he acquired paid?

Pederson has mentioned his prime two priorities for Lawrence going into his fourth season — no matter how a lot cash Lawrence might be making — are slicing down on turnovers and getting higher at situational soccer.

There are solely 11 quarterbacks who’ve made their debut since 1978 which have turned the ball over greater than Lawrence (60) of their first three seasons, per Elias Sports activities Bureau. There are three Corridor of Famers on the listing — Warren Moon (73, tied with Steve DeBerg for probably the most), Peyton Manning (64) and John Elway (61) — however so are Vinny Testaverde (72), Jake Plummer (70) and Mark Sanchez (63).

“It is the most important factor that he has to deal with shifting ahead,” Pederson mentioned at his end-of-season information convention. “We simply cannot have this quantity of turnovers. How we flip the ball over, the place we flip the ball over, it does not matter. We have got to guard the soccer. That is the No. 1 factor.

“For the quarterback, the individual that touches the ball each snap, we acquired to verify the emphasis is caring for the ball.”

Situational soccer is issues like: Taking the safer or simpler throw on third down, sliding or getting right down to keep away from harm, throwing the ball away if nobody is open, and understanding the offense is in discipline purpose vary and never jeopardizing the opportunity of three factors with poor ball safety or making an attempt an ill-advised throw.

All of which, Pederson mentioned, might be helped by a fuller understanding of the offense now that it is his third season within the system, in addition to taking a much bigger position in adapting the system to his strengths.

“Persevering with to know our offense, get higher with the scheme [is the next step for Lawrence],” Pederson mentioned on the scouting mix. “Actually, nonetheless put extra of an affect to his voice on our offense. He is the one on the market executing and calling the performs, so I need him to talk up and actually take possession in that with us.

“The situational a part of soccer too, simply understanding sport conditions, managing the sport in a sure method at sure occasions all through the course of the sport. These are all areas that we will proceed as a workers to help him and assist him get to the place he needs to be.”

Is the Jaguars offense arrange for long-term success?

The important thing items of the offense are all below contract for no less than the subsequent two seasons: Operating again Travis Etienne Jr., tight finish Evan Engram and receiver Christian Kirk are locked in by the 2025 season. Receiver Gabe Davis is locked in by the 2026 season. Engram and Kirk are additionally candidates for restructuring, which might preserve them round even longer.

That group has been the core of an offense that completed within the prime 13 in whole yards, passing yards, and factors per sport in every of the final two seasons.

Plus, the Jaguars offense will get a lift after drafted receiver Brian Thomas Jr. at No. twenty third total in April, and second-year receiver Parker Washington has been one of many standouts at OTAs and minicamp.

The ability positions are in good condition, and so long as the offensive line points that plagued the staff in 2023 — accidents, poor inside participant — do not linger there is not any motive the offense cannot constantly be a top-10 unit, particularly if Lawrence makes the soar that Pederson referenced.