Why Man Metropolis may defend UCL, however one other treble is unlikely

Pep Guardiola is a tough man to learn. The Manchester Metropolis supervisor can usually betray a way of false modesty, suggesting that unbelievable achievements are past his group earlier than watching his gamers do what he had initially mentioned could be not possible. Final season’s treble success was a primary instance of that.

Maybe Guardiola is just adopting the identical outdated “thoughts video games” that the majority profitable bosses deploy in an try and ease the stress on their groups and dial down ranges of expectation. However when a prime supervisor performs down the possibilities of successful, no person fairly believes them.

But with Metropolis resuming the defence of their Champions League title after they face FC Copenhagen in Denmark on Tuesday within the round-of-16 first leg, Guardiola has emphatically dominated out the prospect of the Premier League champions repeating final yr’s treble triumph.

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“It is a fairy story, it is extra sophisticated than that,” he mentioned final week. “Now we have a 99.99% chance that we’re not going to win the treble as a result of by no means, by no means, ever, ever, ever, ever, ever has anybody finished it. If it was simple, one other group — Manchester United in that point — would do it once more. It isn’t simple. All the things is so tough on this enterprise, what we did up to now does not assure something.”

False modesty once more, or a case of Guardiola giving everybody linked with Metropolis a chilly dose of actuality?

The reality is that Guardiola is likely to be proper. For the reason that begin of the Champions League period in 1992, seven groups, together with Metropolis, have achieved the treble of home league, home cup and Champions League. Thus far, none of them have backed it up by repeating the feat 12 months later.

In 1999-2000, Sir Alex Ferguson’s treble winners at Manchester United defended the Premier League title, however they have been eradicated on the quarterfinal stage of the Champions League by Actual Madrid. That season, United have been unable to defend the FA Cup after withdrawing from the competitors to participate within the FIFA Membership World Cup in Brazil.

Ten years later, Guardiola’s Barcelona gained only one competitors — LaLiga — after doing the treble in 2008-09, whereas Serie A champions Inter Milan adopted up their treble in 2009-10 by successful solely the Coppa Italia the next season.

German giants Bayern Munich did the treble in 2012-13 and 2019-20, however they achieved a home double in 2013-14 and gained solely the Bundesliga in 2020-21, whereas Luis Enrique’s Barcelona gained LaLiga and Copa del Rey in 2015-16 however have been knocked out of the Champions League on the quarterfinal stage to finish hopes of back-to-back trebles.

However whereas historical past does not favour Metropolis of their quest to turn into the primary group to do a treble in successive seasons, they’ve one benefit that none of their six predecessors had within the Champions League: no rising group seems to be set to assert their throne.

Vicente del Bosque’s nice Actual Madrid group, which gained two Champions Leagues in three seasons, ended United’s hopes in 2000; Jose Mourinho’s treble-winning Inter aspect eradicated Barcelona in 2010; Bayern have been ousted by Carlo Ancelotti’s Actual Madrid in 2014; Diego Simeone’s Atletico Madrid accounted for Barcelona in 2016 earlier than dropping to Actual within the closing.

In 2021, Bayern’s defence of their European crown ended in opposition to Paris Saint-Germain within the quarterfinals. That yr, when Chelsea gained the title, is maybe the one instance of a treble winner falling quick in a comparatively weak area. They’re often taken out by a formidable opponent.

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However it’s laborious to determine such a menace to Metropolis on this season’s competitors. Bayern are struggling domestically below Thomas Tuchel, with Saturday’s 3-0 defeat at Bayer Leverkusen elevating the actual prospect of Bayern failing to win the Bundesliga for the primary time since 2011, whereas PSG are a declining pressure within the Champions League following the current departures of Neymar and Lionel Messi.

Barcelona are treading water in LaLiga, Italian champions Napoli are mid-table in Serie A, whereas neither Borussia Dortmund or Atletico Madrid look set to emerge as shock winners. Arsenal have but to persuade that they’ve the consistency and expertise to win the Champions League for the primary time and whereas Inter are wanting sturdy on the prime of Serie A, Metropolis would don’t have any fears in opposition to the Nerrazzurri in the event that they have been to fulfill, having crushed Simone Inzaghi’s aspect in final season’s closing in Istanbul.

That leaves Actual as Metropolis’s largest menace, however despite the fact that midfielder Jude Bellingham — anticipated to be sidelined till March with an ankle damage — has been excellent this season, LaLiga’s leaders nonetheless look wanting a confirmed purpose scorer following Karim Benzema’s transfer to Al Ittihad final summer time. And Metropolis blew Actual away 5-1 on mixture in final season’s semifinal, so Guardiola won’t be fazed by a conflict in opposition to Ancelotti’s group.

The group that Metropolis concern most — Liverpool — aren’t even on this season’s Champions League, so the trail to glory within the competitors seems greater than navigable. However the Champions League is just one a part of the treble. Liverpool nonetheless stand in Metropolis’s approach within the Premier League and FA Cup, so possibly Guardiola is correct to minimize his group’s treble probabilities.

The Champions League is likely to be the simplest one to win, however despite the fact that Metropolis are the group to beat in all the pieces, their home problem is prone to be the hardest and the one which can finally deliver them down and show Guardiola proper to be pessimistic.