What Joel Embiid’s return means for the Philadelphia 76ers and the East playoff image

PHILADELPHIA — When Joel Embiid barreled down the court docket inside the ultimate 30 seconds of Tuesday evening’s recreation in opposition to the Western Convention-leading Oklahoma Metropolis Thunder, the sellout crowd inside Wells Fargo Middle rose to its toes.

In the meantime, 76ers coach Nick Nurse held his breath.

“Go quicker?” Nurse stated postgame, when requested what was going via his thoughts when he noticed Embiid driving the paint within the closing moments of a one-point recreation after swiping the ball from Thunder guard Josh Giddey.

Seconds after the steal, Embiid, in his first recreation in eight weeks after present process a process on the lateral meniscus in his left knee, jumped into Thunder heart Chet Holmgren on the rim. The collision despatched the rookie into the photographers behind the basket and Embiid to the free throw line. “Man, I used to be attempting to get the and-one,” Embiid stated postgame.

Embiid knocked down a pair of free throws, and after a ultimate sequence that noticed Oklahoma Metropolis miss three potential game-tying 3-pointers inside the ultimate 13 seconds of the sport, Embiid and the 76ers had been in a position to rejoice a 109-105 victory over the Thunder. Philly’s MVP large man was formally again.

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Joel Embiid comes up with essential steal in crunch time

Joel Embiid breaks away from Josh Giddey after the steal and is fouled in transition.

Total, it was an uneven efficiency for Embiid: 24 factors on 6-for-14 taking pictures however 12-for-12 from the foul line, to associate with 6 rebounds, 7 assists, 3 steals and 6 turnovers in practically half-hour on the court docket. Most significantly, Embiid appeared to emerge unscathed from a well being perspective, simply as he did from Saturday’s prolonged 5-on-5 apply, his first full session together with his teammates since Golden State Warriors ahead Jonathan Kuminga inadvertently fell on his leg throughout a recreation on Jan. 30.

Now, the 76ers shift to Miami for one of many greatest remaining video games within the common season Thursday evening. Embiid, who was visibly exhausted at occasions throughout Tuesday’s win, stated the objective is to play in that recreation, too.

“We simply gotta take it daily, see how the knee responds tomorrow,” Embiid stated. “We received a giant one in Miami. If I am good to go, clearly go.”

Tuesday’s recreation, at the same time as fellow All-Star Tyrese Maxey and the group’s different beginning guard, De’Anthony Melton, watched in avenue garments, was an indication that this contender, with lower than two weeks to go within the common season, is near changing into complete.

“I need us to go on a run to complete the season,” Embiid stated. “So, we received to take [the wins], and hold competing.”

As the remainder of the Jap Convention’s contenders watch Embiid and the Sixers over their ultimate six video games of the common season, here is how the reigning MVP’s return may shake up the playoff race.

What Embiid means for Philadelphia on the court docket

For Philadelphia, the subsequent two weeks are about two issues: getting Embiid up-to-speed and doing all the things potential to keep away from the play-in event. Whereas Embiid’s return was an apparent enhance, it confirmed how a lot his group has modified since he went out in late January. Earlier than Tuesday’s recreation, Embiid had by no means performed a single second with beginning guards Kyle Lowry and Cameron Payne and sixth man Buddy Hield — all three arrived at or close to the Feb. 8 commerce deadline. Embiid’s victorious comeback additionally got here with fellow All-Star Tyrese Maxey sitting out for a second consecutive recreation with a hip damage.

When Embiid is on the court docket this season, Philadelphia is scoring 120.6 factors per 100 possessions and permitting 110.5. These would rank because the second-best offense and third-best protection within the NBA over a full season. However throughout Embiid’s damage, Philadelphia was outscored by 4.9 factors per 100 possessions, the ninth-worst mark within the league in that span.

Now, there are causes for optimism that the group assembled across the reigning MVP is healthier than the roster when Embiid went down. Lowry, the North Philadelphia native, has hit 39% of his 3-pointers as a Sixer, gives strong two-way play and has a invaluable reference to 76ers coach Nick Nurse from their shared time along with the Toronto Raptors.

Hield, in the meantime, is the newest in a line of sharpshooting guards that transfer properly off the ball who ought to slip proper into some glorious two-man recreation actions with Embiid, simply as J.J. Redick and Seth Curry have with him previously. And Nicolas Batum, after lacking a number of chunks of time as a result of damage earlier within the yr, has turn into a staple in Philadelphia’s lineup who may excel alongside Embiid and Harris within the 76ers’ frontcourt. One unknown is the standing of guard De’Anthony Melton, a key two-way participant for Philadelphia and, if wholesome, Maxey’s companion within the group’s beginning backcourt. Melton has performed in simply 5 of the 76ers’ final 44 video games due to ongoing again points, and his return timetable stays unclear.

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Legler: With a wholesome Embiid, Sixers’ ceiling is convention finals

Tim Legler breaks down how the return of Joel Embiid impacts the 76ers’ playoff hopes within the Jap Convention.

Embiid’s impression on the East playoff image

Thursday’s matchup in Miami with the Warmth looms as a digital must-win for the 76ers to climb greater than eighth coming into the East play-in event. Miami additionally gained Tuesday, beating the New York Knicks, and can enter Thursday 1.5 video games up within the standings with a 2-1 lead within the season collection.

A Warmth win Thursday would imply they must go simply 3-3 down the stretch to guarantee ending forward of Philadelphia by advantage of the head-to-head tiebreaker. (The Sixers, who misplaced the season collection 2-1 to the Indiana Pacers, fare no higher in a possible three-team tie.) Miami finishes with back-to-back residence video games in opposition to the lottery-bound Toronto Raptors and is more likely to at the very least break up its ultimate six video games.

If Philly wins to tie the season collection 2-2, that will push the tiebreaker to convention document. At 29-18, the Warmth are at present forward of the 76ers (27-21), however that is not settled but. Maybe extra importantly, a win Thursday would give Philadelphia a practical path to easily end forward of Miami within the standings.

After Miami, the 76ers end the season with 4 of their ultimate 5 video games in opposition to groups with bottom-eight data. Though the Orlando Magic have a greater document, Philadelphia would doubtless be favored within the remaining recreation by advantage of taking part in at residence with a wholesome Embiid.

If the Sixers win out, it is believable they may cross each the Warmth and Pacers and keep away from the play-in altogether. Projections based mostly on ESPN’s Basketball Energy Index (BPI) confirmed Philly claiming a top-six seed in 6% of simulations earlier than Tuesday’s win.

The place the 76ers end has necessary implications for the highest half of the East standings as properly. Not one of the convention’s prime groups wish to face the reigning MVP within the first spherical as a reward for incomes a top-three seed.

If Philadelphia wins the second play-in recreation and claims the eighth seed it will imply a matchup in opposition to the top-seeded Boston Celtics for the second straight yr after the groups met within the 2023 convention semifinals. Count on renewed consideration on the potential for prime seeds getting an opportunity to select their opponents sooner or later.

Whereas the Sixers could be an atypically difficult No. 8 seed, Boston would absolutely be favored in a first-round collection. So too would the No. 2 seed Milwaukee Bucks, albeit by a narrower margin. Whichever group finishes third out of the Cleveland Cavaliers, New York Knicks and Orlando Magic, may discover themselves a first-round underdog in opposition to Philadelphia with Embiid.