Predicting the El Clasico Supercopa closing: Barca or Madrid?

Actual Madrid play Barcelona within the Spanish Supercopa closing on Sunday, giving the competitors the climactic El Clasico conflict its new “closing 4” format was designed to showcase.

It is the primary time since 2020 — when the Supercopa was expanded and moved to Saudi Arabia — that the ultimate will fulfil the event’s unique objective of pitting the reigning LaLiga champions, Barcelona, in opposition to final season’s Copa del Rey winners, Actual Madrid.

It is also a repeat of final 12 months’s Supercopa closing, when a one-sided Clásico contest led to a 3-1 Barca win, setting them up for a triumphant second half of the season, which ended with the league title.

– Stream Supercopa on ESPN+: Barca vs. Actual Madrid (Sunday, 1:30 p.m. ET)

Actual Madrid reached this closing with an exciting 5-3 further time win over Atletico Madrid on Wednesday, earlier than Barca certified with a extra discreet 2-0 victory over Osasuna a day later.

Now the 2 giants go head-to-head on Sunday at Al-Awwal Park in Riyadh with the primary trophy of the Spanish season at stake.

Why Actual Madrid will win

Clásicos are notoriously unpredictable. Type and circumstances are forgotten when the whistle blows. The end result feels nearly solely unrelated to context.

What’s extra, each groups have gamers ok to rework a sport single-handed, rendering irrelevant what’s gone earlier than. Simply have a look at latest conferences between these two.

Barcelona have been fully, overwhelmingly dominant when the groups final met on Oct. 28 in LaLiga. Till, with simply over an hour performed, Jude Bellingham turned the sport at Montjuic on its head with a wide ranging objective out of nowhere — after which a late, dramatic winner — to provide Madrid the three factors.

Bear in mind the final Clásico in a cup competitors: the Copa del Rey semifinal second leg at Camp Nou in April 2023, which Madrid received at a canter, 4-0, simply as Barca have been making ready to raise the league title. Or their final Supercopa assembly in Riyadh, three months earlier, when Barca cruised to a 3-1 victory.

In different phrases, both workforce is greater than able to profitable Sunday, so all the things we are saying ought to be taken with a pinch of salt. Nonetheless, there are many causes for Madridistas to be optimistic.

Wednesday’s gripping 5-3 win over Atletico — during which Actual twice fought again from a objective down, to finally emerge victorious in further time — was extra proof that this workforce does not know when it is crushed. Serial winners like Luka Modric, Toni Kroos and Dani Carvajal may write the guide on what it takes to raise trophies.

Madrid have not misplaced since September. It is a well-balanced workforce that appears harmful in assault, and — regardless of the proof on the contrary within the three objectives conceded in opposition to Atleti — is mostly stable in defence, conceding 11 objectives in 19 LaLiga video games this season.

One other relentless competitor, Antonio Rüdiger, is in the very best type of his time at Madrid. Carvajal was the semifinal’s MVP. Federico Valverde is having a quietly distinctive season in a extra withdrawn midfield function. Then there’s the objective menace and big-game persona of Bellingham.

Madrid’s squad can also be reassuringly deep. On Wednesday, coach Carlo Ancelotti was in a position to name on Kroos, Eduardo Camavinga, Brahim Díaz, Joselu, Dani Ceballos and Arda Güler off the bench to assist get the workforce over the road in further time. Diaz, specifically, has been in electrical kind in latest weeks, forcing his approach into Ancelotti’s plans and providing the workforce one thing completely different in assault.

The most important doubt — and maybe the workforce’s Achilles heel — is available in objective. Kepa Arrizabalaga began on Wednesday and was unconvincing as soon as once more, exhibiting a well-known lack of conviction in coming off his line to fail to cope with Atletico’s third objective. The suspicion is that Ancelotti now prefers Andriy Lunin and has given Kepa minutes on this month’s cup competitions to maintain his confidence up.

If repeated, it is a determination which may value the workforce, when finals are so typically determined by high-quality margins. — Alex Kirkland

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What does Barcelona want to alter to beat Actual Madrid?

Luis Garcia reacts to Barcelona’s 2-0 victory vs. Osasuna and previews the Supercopa de España closing vs. Actual Madrid.

Why Barcelona will win

Barcelona supervisor Xavi Hernández says final season’s Supercopa success, full with the win over Madrid within the closing, gave his gamers the idea they wanted to go on and win LaLiga for the primary time since 2019. He’s hoping for the same “click on” in Riyadh on Sunday to quieten the criticism that has accompanied Barça in latest months.

That criticism peaked in December when a two-game winless run noticed Barça slip seven factors behind LaLiga leaders Madrid and Girona. The complaints prolong past simply outcomes, although, and give attention to the performances produced even when profitable. Earlier than Thursday’s 2-0 win over Osasuna, Barça had not received a sport by greater than a objective since Sept. 19, a run spanning 20 matches, and had not saved a clear sheet since Dec. 3.

With these streaks over, Barça, who’ve now received 4 consecutive matches in all competitions, will method the Clásico with a few of their confidence restored.

Pedri’s return from damage helps. The midfielder got here on for the ultimate half-hour in opposition to Osasuna, coinciding with an upturn in Barça’s show. Xavi stated the Spain worldwide provides “readability” to the workforce’s soccer, whereas midfielder Frenkie de Jong famous Barça are “extra fluid” when he’s on the pitch.

The temptation shall be to begin Pedri on Sunday, though some warning should even be utilized given his latest damage historical past. He has solely been match to begin eight video games this season.

Nonetheless, Pedri’s significance to the system might override any vigilance, with Xavi highlighting Barça’s “DNA and methodology” as the most important causes to consider they’ll emerge victorious this weekend.

“We’ve to take the ball from Madrid and our DNA should shine by greater than ever,” he stated in a information convention on Thursday. “The instance is final 12 months’s closing. Madrid are in higher kind than they have been then, however we are going to attempt to dominate them and play toe-to-toe. It is the best second for us to point out our greatest soccer.”

These are qualities Xavi typically preaches however different attributes led to final 12 months’s LaLiga title, which was constructed on a stable defensive base. That has been misplaced this season, with Barça already conceding extra objectives by 19 LaLiga video games than they did in 38 final 12 months, however a return to final season’s again 4 introduced a clear sheet in opposition to Osasuna. With full-back João Cancelo a doubt to face Madrid, they might follow that recipe of Jules Koundé, Ronald Araújo, Andreas Christensen and Alejandro Balde.

A hamstring damage picked up by Raphinha in opposition to Osasuna might lead Xavi again to choosing 4 midfielders, too, which was the tactic deployed in final season’s closing. Pedri may return alongside De Jong, Ilkay Gündogan and Sergi Roberto to supply management within the center and keep away from an end-to-end sport that will doubtless favour Madrid. It might additionally reserve João Felix and Lamine Yamal for the second half after each gamers made such a huge impact off the bench in opposition to Osasuna. — Sam Marsden

Supercopa closing predictions

Kirkland: Actual Madrid 2-1 Barçelona. Bellingham — who else? — will rating the profitable objective and raise his first trophy with the membership.

Marsden: Barçelona 3-1 Actual Madrid. It is the outdated cliche however kind actually does fly out the window in a Clásico, with the less-fancied workforce typically prevailing. I believe Barça’s want for a giant win may get them over the road on Sunday, simply because it did final 12 months.