NFL Tremendous Bowl LVIII betting information: Props, odds, strains, extra

Tremendous Bowl LVIII between the Kansas Metropolis Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers might be performed on Feb. 11, and the betting market is loaded with participant props. That is why we’re bringing you the betting playbook, highlighting a few of the prime choices for the ultimate recreation of the NFL season.

My weekly betting playbook options a number of knowledge factors for the massive recreation, together with my evaluation of some notable strains I am fascinated by betting, though this text is designed in a manner that means that you can decide your individual favorites.

Completely for ESPN+ members: If you would like to see a listing of round 50 props and my beneficial performs for every, please click on on this hyperlink.

Observe: Odds by ESPN BET and proper as of time of publication.

Kansas Metropolis Chiefs vs. San Francisco 49ers -2
Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas
Feb. 11, 6:30 p.m. ET

Cash line: Kansas Metropolis Chiefs (+108); San Francisco 49ers (-128)
Complete: 47.5; Opened: 47.5
FPI favourite: 49ers by 3.1 (59.4% to win outright)

Clay’s projected rating: 49ers 25, Chiefs 23

• Christian McCaffrey anytime TD (-230): The present that retains on giving, McCaffrey has discovered the tip zone in 24 of his previous 27 video games, scoring 35 whole touchdowns throughout the span. That features precisely two touchdowns in every of the 49ers’ playoff video games over the previous two weeks. Unsurprisingly, McCaffrey’s utilization has seen an uptick throughout the postseason. He has performed on 95% of snaps and has soaked up 37 carries and 17 targets. The Chiefs have not allowed any RB touchdowns throughout the playoffs, however they did give up one in 10 out of 17 regular-season video games. The vig makes this an in depth name, however there’s simply sufficient worth right here to make it worthwhile.

• Isiah Pacheco below 16.5 dashing makes an attempt (-105): Pacheco has accrued 17-plus carries in six of his 17 video games. He averaged 14.6 carries per recreation throughout the common season, although he is posted totals of 24, 15 and 24 throughout Kansas Metropolis’s three playoff video games. The 2 “24 video games” got here in comfy wins over the Dolphins and Ravens, video games through which they ran zero offensive snaps whereas trailing. The “15 recreation” got here in an in depth win over the Payments once they trailed on 79% of snaps. Sport-script splits are notable right here because the Tremendous Bowl is prone to be a aggressive recreation. In reality, the 49ers have led on 55% of their snaps this season, which trails solely the Ravens for many within the NFL. Talking of San Francisco, its protection has confronted 16.5 RB carries per recreation this season, together with a league-low 15.6 per recreation throughout the common season. No again has reached 19 carries towards them in any recreation and solely two even reached 17 (Aaron Jones had 18 within the divisional round and Jerome Ford had 17 in Week 16). Lean below at something near even cash.

• Nick Bosa over 2.5 whole tackles (-170) and over 0.5 assists (-230): I promoted each of those performs final week and Bosa ended up with precisely three solo tackles (certainly one of which was initially an help however later modified to a solo. … Ouch!). Anyway, each stay robust performs even at an uninspiring vig, so I am going again to the properly. Excluding a Week 18 recreation through which he was on the sector for less than seven performs, Bosa has performed on 81% of the 49ers’ defensive snaps this season — and that quantity jumps to 95% throughout the two playoff video games. Bosa is averaging 3.2 whole tackles (with at the very least three in 13 out of 18 video games, together with 12 of his previous 14) and 1.1 assists (with at the very least one in 12 outings) per recreation. There have been 25 cases of an edge rusher registering at the very least three whole tackles and 43 cases of 1 producing at the very least one help towards the Chiefs this season.

• Deebo Samuel below 13.5 dashing yards (-110): Samuel might make this one look foolish with only one contact, however the odds nonetheless favor the below. Samuel has seen his dashing work decline, having totaled simply 40 carries in 17 video games. He fell in need of 14 dashing yards in 11 of these 17 video games, together with six of his previous seven (with a complete of 11 carries for 72 yards throughout the span). Samuel did not have any carries on 9 snaps towards the Packers within the divisional spherical earlier than managing 7 yards on three carries towards Detroit. For what it is value, the Chiefs have confronted 21 WR carries and had as lots of them go for adverse yards (-1 and -5 yards) as they’d lead to over 13 yards (14 and 18 yards).

• Nick Bolton over 2.5 assists (-125): Bolton has battled accidents, however the Chiefs’ prime off-ball linebacker has nonetheless managed at the very least three assists in seven of his 11 video games (64%). One of many exceptions got here final week towards Baltimore in an outlier recreation that noticed the Ravens name solely 11 operating performs (to not point out having simply 57 general snaps). The opposite three exceptions got here in video games when Bolton’s snap share maxed out at 90%. He has performed on at the very least 97% of snaps in all three playoff video games. In whole, he is averaging 3.3 assists. All informed, 25 off-ball linebackers have reached three assists in a recreation towards the 49ers this season.

• Ji’Ayir Brown below 6.5 whole tackles (-150): Brown is a third-round rookie who changed Talanoa Hufanga as a beginning security after he went down with a torn ACL in Week 10. Brown has began six video games since that time and performed on 100% of snaps in these outings. Over this stretch, the rookie has averaged 6.2 whole tackles per recreation, reaching seven tackles solely as soon as — final week towards the Lions in a recreation the place the 49ers’ protection was on the sector for a hefty 72 performs (tied for its second-highest whole of the season). The Chiefs enable tackles to safeties at a below-average price, which provides extra motivation for taking the below.

• Trent McDuffie below 1.5 assists (-190): McDuffie has posted an help whole of both zero or one in 12 out of 19 video games (63%), together with 5 of his previous six. He is averaging 1.2 per recreation for the season. The vig is ugly right here, but it surely’s value a glance as a result of matchup. The 49ers have allowed 10.4 tackles per recreation to opposing cornerbacks this season, which is lowest within the league. Solely 10 corners have accrued multiple help in a recreation towards them and solely a kind of reached three assists.

• Justin Watson below 1.5 receptions (-120): Watson had at the very least two receptions in seven of his first 9 video games of the season, however his utilization has decreased since Rashee Rice’s emergence. Since Week 12, Watson has fewer than two catches in eight out of 10 video games. The veteran receiver has a grand whole of three catches on 5 targets over the Chiefs’ three playoff video games. Even when focused two or thrice, Watson is a longshot to catch a number of passes contemplating his function. He completed the common season with a WR-high 17.3 common depth of goal, leading to only a 50% catch price (79th among the many 80 certified wideouts).