NFL playoffs: NFC, AFC championship preview, schedule, odds

All 4 divisional spherical video games are within the books because the NFL playoffs preserve rolling alongside, and subsequent weekend’s convention championship recreation matchups are set. Within the NFC Championship Recreation, the Lions will play the 49ers in San Francisco for an opportunity to go to the Tremendous Bowl. On the opposite facet of the bracket, the Ravens will host the Chiefs within the AFC Championship Recreation.

To get you prepared for the two-game slate, Stephen Holder picked out the largest factor to observe in each matchups, and Seth Walder explored how all 4 groups can win to succeed in Tremendous Bowl LVIII. Recreation traces are by way of ESPN BET.

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Chiefs-Ravens | Lions-49ers

AFC Championship Recreation

When: Sunday, Jan. 28 at 3 p.m. ET (CBS)

Opening line: BAL -3 (44.5)

What to know: The best substances for profitable within the postseason would appear to be an elite quarterback and an elite protection. That brings us to the Ravens, simply the fourth staff for the reason that 1970 merger to have a first-team All-Professional quarterback and the No. 1 scoring protection within the NFL. The three earlier groups to take action — the 1972 Dolphins, 1978 Steelers and 1996 Packers — all went on to win the Tremendous Bowl.

That is the mixture of things working within the Ravens’ favor subsequent Sunday. With quarterback Lamar Jackson coming off a historic efficiency in opposition to the Texans (two speeding TDs and two TD passes) and the Ravens’ protection limiting Houston to its second-lowest yardage whole of the season (213), this looks as if a very full staff.

However do not anticipate the Chiefs to be in the slightest degree fazed by any of this after overcoming the Payments on the highway in one other memorable matchup between the budding rivals. After being handled to at least one premier quarterback matchup in Patrick Mahomes vs. Josh Allen on Sunday, the AFC playoffs will serve up one other within the championship recreation, when Mahomes and the Chiefs go to Jackson the Ravens.

The Chiefs are 3-2 in AFC title video games with Mahomes underneath middle. However there is a key distinction this season: The Chiefs have arguably the most effective protection within the Mahomes period. They completed the season second in scoring protection and yards allowed. No Kansas Metropolis staff has been increased than seventh in both metric in Mahomes’ tenure. — Holder

Why the Ravens will win: Either side of the ball are on fireplace for Baltimore. Let’s begin with the protection, the place the Ravens allowed zero offensive touchdowns within the divisional spherical in opposition to the Texans. The Ravens’ protection did not blink in opposition to Houston the way in which the Browns did within the wild-card spherical, and the unit was dominant, significantly in opposition to the run, the place Baltimore allowed negative-0.29 EPA per play. It is nothing new for the Ravens’ protection, which now ranks first in EPA per play over the course of the season, playoffs included.

Regardless of the identify model of the Chiefs, the truth of this matchup is that Baltimore’s protection has been a lot, a lot better than the Kansas Metropolis offense. The Chiefs have been ranked tenth in EPA per play coming into Sunday.

Offensively, the Ravens are on nearly as robust of a roll. They have been good all season, and kicked it up a notch within the playoffs. Jackson posted a 94 QBR in opposition to Houston, and on his run performs or dropbacks, the Ravens accrued 0.41 EPA per play. In different phrases, each 5 of Jackson’s performs added two full factors to the Ravens’ anticipated scoring margin. The Chiefs’ protection will present extra resistance than Houston did, however Kansas Metropolis ranked Eleventh in EPA per play allowed in opposition to opposing QB scrambles or runs. And general, the Chiefs are merely weaker in opposition to the run, rating twenty sixth in EPA per opponent designed carry. It could possibly be one other large day for Jackson. — Walder

Why the Chiefs will win: It is nonetheless Mahomes with the most effective protection he has ever had. The Chiefs nonetheless have Andy Reid calling performs, a breakout receiver in Rashee Rice and an offensive line that protects Mahomes. And tight finish Travis Kelce simply had two touchdowns within the divisional spherical.

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Mahomes, Kelce TD connection units NFL postseason file

Patrick Mahomes connects once more with Travis Kelce for a Chiefs landing, giving them a postseason file of 16 TDs as QB-receiver duo.

Regardless of all that has gone flawed this season — most notably the receivers’ league-worst 5.7% drop fee coming into Sunday and their incapability to help Mahomes and the offense at an elite stage — all the above means the Chiefs have an opportunity to attain loads of factors within the AFC Championship Recreation. Plus, whereas the Ravens led the league in sacks within the common season, Mahomes merely refuses to take them. His 3.9% sack fee and 13.8% sack-to-pressure fee rank second within the NFL behind Allen.

And whereas Buffalo moved the ball at will at instances in opposition to the Chiefs, the lengthy view of the protection is it’s nonetheless among the best teams within the league, rating fourth in EPA per play allowed. Ultimately, Kansas Metropolis stored the Payments out of the top zone, too.

The Chiefs are underdogs and deservedly so, however they only beat Baltimore’s largest challenger within the AFC. They will beat the Ravens themselves, too. — Walder

NFC Championship Recreation

When: Sunday, Jan. 28 at 6:30 p.m. ET (Fox)

Opening line: SF -7 (51.5)

What to know: The 49ers have not gained a Tremendous Bowl since 1994. To place that in perspective, quarterback Steve Younger threw three landing passes to Jerry Rice in that Tremendous Bowl XXIX win over the Chargers. Nonetheless, the Niners might be making their seventh look within the NFC Championship Recreation since 2011. San Francisco has gone 2-4 in these video games, three of which have come underneath coach Kyle Shanahan since 2019. Shanahan has an opportunity to go Invoice Walsh for the most effective postseason win share in membership historical past with a win over Detroit.

As for quarterback Brock Purdy, he is attempting to construct a legacy of his personal, and profitable this recreation would go a great distance after he was knocked out of the convention title recreation with an elbow harm final season. However the Lions are additionally attempting to rewrite the historical past books. By profitable two playoff video games for the primary time since 1957, they’ve already carried out one thing most Lions followers have by no means personally witnessed. And the Lions are doing it with an explosive offense that figures to check the 49ers’ elite protection.

Orchestrating all of it is quarterback Jared Goff, who is likely one of the greatest tales on this NFL season. After powering the Lions with 287 passing yards and two landing passes in Sunday’s win over Tampa Bay, the Rams castoff has an opportunity to go to his second Tremendous Bowl. If he takes the Lions to Las Vegas, they may simply construct him a statue within the Motor Metropolis. — Holder

Why the 49ers will win: Sure, Purdy’s efficiency within the divisional spherical in opposition to the Packers — when he posted a negative-6% completion share over expectation, per NFL Subsequent Gen Stats — brought about concern. However one of the best ways to evaluate a staff is with an extended lens, and after we do this the 49ers nonetheless look lots menacing.

And let’s take into consideration the matchup right here. The 49ers have probably the most environment friendly passing offense in soccer. What’s the Lions’ large weak spot? Defending the go. Getting into Sunday, the Lions ranked thirtieth in EPA allowed per opposing dropback. San Francisco’s plethora of offensive playmakers might be a nightmare for Detroit, and whereas the Lions’ offense can also be efficient, they do not have close to the identical firepower.

Plus, the 49ers have stars galore on protection to counter. Edge rusher Nick Bosa and defensive deal with Javon Hargrave lead a go rush that may get stress on the quarterback regardless of blitzing solely 20% of the time (sixth lowest), and cornerback Charvarius Ward and linebacker Fred Warner ought to be capable of at the very least mitigate Detroit’s Amon-Ra St. Brown and Sam LaPorta. — Walder

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Amon-Ra St. Brown hauls it in for a Lions TD

Jared Goff lofts one into the top zone for Amon-Ra St. Brown to increase the Lions’ lead.

Why the Lions will win: The Lions have two main components working for them within the NFC Championship Recreation. First, a shaky Purdy. Till his game-winning drive in opposition to the Packers, Purdy regarded lots fallible. He has led an ultra-efficient offense over the course of the season, but when he is rattled in any respect, that offers Detroit hope.

Second, one factor you are able to do in opposition to the 49ers is run on them. That performs proper into the Lions’ energy, as they rushed for 114 yards in opposition to Tampa Bay. They lean run-heavy, with the Eleventh-highest run fee over expectation, per NFL Subsequent Gen Stats, and but they’re the sixth-most environment friendly operating staff within the league when it comes to EPA per play, due to robust play from David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs.

Lastly, the 49ers are some of the environment friendly go defenses due to their skill to defend deep throws, rating third in EPA per play allowed on makes an attempt of 20 or extra air yards. However that is a wasted ability in opposition to Detroit, which throws deep simply 7% of the time, the bottom fee within the NFL. The Lions will want the ball to bounce their manner a number of instances, however they actually have hope. — Walder