All six wild-card video games are within the books, and the divisional spherical matchups are lastly set. Within the AFC, the Texans will journey to Baltimore to play the Ravens, whereas the Chiefs will head to Buffalo to face the Payments. On the NFC facet, the Packers will see the 49ers in San Francisco, and the Lions will host the Buccaneers after Tampa Bay beat Philadelphia on Monday night time.
Let’s look forward to the divisional spherical schedule, which is able to embody the primary postseason video games for the Niners and the Ravens, who every had a bye. To get you prepared for subsequent week’s slate, Stephen Holder picked out the most important factor to look at in every matchup, and Seth Walder explored how every crew can win to advance to the convention championships. We additionally supplied projections from ESPN’s Soccer Energy Index (FPI) and opening traces from ESPN BET.
Bounce to a matchup:
GB-SF | TB-DET | HOU-BAL | KC-BUF
NFC
When: Saturday, 8:15 p.m. ET (Fox)
FPI projection: SF, 78.6%
Opening line: SF -9.5 (50.5)
What to know: Packers quarterback Jordan Love confirmed beautiful accuracy in opposition to the Cowboys’ edge rush and protection in his playoff debut Sunday. However the problem posed by the rested 49ers offers a fair greater take a look at. San Francisco quarterback Brock Purdy is not any postseason rookie, and he has some unfinished enterprise after his scorching begin within the 2022 playoffs was short-circuited by an elbow harm within the NFC Championship Sport.
With Niners coach Kyle Shanahan aiming to enhance his postseason document to 7-3 (over seven seasons), search for San Francisco to rely closely on Christian McCaffrey and the working recreation. That is the place this matchup might flip, permitting the 49ers to assault a Inexperienced Bay weak spot. No NFL crew had extra working performs of 10 or extra yards than San Francisco’s 74 within the common season. In the meantime, the Packers rank twenty ninth in dashing yards in opposition to after first contact (906) and twenty third in yards allowed per rush (4.4). — Holder
Why the 49ers will win: Why will not they win? I can ask that query from now till the Tremendous Bowl, as a result of after the Packers dismantled the Cowboys, that left San Francisco with no main risk remaining within the convention. The 49ers are the perfect crew in soccer, they usually’re the perfect crew left within the NFC, by far.
San Francisco boasts the perfect trait a Tremendous Bowl hopeful can have: the No. 1 offense (together with the No. 1 passing offense). And it is by rather a lot. The Niners’ 0.16 anticipated factors added (EPA) per play was nicely forward of the No. 2 crew, the already-eliminated Dolphins at 0.12. Purdy is supported by an absurd set of playmakers in McCaffrey, Brandon Aiyuk, Deebo Samuel and George Kittle. Oh, and do not forget the protection, with Nick Bosa, Javon Hargrave and Chase Younger dashing the passer. The 49ers have so many strengths that they do not even want all of them to click on to win. — Walder
Why the Packers will win: The flip facet of all of the compliments I bestowed on San Francisco is that they’re all unhealthy information for Inexperienced Bay. These two groups are usually not in the identical league. Nevertheless it’s soccer. Issues occur. The Packers might win, and it begins with Love — not simply because he is the quarterback however due to the sort of quarterback he has advanced into over the course of the marketing campaign. From Week 10 till the tip of the common season, Love completed second in QBR. The one signal-caller forward of him? Dak Prescott, whom Love simply outdueled within the wild-card spherical.
Defensively, although the Packers have been disappointing all season, that is nonetheless a proficient group. Might the Packers put all of it collectively of their largest recreation of the season? It stays doable. Turnovers, fortunate bounces and an A-game from their protection are most likely all obligatory for the Packers to drag off this upset. Nevertheless it might occur. — Walder
When: Sunday, 3 p.m. ET (NBC)
FPI projection: DET, 62.5%
Opening line: DET -6 (48.5)
What to know: The Lions have the possibility to make extra historical past by profitable a number of playoff video games in the identical season for the primary time since their 1957 championship run. Little question, Eminem will wish to present up for that. It is no thriller how they’ve gotten right here, both. Town of Detroit may embrace its underdog character, however after beating the Rams to advance, the Lions might be favored right here due to their productive offense. They ranked within the high 5 this season in yards per play (third), scoring (fifth), passing yards (second) and dashing yards (fifth). The Lions displayed that offensive proficiency in a 20-6 regular-season win over the Buccaneers, outgaining Tampa Bay 380 yards to 251 in October.
However the Bucs have gained six out of seven — together with Monday night time’s victory over the Eagles — and are an skilled bunch with regards to postseason play. Tom Brady is gone, however most of the teammates who joined him in these playoff appearances stay. They will not be intimidated by the stakes. — Holder
Why Lions will win: Edge rusher Aidan Hutchinson is immediately enjoying at a distinct stage. He has at all times been good, however the superior metrics had been by no means improbable. Now? He is immediately on a three-game multiple-sack streak. And he posted a 33% go rush win charge within the wild-card spherical — the very best of any participant within the playoffs getting into Monday night time. In opposition to Tampa Bay sort out Luke Goedeke (who registered a below-average 86% go block win charge within the common season), Hutchinson has the benefit, and that would make an enormous distinction for the protection — the unit that’s purported to be Detroit’s weak spot.
Pat McAfee particulars how Inexperienced Bay crushed the Cowboys
Pat McAfee praises Jordan Love and the Packers for dominating the Cowboys in Dallas.
The opposite facet of the ball is clicking beneath offensive coordinator Ben Johnson, who’s getting probably the most out of quarterback Jared Goff. Tight finish Sam LaPorta, who missed the second half of the Lions’ regular-season finale due to a left knee harm, was in a position to return to motion Sunday. And Detroit has top-of-the-line working video games within the league. Let’s be actual: The Lions are the superior crew right here. They simply must play as much as their capacity. — Walder
Why Buccaneers will win: If you happen to squint at these groups’ strengths and weaknesses, you may see a path for the Bucs. Their offense is imbalanced. They cannot run the ball, however their go recreation has been pretty efficient all season with Baker Mayfield. Tampa Bay ranked ninth in EPA per dropback (0.10) within the common season. That is simply tremendous in opposition to Detroit. The Lions’ run protection is stable; go protection is the place they battle.
With a purpose to beat Philadelphia, the Bucs deployed their typical blitz-heavy technique: They blitzed on 40% of opponent dropbacks within the common season, third most within the league, and it labored in opposition to the Eagles. Might it work once more versus Detroit? The Lions aren’t blitz beaters. Goff’s QBR dropped from eleventh general to fifteenth when going through the blitz. Combine in a bit of luck, and you may’t rule Tampa Bay out. — Walder
AFC
When: Saturday, 4:30 p.m. ET (ESPN/ABC/ESPN+)
FPI projection: BAL, 81.7%
Opening line: BAL -9 (45.5)
What to know: Welcome again to the postseason, Lamar Jackson. The main candidate for NFL MVP will begin his first postseason recreation for the reason that 2020 season. Jackson was injured and missed Baltimore’s lone playoff recreation final season, however his presence provides the Ravens their largest purpose for optimism in making a run on the Tremendous Bowl.
For the Texans, it is an opportunity to shock the world. However for rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud and rookie coach DeMeco Ryans, it will likely be a large take a look at in opposition to a Baltimore protection that led the NFL in sacks in the course of the common season (60). Houston might be going through the most popular crew within the league down the stretch, because the Ravens gained six of their previous seven video games. And since Week 11, Baltimore has the very best level margin within the NFL (plus-90). — Holder
Why the Ravens will win: The 2023 Ravens’ protection completed sixth in EPA per play (minus-0.1) amongst all groups over the previous 10 seasons. Baltimore’s unimaginable protection — with all its simulated stress that appears to always create sack alternatives — provides the Ravens an incredible likelihood in opposition to anybody.
I have never even talked about the seemingly league MVP but. Jackson completed the season scorching, with unimaginable performances in opposition to the 49ers and the Dolphins to shut out his common season (he sat in Week 18). With actual receivers on this offense, together with Zay Flowers and Odell Beckham Jr., each play is a continuing twin risk of Jackson’s legs and arm. Baltimore can win with offense or protection (heck, and even particular groups). And that is why the Ravens are so robust. — Walder
Why the Texans will win: Nicely, how about Stroud? Certain, there are different causes — from receiver Nico Collins to rookie edge rusher Will Anderson Jr. — to love Houston, however what Stroud has accomplished in current weeks provides the Texans hope in opposition to anybody. And that features Baltimore. Since Week 16, Stroud ranks third in QBR, behind solely Jackson and Love. Stroud is a rookie rising into the skilled quarterback he’ll grow to be earlier than our eyes, and the development is going on quick. He is already on the level that Houston has grow to be harmful.
Oh, and the one protection that was higher than Baltimore this season? Cleveland. And Stroud dealt with that take a look at simply tremendous within the wild-card spherical. — Walder
When: Sunday, 6:30 p.m. ET (CBS)
FPI projection: BUF, 56.6%
Opening line: BUF -2.5 (45.5)
What to know: Time to hit the street, Patrick Mahomes. The Chiefs quarterback will play a street playoff recreation for the primary time in his sensible profession, giving the Payments one other shot at a crew that has ousted them from the playoffs twice previously three seasons. In a rematch of the time beyond regulation playoff basic between these groups within the 2021 divisional spherical, the Chiefs and Payments will meet once more at Highmark Stadium.
Each golf equipment gained their opening-round video games with relative ease, with the Chiefs eliminating the Dolphins and the Payments sending the Steelers dwelling. The depth will get ratcheted up subsequent weekend, although. Mahomes wasn’t notably fazed by enjoying on the street this season, finishing 69.7% of his go makes an attempt. And he’s 38-11 on the street within the common season for his profession, probably the most wins by any QB of their first 50 street begins since 1950, per ESPN Stats & Info. However Mahomes additionally had eight interceptions in video games performed away from Arrowhead in 2023. Will that development proceed in Buffalo? — Holder
Why the Payments will win: Did you see Josh Allen’s 52-yard landing run? For all the eye centered on Allen’s errors, Buffalo has top-of-the-line offenses within the league due to how harmful he might be whereas creating on his personal. He generated double the EPA (60.2) of every other quarterback on designed carries and scrambles this season.
Outdueling Mahomes is one thing solely totally different than besting Mason Rudolph, like Allen did simply within the wild-card spherical. However on paper, the Payments have the higher offense, and it isn’t even shut. That is crucial benefit to have on this recreation. — Walder
Stephen A. impressed by physicality of the Lions
Stephen A. Smith discusses the assertion the Lions made with their win over the Rams.
Why the Chiefs will win: The Chiefs might be underdogs, however they’ve a few key components (past the plain of Mahomes) working of their favor. First, the emergence of receiver Rashee Rice. The Chiefs’ offense was plagued all through the season by the dearth of a second receiving choice past an ageing and declining Travis Kelce. Rice, who produced a robust 2.6 yards per route run within the common season, performed an rising position because the 12 months went on after which exploded within the wild-card spherical for 130 yards on eight receptions in opposition to the Dolphins. The Chiefs may need discovered the playmaker they wanted simply in time.
Second, Kansas Metropolis’s protection is legit. Certain, the climate may need hindered the Dolphins on Saturday. Nevertheless it took greater than low temperatures to carry what was the second-best offense in soccer within the common season to only seven factors. The Chiefs’ protection moved as much as fourth in EPA per play (minus-0.06) for the season with its efficiency. That facet of the ball completely provides them an opportunity in opposition to Buffalo. — Walder