NFL convention championship betting information: Props, odds, traces, extra

The NFL’s convention championships are Sunday, and the betting market is loaded with participant props. That is why we’re bringing you the NFL betting playbook, highlighting a few of the high choices for every of this weekend’s pivotal playoff video games.

My weekly betting playbook options a number of information factors for each of this weekend’s video games, together with my evaluation of some notable traces I am taken with betting, though this text is designed in a manner that lets you choose your individual favorites.

Completely for ESPN+ members: If you would like to see a listing of round 100 props and my really helpful performs for every, please click on on this hyperlink.

Be aware: Odds by ESPN BET and proper as of time of publication.

Kansas Metropolis Chiefs @ Baltimore Ravens -3.5
M&T Financial institution Stadium, Baltimore
Sunday, 3 p.m. ET

Cash line: Kansas Metropolis Chiefs (+170); Baltimore Ravens (-200)
Whole: 44.5; Opened: 46.5
FPI favourite: Ravens by 4.6 (63.6% to win outright)

Clay’s projected rating: Ravens 26, Chiefs 20

• Patrick Mahomes over 36.5 passing makes an attempt (-110): I am doubling down right here, as I really helpful this similar play final week, and we took certainly one of our solely L’s throughout the playoffs. The loss was a little bit of a nasty beat, because the Chiefs ran 47 offensive snaps, which was a season low by six performs (they’d averaged 60.1 snaps per recreation of their prior 18 video games). Kansas Metropolis nonetheless referred to as a pass-first offense after working the league’s game-script-adjusted, pass-heaviest scheme throughout the common season. Together with final week’s season-low 23, Mahomes is now averaging 36.7 passing makes an attempt per recreation. That quantity jumps to 40.0 per recreation in Kansas Metropolis’s six losses (38-plus in 5 of these six), which is notable, because the Chiefs are street underdogs. Mahomes has averaged 40.1 makes an attempt per recreation in his 4 profession video games in opposition to Baltimore (37-plus in three out of the 4, and all three of these have been wins). The Ravens confronted 37.1 passing makes an attempt per recreation throughout the common season (second most), with 10 out of 18 opponents reaching 37 makes an attempt.

• Roquan Smith over 2.5 assists (-135): Smith has performed on 97% of Baltimore’s defensive snaps throughout 17 energetic video games this season. The every-down off-ball linebacker averaged 4.5 assists throughout these video games, having reached three in 15 out of 17.

• Justin Madubuike over 2.5 whole tackles (-135) and over 0.5 assists (-230): Madubuike has been a mainstay for Baltimore at defensive deal with this season, having performed on 66% of snaps throughout 18 video games. The four-year vet is averaging 3.3 whole and 1.1 assists per recreation. He is reached three whole tackles in 12 video games (together with 11 of his final 14) and has not less than one help in 12 video games (together with six of his final seven).

• Justin Reid beneath 2.5 assists (-190): Reid not often leaves the sphere (he is performed on 97% of the Chiefs’ defensive snaps in 18 video games this season) and but he would not generate many assists. The standout security is averaging 1.3 helpers per recreation and has reached three in solely three of these 18 outings. One of many three exceptions got here in opposition to the Payments final week, however observe that Reid had season-high marks in snaps (75) and whole tackles (11) in what was an unusually high-volume recreation for the protection.

Detroit Lions @ San Francisco 49ers -7
Levi’s Stadium, Santa Clara, California
Sunday, 6:30 p.m. ET

Cash line: Detroit Lions (+260); San Francisco 49ers (-320)
Whole: 50.5; Opened: 51.5
FPI favourite: 49ers by 8.5 (74.1% to win outright)

Clay’s projected rating: 49ers 30, Lions 26

• Brandon Aiyuk beneath 5.5 receptions (-165): That is Aiyuk’s highest reception line of the season, which makes it a reasonably simple fade. Aiyuk caught three passes in opposition to the Packers final week and is averaging 4.6 per recreation in 17 outings this season. He is reached six receptions solely 5 instances. Deebo Samuel could possibly be sidelined, however observe that within the three video games Samuel was out or barely performed throughout the common season, Aiyuk’s catch totals have been 4, 5, 5 and three. San Francisco’s wideouts ranked thirtieth in targets as a bunch throughout the common season.

• David Montgomery over 1.5 receptions (+122): Montgomery caught three passes final week in opposition to the Buccaneers and has now managed not less than two receptions in seven of his 16 video games this season. He is run routes on 32% of Detroit’s passing performs, although that utilization has elevated throughout the playoffs (40% in opposition to the Rams, 43% in opposition to Tampa Bay). The 49ers confronted the third-most passing makes an attempt and allowed the fifth-most RB receptions throughout the common season. Together with final week’s win, San Francisco has allowed two-plus receptions to 26 RBs in 18 video games.

• Jameson Williams beneath 2.5 receptions (-120): Williams has had precisely two receptions in three straight video games and has reached three catches solely twice in his 20 profession video games. Regardless of seeing his snap share bump as much as 63% since Week 11, Williams hasn’t been focused a lot (3.3 per recreation throughout the span) and has a complete of simply 9 targets over his final three outings.

• Nick Bosa over 2.5 whole tackles (-180), over 0.5 assists (-210), beneath 0.5 sacks (+125): There’s a bunch of worth on Bosa this week. Excluding a Week 18 recreation during which he was on the sphere for under seven performs, Bosa has performed on a wholesome 80% of the 49ers’ defensive snaps. He is averaging 3.2 whole tackles (three-plus in 12 out of 17, together with 11 of his previous 13) and 1.1 assists (not less than one in 12 outings) per recreation. Detroit has allowed 10.4 tackles per recreation to opposing edge rushers (seventh highest). Even at an unpleasant vig, the deal with overs are value a glance. The “beneath” on sacks at plus cash can be engaging, as Bosa has 10.5 sacks on the season and has fallen wanting one full sack in 10 out of 17 video games, together with three straight. Taking part in behind Detroit’s terrific line, Jared Goff has had one of many league’s lowest sack charges in each of the previous two seasons. He is been sacked at a charge of 1.8 per recreation in 19 outings this season.

• Arik Armstead over 0.5 assists (-190): Armstead has had not less than one help in 9 out of 13 video games this season (1.1 per recreation), together with six straight (1.7 per recreation throughout the span). He missed a piece of the common season on account of harm, however performed on a beneficiant 68% of snaps in opposition to Inexperienced Bay final week whereas registering two assists.

• Alex Anzalone over 4.5 solos (-115): Anzalone not often leaves the sphere, having performed on 98% of Detroit’s defensive snaps in 18 energetic video games this season. He averaged 5.3 solos per recreation throughout these outings, hitting 5 in 12 of the video games, together with five-plus in 4 consecutive contests.