MLB franchise shortstop draft: Witt, Henderson or Seager No. 1?

The shortstop place is totally loaded in Main League Baseball.

One of many largest debates forward of the 2024 MLB All-Star Recreation is who must be the beginning shortstop for the American League: reigning Rookie of the 12 months Gunnar Henderson or budding famous person Bobby Witt Jr.?

Nicely, the primary fan voting numbers are in, and they’re No. 1 and a couple of, respectively, as they battle for his or her first Midsummer Traditional nod. However in the event you take a look at among the different names getting votes in each leagues, you may discover it goes nicely past these two. One other under-25 shortstop rounds out the highest 3 vote-getters within the AL — Anthony Volpe — and he is adopted by two-time World Collection MVP Corey Seager. Within the Nationwide League, Mookie Betts already has greater than 1,000,000 votes (however will miss the sport after breaking his hand), and he is adopted by two superstars in Trea Turner and Elly De La Cruz. And that is with out even moving into the highest prospect within the minors proper now: the Baltimore Orioles’ Jackson Holliday, one other shortstop.

Which raises the query: When you may construct a staff round a cornerstone shortstop proper now, who would you’re taking? We challenged our baseball consultants to take part in an MLB shortstop draft. Under are their picks for the participant they’d most need over the following 5 years — and why they selected them.

Chosen by: Buster Olney

Why he is the shortstop to construct round: Your superb shortstop would examine each field — somebody who excels at protection, somebody who will get on base at a excessive degree, somebody who hits for energy, somebody who runs nicely, somebody with the form of athleticism that can permit him to age nicely and never develop into too large for the place. That is Bobby Witt Jr., who has wonderful defensive metrics, who’s on observe to rack up greater than 200 hits and 130 runs, greater than 80 extra-base hits and near 50 stolen bases. He performs with an ease that you simply typically see in sons of former MLB gamers; his consolation zone is anyplace on a baseball discipline, in essentially the most pivotal moments.

One stat that proves it: Witt’s 11 Outs Above Common are essentially the most of any shortstop this season. Actually, that is tied for essentially the most OAA for any participant at any place. (Marcus Semien additionally has 11). The subsequent closest shortstops have eight.

No. 2 choose: Gunnar Henderson, Baltimore Orioles

Chosen by: Xavier Scruggs

Why he is the shortstop to construct round: Henderson is surpassing expectations as a World Collection-contending franchise shortstop, and I’d’ve taken him even when I had the No. 1 draft alternative for that purpose. The 22-year-old has dismissed any indicators of slowing down after his American League Rookie of the 12 months marketing campaign and has already proven to be the most efficient shortstop within the recreation proper now, in keeping with Wins Above Substitute (bWAR 4.9).

Simply choose any device you want from a generational shortstop: velocity, contact, energy, arm power, protection. He possesses all of them. What in the end separates Henderson from his friends is the rapid influence on the prime of the order felt by opposing groups. He gained AL ROY final 12 months, and at the moment he is second to Aaron Choose in AL MVP odds. Perhaps the Cal Ripken Jr. comparisons aren’t far off in any case.

One stat that proves it: Gunnar Henderson is on tempo for 50 homers. There have been solely 5 events when a shortstop has hit 45 or extra homers with Alex Rodriguez the final to take action (2003 Rangers, 47HR).

Chosen by: Jorge Castillo

Why he is the shortstop to construct round: My choice right here got here right down to Seager and Betts. I went with Seager as a result of I consider he’ll stay at shortstop considerably longer. There aren’t 5 higher hitters on this planet than Seager when he is wholesome. And that is the caveat: When he is wholesome. Simply final season, he completed second within the AL MVP vote regardless of taking part in in solely 119 video games. Then he went on a postseason rampage for the second time in 4 years.

He is not essentially the most glamorous defender, however he handles routine performs and will keep at shortstop via his age-35 season. Even when he strikes to a different place — first or third base is almost certainly — his bat would greater than maintain up. That brief, candy swing ought to age simply high quality — so long as he stays on the sphere to inflict harm.

One stat that proves it: 4 gamers have gained a number of World Collection MVP Awards: Sandy Koufax, Bob Gibson, Reggie Jackson … and Seager. Jackson and Seager are the one ones to do it on completely different groups. The aim is to hoist the World Collection trophy, and Seager has been the engine for 2 championship golf equipment in October. He’s one among his technology’s best postseason performers.

Chosen by: Kiley McDaniel

Why he is the shortstop to construct round: De La Cruz is within the small group within the dialog for many dynamic and uncommon athlete in our lifetime — in any sport. Simply ask Snoop Dogg. He’s nonetheless simply 22 years previous, has performed 169 profession large league video games, and he is within the prime 15 gamers within the league in WAR this season. The priority coming into the large leagues is the poor pitch choice he confirmed within the minors. That will be the factor that might make up for the dearth of common he’ll hit for as a consequence of being 6-foot-5 (i.e. having lengthy arms) and leaning into energy in his method. Let’s use essentially the most fundamental measure of pitch choice: De La Cruz had a 5% stroll fee within the minors in 2021, then 7.5% in 2022, then 10% between Triple-A and the large leagues in 2023, and now practically 12% this season — all whereas being younger for each degree.

It is not simply uncooked instruments resulting in his success, it is also an unbelievable really feel for the sport, however do not get it twisted: His instruments are historic. There’s an argument that De La Cruz is a top-of-the-scale 80 runner (on the 20-80 scouting scale) with 80-grade uncooked energy and an 80-grade arm, which places him in a gaggle with a handful of gamers within the historical past of baseball, or perhaps simply Bo Jackson. Not one of the candidates for that group had been additionally plus defenders at shortstop with a plus eye on the plate. Elly De La Cruz is inevitable.

One stat that proves it: 80%. He is at that percentile or greater amongst all large leaguers, per Baseball Savant, in common exit velo, bat velocity, barrel fee, stroll fee, vary, arm power, defensive runs saved and dash velocity. These primarily cowl every of the 5 instruments, confirming with numbers — at age 22! — what our eyes also can see. Oh, and he is on tempo to steal 82 bases this 12 months, too. The upside is clearly there, and it is already displaying up on the sphere, with loads extra enchancment to return.

Chosen by: Jeff Passan

Why he is the shortstop to construct round: Sure, we did this draft earlier than Betts’ left hand was damaged by an errant 98-mph fastball. No, I nonetheless do not remorse the selection. It is troublesome to go up on a first-ballot Corridor of Famer when he is there with the fifth choose, even when he is harm. Betts will play the following 4 years at ages 32-35, and metrics counsel he is obtained a protracted technique to go to grasp protection on the place. However with a bat like Betts’, even mediocre protection on the place makes him among the many greatest. He hits for common. He’s an on-base machine. He is obtained bountiful slug. He is an excellent baserunner. Maybe he strikes off brief — again to proper discipline, the place he gained six Gold Gloves, or second base, the place he graded out as plus. Versatility is a trademark within the fashionable recreation, and nobody embodies it like Betts.

One stat that proves it: A 46-to-33 walk-to-strikeout ratio illustrates the elite nature of Betts’ swing choices and bat management. Even when Betts loses a few of his explosiveness as he ages, he already manages to do adequate harm with below-average bat velocity as a result of his elite plate self-discipline juices the remainder of his instruments.

Chosen by: Jesse Rogers

Why he is the shortstop to construct round: Regardless of the facility/velocity potential of among the youthful shortstops, Trea Turner has already produced many instances in that twin function. They could not make a 30-for-30 documentary on his 2023 season, however after such a foul begin to his profession in Philly, he nonetheless managed to go 30-for-30 in stolen bases whereas hitting 26 residence runs final 12 months. And that was thought-about a down season for him. Sure, age might be an element over the following 5 years — Turner is 30 now — however Marcus Semien is an effective instance of a participant performing into his early 30s with out problem. There is not any purpose Turner cannot hold producing 20/20 or 30/30 seasons over the following few years — with out the volatility that among the others on this listing present.

One stat that proves it: Turner has already hit 19 or extra residence runs and stolen 30 or extra bases in each full 12 months since 2019 — save 2022 when he stole solely 27.

No. 7 choose: Jackson Holliday, Baltimore Orioles

Chosen by: David Schoenfield

Why he is the shortstop to construct round: I debated between Holliday and Anthony Volpe, who could also be on his technique to a 5-WAR season for the Yankees. Sure, Holliday struggled large time in his 10-game trial, however this is the purpose to emphasise: At age 20, Volpe was in Class A; at age 20, Holliday has a .433 OBP in Triple-A with 23 extra-base hits in 50 video games. Originally of the season, Holliday’s potential was in comparison with Witt and Henderson. Do not let 10 video games change that narrative. Whereas his future in Baltimore is at second base, for our fictional staff he is our franchise shortstop.

One stat that proves it: To additional that time, Holliday has an .898 OPS at Triple-A. Witt had a .933 OPS at Triple-A, however was a 12 months older. Henderson posted an .894 OPS at Norfolk, however was additionally a 12 months older (and had twice as many strikeouts as walks whereas Holliday has a good ratio). Holliday should still be rising into his energy.

Chosen by: Doug Glanville

Why he is the shortstop to construct round: Volpe has taken large steps since final season. The onerous work he put in throughout the offseason is the mark of a younger shortstop who’s dedicated to getting higher. There is no such thing as a such factor as taking part in underneath the radar in New York — it is a spot that may swallow shortstops entire — and the native child is greater than holding his personal. Volpe does all of it on a baseball discipline. He is a Gold Glove defender, a superb base runner who steals at will, and he has pop. He even efficiently adjusted his swing for extra contact.

Simply 23, he has a protracted technique to go, and he has the time to take these incremental steps to make him an All-Star. Final 12 months, Yankees supervisor Aaron Boone was typically requested whether or not Volpe wanted extra seasoning within the minors. Boone all the time scoffed at that. Volpe has had unquestioned help from the Yankees since Day 1 — due to his intangibles. Now, although, he is displaying us his tangibles. He might be a Yankee for 15 extra years.

One stat that proves it: He nearly has as many hits to the other discipline now (20) as he did all final season (24), that fast rise reveals the form of enchancment wanted to develop into a franchise shortstop.

Chosen by: Alden Gonzalez

Why he is the shortstop to construct round: He will get ignored due to the staff he performs for, however Tovar has a lot of the elements one seems to be for in a building-block shortstop — a younger child with nice make-up who supplies plus protection and elite bat-to-ball expertise. The one actual query surrounding Tovar as he skyrocketed up the Rockies’ farm system was whether or not his energy would ultimately emerge. And this 12 months, in what remains to be solely his age-22 season, we have seen a few of that.

Tovar’s slash line has jumped from .253/.287/.408 as a rookie in 2023 to .286/.314/.485 via the primary 71 video games of his second full season in 2024. In that two-year stretch, he has compiled 16 outs above common on protection — tied for sixth-most within the majors and greater than anyone else on this listing. There’s, after all, a purpose he fell to ninth. There are purple flags right here, most notably a propensity to swing manner too typically and many batted-ball luck (Tovar at the moment leads the majors with a .366 batting common on balls in play). His batted-ball metrics aren’t nice even this 12 months. However that is nonetheless a younger participant rounding into type. Time may be very a lot on Tovar’s facet.

One stat that proves it: When you suppose Tovar’s offensive resurgence is merely a byproduct of spending half his time within the skinny air of Coors Area, suppose once more. Tovar’s home-road splits are virtually similar this 12 months. His adjusted OPS, which neutralizes park elements, is 116, a 37-point bounce from final 12 months that places him 16% above league common. Tovar has completed a significantly better job this 12 months of elevating pitches.

Chosen by: Bradford Doolittle

Why he is the shortstop to construct round: Selecting final on this train leaves me with a best-of-the-rest situation. I’d commerce Lawlar and two different names above this slot on the listing to get a shot at Witt, however such is life. Lawlar has All-Star potential, little question, however I do not see him as being essentially extra of a constructing block than different prospects/children I may have taken, like Masyn Winn, Colson Montgomery, Marcelo Mayer and a handful of others. That is even earlier than we get into outstanding-right-now veterans like Carlos Correa and Francisco Lindor, who I am passing up as a result of that is a few five-year window, and they’re already at/close to 30. I do suppose my indifference to a selected participant on this slot underscores one factor: To face out at this deep, proficient place is tough, and that solely underscores how a lot expertise is bursting from the gamers listed.

One stat that proves it: Velocity and energy: Lawlar posted a .218 remoted energy within the minors final 12 months at age 20, but additionally stole 36 bases and scored 95 runs in simply 105 video games.