Mike Clay vs. Tyler Fulghum: NFL convention championship betting predictions

Uh oh. Simply when it appeared like Man and Machine have been going to lastly merge right into a unified power hellbent on destroying not one another however the sportsbooks, we’ve a tough week within the divisional spherical. Man was 0-2, caught by the hook on Christian McCaffrey speeding makes an attempt, whereas Machine not less than salvaged a 1-1 document, incomes its lone triumph by appropriately predicting that Gus Edwards would obtain lower than 13.5 speeding alternatives.

Man is resilient, nonetheless, and a machine does not have the capability to even perceive the emotion of disappointment, so we’ll forge forward into the championship spherical and battle one another as soon as once more within the participant prop market. Hopefully, you the bettor, profit essentially the most from this faceoff.

Because you prevailed with the Edwards play final week, Machine, the board is yours. Fireplace away.

Mike: I respect you mentioning my hit (Edwards) and never my miss (Patrick Mahomes over 36.5 move makes an attempt) from final week, however this is the factor: I’ll double down and run it again with Mahomes. Identical line. Related reasoning. Final week’s loss was a little bit of a nasty beat, because the Chiefs ran 47 offensive snaps, which was a season low by six performs (they averaged 60.1 snaps of their prior 18 video games).

Kansas Metropolis nonetheless known as a pass-first offense after working the league’s game-script-adjusted pass-heaviest scheme in the course of the common season. Together with final week’s season-low 23, Mahomes is averaging 36.7 move makes an attempt per recreation this season. That quantity jumps to 40.0 per recreation in Kansas Metropolis’s six losses (38-plus in 5 of these six), which is notable with the Chiefs 3.5-point street underdogs. Mahomes is averaging 40.1 makes an attempt per recreation in 4 profession video games towards Baltimore (37-plus in three of the 4, all three of which have been wins). The Ravens confronted 37.1 move makes an attempt per recreation in the course of the common season (second most), with 10 of 18 opponents reaching 37 makes an attempt. Mahomes OVER 36.5 Cross Makes an attempt (-110) is the play.

Tyler: My first play actually demonstrates the distinction between Man and Machine. You see, a machine has no eyes, so it can’t see how poorly Mecole Hardman Jr. has performed and the way usually he is actively hurting his offense when given alternatives. The fumble towards the Payments SHOULD be the final straw with Andy Reid. Ask 100 Kansas Metropolis Chiefs followers if they’d be OK with Mecole Hardman by no means touching the soccer once more this season and 100 of them would say “Completely!”

Actually, I wager if we gave Patrick Mahomes reality serum he could be singing the identical tune. I do know the Chiefs do not have many choices, however at this level within the season, towards this caliber of opponent, Kansas Metropolis cannot danger the potential catastrophe of placing the ball in Hardman’s fingers. I am projecting he sees just a few snaps on this recreation, and when he is on the sector he is used as a decoy or is working filter routes along with his vertical pace so Mahomes can goal another person. I do know that is what Chiefs followers need. Mecole Hardman Jr. UNDER 11.5 rush + receiving yards (-115).

Mike: I would not underestimate the attention of the machine, as my Hardman projection for this weekend is sort of similar to that line. After all, if Kadarius Toney is sidelined once more this week, I would lean nearer to the over. In spite of everything, the Chiefs have made it clear that they’re dedicated to shaky large receiver play (apart of you, Rashee Rice). Anyway, I’ll go easy for my second play with a really straight-up defensive prop that was a winner for us just a few instances in the course of the common season: Roquan Smith OVER 2.5 assists (-135). Smith has performed 97% of Baltimore’s defensive snaps throughout 17 energetic video games this season. Baltimore’s standout, every-down, off-ball linebacker averaged 4.5 assists throughout these video games, having reached three in 15 of 17. That is an 88% hit price and makes the vig we’re getting on this beautiful stunning. Anticipate Smith to rack up loads of helpers towards Kansas Metropolis. That is it from me. Carry us dwelling, Tyler!

Tyler: Check out the previous 5 video games the Detroit Lions have performed and you will discover one column within the field rating is especially sturdy: opposing QB passing yards. Beginning in Week 16 of the common season, listed here are the numbers put up by QBs dealing with this Lions protection:

Week 16 – Nick Mullens: 22/36, 411 yards, 2 TD, 4 INT
Week 17 – Dak Prescott: 26/38, 345 yards, 2 TD, INT
Week 18 – Nick Mullens: 30/44, 396 yards, 2 TD, 2 INT
Wild-card spherical – Matthew Stafford: 25/36, 367 yards, 2 TD
Divisional spherical – Baker Mayfield: 26/41, 349 yards, 3 TD, 2 INT

Provided that 345 yards is the LOWEST quantity allowed by Aaron Glenn’s protection over the previous month, Man will fortunately wager on Brock Purdy OVER 276.5 passing yards. Purdy was removed from his greatest towards the Inexperienced Bay Packers within the divisional spherical, however the moist climate was a professional issue. It clearly affected his accuracy on various throws.

Fortuitously for the 49ers, the climate forecast for Sunday is pristine. Will probably be heat with no precipitation, offering optimum situations for Kyle Shanahan’s offense. Deebo Samuel’s potential absence is a priority, however even when he is not obtainable the Niners can nonetheless shred this move protection. His availability would solely be the cherry on high of the boldness on this play.