Males’s Ultimate 4 2024: Storylines, picks, predictions

Members of some of the unlikely quartets in current school basketball historical past will battle to win a nationwide championship within the days forward.

Certain, many of the sports activities world anticipated UConn to return to this stage a 12 months after a nationwide title run, although among the stars from that group are gone. However Donovan Clingan, Stephon Citadel and Tristen Newton are additionally up in opposition to historical past: There hasn’t been a back-to-back champion in 17 years, and the previous 5 nationwide champions did not even get previous the primary weekend.

NC State wasn’t even within the projected area when the convention tournaments started. DJ Burns Jr. & Co. needed to win the ACC match and mimic the 1983 nationwide title-winning Wolfpack to get to this stage — a run that adopted a 2-7 stretch on the finish of the common season. Purdue needed to overcome the frustration of final 12 months’s loss to Fairleigh Dickinson, the best upset in NCAA match historical past, to get Matt Painter to his first Ultimate 4 look. And Alabama — a basketball faculty now? — developed the perfect offense in America to earn this system’s first journey to the Ultimate 4.

Each remaining group has a compelling story. However who will go away Glendale, Arizona, with the crown?

As we start the ultimate weekend of the 2023-24 season, ESPN’s Jeff Borzello, John Gasaway, Joe Lunardi and Myron Medcalf focus on the match and the groups left standing — and make their predictions for an additional night of blockbuster nationwide semifinal video games.

SCHEDULE:

No. 11 seed NC State Wolfpack vs. No. 1 seed Purdue Boilermakers: Saturday, April 6, 6:09 p.m. ET

No. 4 seed Alabama Crimson Tide vs. No. 1 seed UConn Huskies: Saturday, April 6, 8:49 p.m. ET

The 2024 males’s match was each chalky and somewhat sudden. The place does this NCAA match rank in comparison with earlier editions?

Joe Lunardi: It isn’t honest to UConn, however this match will not doubtless be remembered fondly if the Huskies proceed steamrolling the sphere. However, if UConn and Purdue give us an epic championship recreation, that would be the lasting reminiscence of a fantastic month. Both that or NC State giving the total Jimmy V expertise on Monday night time. One thing extraordinary must occur within the Ultimate 4 to carry this 12 months’s tourney past the extent of “superb.”

Jeff Borzello: The proper NCAA match for me is one which has a number of first-round upsets, one or two double-digit seeds within the Candy 16 and powerhouse matchups within the later rounds. This 12 months’s version has come fairly near ticking all of the packing containers. UConn and Purdue are nonetheless standing, all 4 1s and 2s reached the second weekend, NC State has supplied Cinderella magic and we had the likes of Oakland and Yale win within the first spherical. I am a fan.

Myron Medcalf: I’ve cherished this one as a result of I feel it has supplied all the pieces we take pleasure in concerning the NCAA match. Gamers from nondescript faculties and stars from Energy 5 powerhouses alike have all watched their profiles develop over the previous two weeks. Zach Edey is an even bigger star after main Purdue to the Ultimate 4. Jack Gohlke was the most well-liked participant within the first spherical after Oakland’s upset over Kentucky. DJ Burns Jr. is a family identify. So is Donovan Clingan. The NCAA match is at its finest when it could possibly produce a various set of heroes. This version has completed that.

John Gasaway: Signal me up for 5 or 10 extra of those. We had the wacky first-weekend surprises, however we additionally obtained all 4 No. 1 seeds via to the Candy 16 for the primary time since 2019. Now right here we’re on the Ultimate 4 with two groups that had been anticipated to be right here (although some had been cautious about Purdue after final 12 months) and two “surprises.” Effectively, Alabama beat the highest two seeds in its area to get right here, and NC State brushed apart a Duke group that toppled 1-seed Houston. Nobody’s moaning about any group’s “straightforward” path. I am on Workforce 2024.

What excites you about this 12 months’s Ultimate 4 individuals?

Borzello: It is the large man Ultimate 4! A possible nationwide championship showdown between Zach Edey and Donovan Clingan is mouthwatering to contemplate, whereas DJ Burns Jr. has arguably been the breakout star up to now. All three are dominant in several methods, too. Edey does it offensively, Clingan does it defensively, Burns does it in his personal unorthodox means. And naturally, then there’s Alabama and its fast-paced, 3-point-happy type to counter the low-post dominance throughout the remainder of the bracket.

Medcalf: I feel UConn’s pursuit of historical past is the theme this weekend. Most nationwide champions have not earned alternatives like this one. Can anybody cease them? Keep in mind, they’re additionally not the primary Ultimate 4 squad to reach with an aura of invincibility. The 1998-99 Duke group had received 32 video games in a row coming into the nationwide title recreation in opposition to UConn. That group misplaced. In 2015, Kentucky was 38-0 coming into a Ultimate 4 matchup in opposition to Wisconsin. That group misplaced, too. The Huskies appear unbeatable, however we have watched groups of their state of affairs miss the mark earlier than.

Lunardi: Nobody is thrashing UConn. What separates the Huskies from the group of unsuccessful “inevitable” champions is their single-mindedness. Dan Hurley could also be painful to observe at instances, however his group is an ideal manifestation of a relentless will to win. I discover him to be essentially the most fascinating character within the match, the automotive accident we won’t ignore. And he’ll discover each needed enemy — from Edey to the NCAA journey workplace — to encourage himself and his group to win one other title.

Gasaway: UConn has given us the reward of “it doesn’t matter what” historical past. If the Huskies repeat? Historical past. On the different excessive, shedding to Alabama can be epic on the extent of prohibitive favourite UNLV shedding to Duke within the 1991 nationwide semifinals. A loss to, say, Purdue within the title recreation? Historical past! On the identical degree because the Blue Devils shedding to (oh, the irony!) fellow prime seed Huskies within the 1999 title recreation. Multiply the earlier sentence instances 10 in case of a Monday night time defeat by the hands of NC State. That is huge.

Lunardi: This ought to be a double-digit win for the Boilermakers. Even should you had been to imagine Edey and Burns are a wash (which they don’t seem to be), Purdue is healthier at each different spot. That is additionally NC State’s longest layoff for fairly a while, main us to marvel if the magic mud could be gone. The Wolfpack misplaced 4 straight and 7 of 9 on the finish of the common season for a purpose. I will be shocked if Purdue is not taking part in Monday night time.

Rating prediction: Purdue 78, NC State 65

Gasaway: No participant at this Ultimate 4 claims a extra spectacular record of defensive victims than Burns. Throughout NC State’s miraculous run throughout each the ACC and NCAA tournaments, the senior has scored on a who’s who of defenders from Duke (twice), Virginia, North Carolina, Texas Tech and Marquette. He’ll get his factors, however opponents doing so hasn’t actually been a fear for Edey and Purdue. The Boilermakers are nearly as good because it will get with regards to second possibilities. NC State’s defensive rebounding has held up surprisingly properly the previous 4 video games, however Edey is a unique problem.

Rating prediction: Purdue 77, NC State 70

Medcalf: I do not know if any group within the nation has a solution for Edey. The larger query: What number of fouls does NC State have to offer? As a result of the Wolfpack will foul Edey as they attempt to guard him. Burns may create issues for Edey together with his passing and his means to play in area — though Tennessee dedicated 55 fouls in opposition to Purdue over two video games this season. Early foul bother is a higher focus for NC State than neutralizing the perfect participant in America.

Rating prediction: Purdue 80, NC State 71

Borzello: Burns might be a novel matchup for Edey, given his means to move out of double-teams and knock down face-up jumpers from the midrange or baseline areas. However I am unsure defending the 7-foot-4 Edey with Burns and Mohamed Diarra, two 6-9 gamers who’ve handled foul bother all match, is essentially an answer. I am not going to totally rely out the Wolfpack, given the experience they have been on the previous three weeks, however I feel this recreation in opposition to Purdue is the place it involves an finish for Kevin Keatts’ crew.

Rating prediction: Purdue 74, NC State 66

UConn’s protection has utterly shut down 4 consecutive match opponents. May Alabama overcome it on Saturday?

Borzello: There is a case to be made Alabama’s tempo and talent to assault or make pictures from all 5 positions pose a unique problem than UConn has seen up to now on this match. And the Crimson Tide have the flexibility to make 15-plus 3s in a recreation — a scary proposition. However Stephon Citadel has already shut down Boo Buie and Terrence Shannon Jr., and he may do the identical with Mark Sears. In the meantime, Alabama’s fast-paced type may play proper into UConn’s fingers.

Rating prediction: UConn 89, Alabama 76

Lunardi: It does not matter if UConn shuts down Alabama (though I anticipate it can occur to some extent). What issues is whether or not Alabama can shut down UConn, and that is not taking place. Since shedding to Auburn 99-81 on Feb. 7, the Crimson Tide have allowed 90.4 factors per recreation over 14 contests. If they permit 90 factors in opposition to UConn, they will get crushed.

Rating prediction: UConn 92, Alabama 75

Gasaway: Alabama shoots as many 3s as a well-recognized Huge East opponent for UConn (Creighton) however at a quicker tempo and, for a lot of minutes, from a real five-out look. To not point out the factor that makes the Crimson Tide really completely different is that they actually do not care in the event that they miss their first 10. They’re going to hold firing away. The issue for Nate Oats is that the matchup between his protection and the Huskies’ offense seems, not less than on paper, to be decidedly one-sided in UConn’s favor.

Rating prediction: UConn 88, Alabama 75

Medcalf: Alabama has linked on 41.4% of its 3s within the NCAA match. If it could possibly play quick and hit pictures from the perimeter, theoretically, it could possibly compete. Factor is, taking part in quick strategy hasn’t labored for anybody in opposition to UConn. Of their three losses this season, the Huskies performed at a slower tempo: 60 possessions (Kansas), 62 possessions (Seton Corridor) and 59 possessions (Creighton). The 4 groups that pushed Connecticut to 70 or extra all misplaced. Growing the tempo is not a fantastic resolution in opposition to the Huskies.

Rating prediction: UConn 95, Alabama 80

Who would be the star of Saturday night time, and why?

Borzello: The straightforward reply is Zach Edey, since he is averaging 30.0 factors and 16.3 rebounds via 4 NCAA match video games. However I will go exterior the field and choose Alex Karaban. UConn vs. Alabama looks like a recreation that might be performed primarily in transition, and Karaban appears to all the time discover a strategy to successfully path the play or fade out to the wing for a 3 on the break. And he is deadly when he is capturing in rhythm. He began to get going within the second half in opposition to Illinois, and it looks like a real breakout recreation is coming.

Lunardi: The second-best participant on the Ultimate 4. In what figures to be a high-paced, high-scoring affair, UConn’s Tristen Newton would possibly go for a triple-double in opposition to Alabama. Newton hasn’t actually had a breakout recreation within the match, however I like his possibilities in opposition to the defenseless Tide. With triple-doubles already this 12 months in opposition to Manhattan and Villanova, why not yet another on the most important stage potential?

Medcalf: I will go together with Fletcher Loyer. NC State must throw all the pieces it has at Edey, and that may open the ground for Loyer, who has made 46% of his 3-point makes an attempt within the NCAA match. Whereas nothing appeared to fall from past the arc for the Boilermakers in opposition to Tennessee within the Elite Eight, Loyer ought to get an abundance of open appears on Saturday night time, I feel.

Gasaway: Let’s be daring: Michael O’Connell. His efficiency is probably not sufficient to topple mighty Purdue and its excellent Edey-centric offense, however good issues can occur for guards who draw Matt Painter’s second and even third choice for backcourt protection. The Boilermakers can have their fingers full with Burns and DJ Horne. O’Connell will profit accordingly.