Connecting dots: Why Kirk Cousins is probably going leaving Vikings

If historical past is a dependable information, Kirk Cousins is all the way down to his ultimate days because the Minnesota Vikings’ quarterback.

It is not troublesome to attach the dots of standard knowledge at this level, and the one life like issue on the contrary is the likelihood — nonetheless distant it is likely to be — that Cousins will make the kind of determination he has by no means made earlier than.

The primary dot is within the renegotiated contract Cousins signed final spring, one which voids March 13. The small print of the contract successfully imply that if the Vikings are going to re-sign him for 2024, they will must do it earlier than the free agent market opens subsequent Wednesday. In the event that they have been to attempt to signal him after that time, his 2024 wage cap quantity would come with a $28.5 million lifeless cash overlay.

Getting Cousins signed earlier than March 13 might need been a risk if there have been no apparent suitors across the league. However the second dot emerged throughout final week’s NFL scouting mix. In line with ESPN’s Dan Graziano, and lots of others, the Atlanta Falcons have made Cousins their prime goal if he reaches the open market. The Falcons, after all, cannot formally signal him till after the deal voids.

That brings us to the third dot to attach. At each step of his profession, Cousins has made the choice to maximise — or almost maximize — his contractual return. His single-minded pursuit has delivered $230 million in earnings since he turned a full-time beginning quarterback in 2015, a interval throughout which he has made three playoff appearances and compiled a 1-3 postseason report.

It doesn’t matter what the Vikings would possibly provide him previous to March 13, wouldn’t it be sufficient to persuade him to not discover the Falcons’ choice or hear out some other crew that is likely to be ?

Not even Vikings coach Kevin O’Connell thinks that would be the case. In a revealing interview final weekend on NFL Community, O’Connell made clear that Cousins can have suitors and that he’ll nearly definitely entertain them.

“The mix simply gave all people else a chance, whether or not they’re purported to be or not, to perhaps have some conversations,” O’Connell stated. “However I have been having the dialogue that you’ve with a participant like Kirk Cousins; the connection we have constructed up over a protracted time frame. I do know Kirk, the place he is at on this entire course of. He is earned the fitting to be a free agent. He is performed actually good soccer. I feel he is [17-8] since I arrived in Minnesota teaching him. I’ve had a blast teaching him, his match within the offense, the place we have taken our model of the offense to with guys like Jordan [Addison] and Justin [Jefferson] and T.J. [Hockenson].

“I do know Kirk goes to undergo a full course of. He is a course of man. Hopefully we proceed to be a robust half in that course of and we work out a approach to maintain him a Minnesota Viking. My expectation is that we aren’t going to be the one ones that need Kirk Cousins to be the quarterback of our crew in 2024.”

O’Connell’s response acknowledged a practical evaluation of how Cousins is more likely to strategy the subsequent few weeks, but it surely additionally revealed the promoting level he nearly definitely has already made to Cousins himself: The Vikings may very nicely characterize his greatest probability of success within the coming years, with a training workers he has related with and an array of dynamic weapons.

Would Cousins view it the identical manner? He reiterated in January that he hoped to complete his profession in Minnesota and even went as far as to say: “At this stage in my profession, the {dollars} are actually not what it is about.”

He did, nonetheless, indicate that he desires a proposal to match his need to complete out his profession; he’ll be 36 in August and hopes to play for a number of extra years. Whereas the {dollars} won’t be “what it is about,” he stated, “it’s about what the {dollars} characterize.”

The cleanest manner for the Vikings to characterize their dedication to Cousins is to totally assure a number of years of their provide. And that is the place the fourth dot is available in.

Like O’Connell, normal supervisor Kwesi Adofo-Mensah has stated he desires Cousins again for 2024. However Adofo-Mensah has spoken in additional nuanced phrases about how which may occur, as is likely to be anticipated from a normal supervisor who’s required to use a long-term imaginative and prescient.

“We now have our pursuits,” Adofo-Mensah stated. “He has his. We’ll get to the desk to see if we are able to work out a inventive resolution and sort of meet within the center. That is what each contract negotiation is. And that is what it’s going to be with him.”

It could be completely affordable for a normal supervisor to be hesitant about handing out a number of assured years to a quarterback who might be 36 subsequent season and is recovering from a torn proper Achilles, particularly at a time when the ground for established beginning quarterbacks is $40 million yearly. However it leaves open a transparent path for Cousins to hunt higher affords. If the Vikings attempt to signal him after he reaches the market, they must overlay his new contract on the $28.5 million lifeless cash determine, creating what would appear to be a prohibitive cap determine for 2024.

A robust argument might be made for parting methods with an ageing quarterback who’s working his manner again from the primary main damage of his profession. Bidding farewell to Cousins would free the Vikings from the six-year pressure of getting his deal on their books, however it will additionally expose their lack of a succession plan and lift the very actual risk that he might be changed by somebody who performs worse than he’ll in Atlanta or elsewhere within the coming seasons.

The timing of Cousins’ departure would coincide with a robust draft class of quarterbacks, however with the No. 11 total choose, the Vikings nearly definitely would want a commerce up — and sacrifice future draft picks — to pick out one from the highest tier of Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels and Drake Maye. That would go away them to compete for the subsequent tier that features Michigan’s J.J. McCarthy, Washington’s Michael Penix Jr. and Oregon’s Bo Nix. A free agent bridge starter equivalent to Sam Darnold may additionally enter the equation. Longer-term prospects may embody Justin Fields, Russell Wilson or Ryan Tannehill.

As soon as hypothetical, these choices now look like the likeliest path for the Vikings. Barring an out-of-character determination from Cousins, they are going to quickly don’t have any alternative however to maneuver to Plan B.