Champions League quarterfinal draw: Picks, predictions, extra

With eight robust sides within the pot for Friday’s Champions League quarterfinal draw, we knew we might get some unimaginable pairings in Europe’s elite competitors, however this draw actually did ship by way of speaking factors, drama and leisure worth. From Manchester Metropolis vs. Actual Madrid — a rematch of final season’s semifinal — to PSG vs. Barcelona, there are storylines galore.

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We additionally know the semifinal path for all eight sides, so let’s break down the storylines, key gamers and make some predictions.

ARSENAL vs. BAYERN MUNICH

Backstory/What you want to know

Look away, Arsenal followers. Bayern Munich have scored 5 objectives previous the Gunners in every of the previous three encounters — twice in 2017 and in 2015 — and simply so as to add to the sense of this being the worst doable draw by way of historical past for Arsenal, the tie will see former Tottenham ahead Harry Kane return to North London with Bayern to face his previous foe.

Now that is clearly a special Arsenal to the groups that had been humiliated by Bayern of their most up-to-date conferences. Mikel Arteta’s aspect are high of the Premier League and within the quarterfinals of the Champions League for the primary time in over a decade, whereas Bayern face lacking out on the Bundesliga title for the primary time since 2011 this season.

However Bayern are unquestionably a bogey crew for Arsenal.

In 12 earlier conferences, Bayern have gained seven and Arsenal simply three, with two attracts between the perimeters, however it’s when the golf equipment meet within the knockout levels that issues actually get bleak for Arsenal. The 2 sides have met on 4 events within the Champions League knockout rounds and Bayern have emerged victorious every time, with the Germán giants successful 10-2 on mixture within the 2016-17 spherical of 16 tie.

This is not nearly revenge for Arsenal: Beating Bayern can be about proving they belong towards the very greatest European groups.

Key gamers and/or tactical battle

Arsenal’s job on this recreation is easy: Cease Harry Kane. The England captain has scored 36 objectives in 34 video games in all competitions for Bayern since becoming a member of from Spurs final summer season, and Arteta will want his finest defender, William Saliba, to nullify Kane over the 2 video games.

Saliba’s absence within the last weeks of final season coincided with Arsenal’s decline and eventual end as runners-up to Manchester Metropolis within the Premier League, however he’s again to his finest this season and his head-to-head with Kane may resolve the end result of this tie.

How Arsenal can win

Beating Porto within the spherical of 16, albeit by way of a penalty shootout, was a key second for Arsenal’s younger crew by way of their perception that they’ll succeed within the Champions League, however they should take it to a different stage towards Bayern. Arsenal have the tempo and power, plus the creativity of Martin Ødegaard in midfield, to tear Bayern aside. It is all about Arteta guaranteeing that his gamers deal with the sport in isolation relatively than ponder the historical past and custom of Bayern.

Traditionally this tie has not been a lot of a contest, however within the right here and now, Arsenal are greater than a match for Bayern. They only need to imagine it.

How Bayern Munich can win

Bayern’s expertise is the important thing to their prospects of success, each by way of their gamers and coach Thomas Tuchel. This Bayern squad continues to be stacked with gamers from their 2020 Champions League win, whereas Tuchel is aware of all about successful this competitors having accomplished so with Chelsea in 2021.

If the likes of Thomas Müller, Manuel Neuer, Joshua Kimmich, Leon Goretzka and Kingsley Coman carry out, with Kane offering the objectives, Bayern can overcome a assured younger Arsenal aspect by means of sheer expertise.

Prediction: Bayern Munich 3-2 Arsenal

This recreation is such a tricky one to name, however Bayern have the nous and the benefit of the second-leg at dwelling, so they are going to shade it.

ATLÉTICO MADRID vs. BORUSSIA DORTMUND

Backstory/What you want to know

For 2 groups which have grow to be such established Champions League opponents, it is a uncommon head-to-head fixture, with Dortmund and Atlético solely assembly 4 occasions beforehand within the competitors and by no means within the knockout rounds. However with such a heavyweight look to the quarterfinals, this matchup might be the one which each golf equipment would have chosen so as to give themselves the absolute best likelihood of reaching the semifinals and probably even the ultimate.

When Dortmund gained the Champions League for the one time in 1996-97, they face Atléti twice within the group stage, successful 1-0 in Spain earlier than dropping 2-1 within the return fixture in Germany. When the perimeters met once more within the 2018-19 group stage, Dortmund gained 4-0 at dwelling earlier than dropping 2-0 in Madrid.

However whereas the rapid precedence is to get by means of this tie, the prize of successful is larger than merely reaching the semifinals. With the favourites (Arsenal, Bayern, Actual Madrid and Manchester Metropolis) within the different half of the draw, coaches Diego Simeone and Edin Terzic will be capable to plot a path to the ultimate at Wembley — going through both Barcelona or PSG — within the perception that they are going to every have a robust likelihood of success within the semis … if they get there.

Key gamers and/or tactical battle

This tie is uncommon in that it concerned two groups who depend on the collective relatively than particular person brilliance to beat opponents, however Dortmund’s greatest activity will probably be to win the midfield battle towards Atlético. That’s the place the ability lies in Diego Simeone’s crew, with the tenacity and trade of Koke, Marcos Llorente and Rodrigo De Paul behind the attacking high quality of Antoine Griezmann, Álvaro Morata, Ángel Correa and Memphis Depay.

Can Dortmund match up with Emre Can, Marcel Sabitzer, Marco Reus and Julian Brandt? They’ve the flexibility, however have they got the work-rate to beat Simeone’s crew?

How Atlético Madrid can win

Atlético eradicated an Inter Milan aspect that’s flying on the high of Serie A this week by displaying the traditional qualities that Diego Simeone has imposed on his groups — work-rate, never-say-die angle and underappreciated high quality. If they’ve the identical method towards Dortmund, Atlético’s superior high quality in each space of the pitch ought to see them by means of.

In addition they have a formidable dwelling document to defend. Atlético have not misplaced a Champions League knockout tie at dwelling since a 3-2 defeat to Ajax within the 1996-97 quarterfinals. They’ve 10 wins and seven attracts since that loss.

How Borussia Dortmund can win

Supervisor Edin Terzic wants forwards Donyell Malen and Jadon Sancho to be at their best possible over the 2 ties. Sancho limped out of the spherical of 16 second-leg win towards PSV Eindhoven after scoring the opening aim, so getting the on-loan Manchester United winger match for the quarterfinal will probably be essential.

Dortmund have loads of expertise in Mats Hummels, Niklas Süle, Reus and Can, which is a optimistic for the Bundesliga aspect, however whether or not they can preserve tempo with Atlético over two legs stays to be seen.

Prediction: Atlético Madrid 4-2 Borussia Dortmund

Atlético have every part of their favour. They’ve a deeper squad, higher gamers and a supreme coach in Diego Simeone.

REAL MADRID vs. MANCHESTER CITY

Backstory/What you want to know

Reigning champions Manchester Metropolis towards Actual Madrid, essentially the most profitable membership in Champions League historical past, in a tie that everyone wished to see other than the 2 groups themselves.

Pep Guardiola’s Metropolis are the favourites to win the competitors for a second straight yr, however Actual are arguably their strongest challengers, that means this tie has loads of hazard for either side. Actual’s need for revenge after final season 5-1 mixture semifinal defeat is one other ingredient to this conflict. Metropolis and Actual have met in every of the final two seasons and the winners of the tie have gone on to win the competitors, underlining the pedigree of the 2 groups and the coaches, with Guardiola (three) and Carlo Ancelotti (4) having seven Champions League titles between them.

This tie has every part. It pits one of the best two coaches towards one another, provides us Jude Bellingham versus Erling Haaland and different nice names together with Kevin De Bruyne, Toni Kroos, Rodri and Vinicius Jr. It might have made a dream last, however finally, among the best sides within the competitors will probably be exiting on the quarterfinal stage.

Key gamers and/or tactical battle

Jude Bellingham has arguably made himself one of the best midfielder on this planet at Actual this season, however by the identical token, no defensive midfielder can evaluate to Rodri proper now — the winner of this tie may come right down to who comes out on high in that battle. It isn’t a direct head-to-head, however it’s about which participant is ready to set the tempo: Actual’s Bellingham or Metropolis’s Rodri.

Metropolis had been within the working to signal Bellingham from Borussia Dortmund final summer season earlier than the England participant selected as a substitute to maneuver to Actual, they usually might be set to find precisely what they missed out on.

How Actual Madrid can win

Actual had been blown away by Metropolis in a 4-1 second-leg defeat in final season’s semifinal as a result of that they had now reply to Pep Guardiola’s powerhouse midfield. If Actual are to avenge that loss this time round, they should win the midfield battle, however they get pleasure from having Bellingham of their ranks now, with Eduardo Camavinga and Aurélien Tchouaméni a yr older and wiser, plus the expertise of Kroos.

There may be a lot attacking high quality in either side, however Actual must beat Metropolis in midfield earlier than counting on their forwards to seal the win.

How Manchester Metropolis can win

Regardless of his unimaginable season final yr, Erling Haaland did not rating in his two video games towards Actual within the semis. Having destroyed Actual in midfield a yr in the past, Pep Guardiola will need his crew to have a special gameplan to beat the Spanish giants, so they are going to want Haaland to have his taking pictures boots on this time.

If Haaland can take 2-3 of the possibilities that his teammates create, it might be an excessive amount of for Actual. The stress will probably be on him to step it up from final season’s efficiency.

Prediction: Manchester Metropolis 4-2 Actual Madrid

Manchester Metropolis aren’t fairly as formidable as final season, however they’ve a goalscorer in Haaland and Actual have not actually changed Karim Benzema. In a tie of high-quality margins, that is what’s going to depend.

PARIS SAINT-GERMAIN vs. BARCELONA

Backstory/What you want to know

A tie dripping with current historical past and humiliation skilled by each groups. When it goes fallacious in PSG vs. Barcelona clashes, it actually goes fallacious, so can we anticipate one other meltdown on this quarterfinal tie?

Again in 2016-17, PSG travelled to Barcelona with a 4-0 first-leg benefit of their spherical of 16 tie and seemingly cruising into the quarterfinals, however a Lionel Messi-inspired Barça produced essentially the most beautiful fightback in Champions League historical past to win 6-1 in Camp Nou. 4 years later, PSG gained revenge by successful 4-1 in Camp Nou on their approach to a 5-2 spherical of 16 triumph, so one of the best recommendation for this tie is to anticipate the unthinkable.

It is a assembly between two groups within the midst of a transitional section. PSG are rebuilding following the departures of Messi and Neymar final yr and the upcoming exit of Kylian Mbappé this summer season, whereas Barcelona are struggling to stay aggressive as they mix monetary issues with the costly Camp Nou improve. In addition they face uncertainty over their on-field future, with coach Xavi stepping down on the finish of the season.

Regardless of the problems at each golf equipment, that is nonetheless a recreation that pits Mbappe towards Robert Lewandowski and offers each a shot at a run to the ultimate at Wembley.

Key gamers and/or tactical battle

This all revolves round whether or not Barcelona can get their finest gamers off the remedy desk and onto the pitch. Midfielders Frenkie de Jong and Pedri are each sidelined, with Pedri hopeful of returning by the top of March and De Jong anticipated to be match by mid-April — simply because the quarterfinals are scheduled to start.

With Ferran Torres additionally pencilled in for a late-March/early-April comeback, the Barcelona medical workers may but resolve the end result of this tie.

How Paris Saint-Germain can win

Luis Enrique’s crew had been anticipated to seek out it robust towards Actual Sociedad within the spherical of 16, however they cruised to a 4-1 mixture victory with Kylian Mbappe scoring thrice for PSG over the 2 video games.

With Mbappé set to depart PSG on the finish of the season, his performances towards La Actual hinted on the France ahead being on a private mission to ship the one trophy he has but to win for the membership and Enrique merely must preserve his star participant match and targeted on that aim.

If Mbappé is on hearth once more on this tie, PSG undergo.

How Barcelona can win

This seems a tricky activity for Barcelona and the place their Champions League journey will finish because of the query marks over the health of key gamers and the prospect of going through an on-form Mbappé. If the likes of Ilkay Gündogan and Lewandowski can summon all their expertise for probably their final shot at successful one other Champions League, Barça may take PSG all the best way on this tie.

The truth is that Barça want all the assistance they’ll get as a result of sadly for them, this seems essentially the most predictable tie of the spherical.

Prediction: PSG 4-1 Barcelona

On paper, it is a conflict between two heavyweight golf equipment, however Barça usually are not the Barça of previous and PSG ought to win comfortably.

PATH TO THE FINAL

• Semifinal 1: Atlético/Dortmund vs. PSG/Barcelona

• Semifinal 2: Arsenal/Bayern vs. Actual Madrid/Man Metropolis

• Remaining: Semifinal 1 winner (dwelling crew) vs. Semifinal 2 winner (away crew)

OK, we additionally know the semifinal and last path for all eight groups. Who will win all of it on June 1?

The trail to the ultimate has given us a formidable quartet in a single half and 4 outsiders within the different, however finally, the winner is more likely to come from the Actual Madrid-Man Metropolis tie.

So again Metropolis to defend their crown at Wembley in June, with Atlético Madrid as soon as once more having to undergo the ache of being a dropping finalist.