Can the Golden Knights repeat as Stanley Cup champions?

Sixteen wins. That is all a staff must hoist the Stanley Cup.

For some golf equipment, reaching the feat takes a long time. For the Vegas Golden Knights, it took six years.

Vegas secured the primary Cup victory in franchise historical past final spring by downing the Winnipeg Jets, Edmonton Oilers and Dallas Stars en path to overwhelming the Florida Panthers in a five-game Closing that Vegas managed from the beginning.

At occasions, the Golden Knights made incomes these 16 wins look straightforward. However will Vegas’ playoff run seem as easy because it makes an attempt to repeat as Cup champion?

Solely eight groups in NHL historical past have received the Cup in consecutive years. Simply two (the Pittsburgh Penguins and Tampa Bay Lightning) have completed that on this millennium.

This has been a unique season for the Golden Knights. Whereas final yr Vegas entered the playoffs after a powerhouse common season (because the Western Convention’s prime seed), this time across the Golden Knights battled their solution to a late berth and barely approached the 100-point mark. Vegas has toggled between dominant and docile. Its id hasn’t at all times been clear — besides relating to pushing the envelope.

Vegas did simply that, chasing after prized skaters on the commerce deadline and touchdown Noah Hanifin and Tomas Hertl for precisely this time of yr. What kind of affect will they’ve on the Golden Knights’ possibilities to go back-to-back? What do the numbers say about Vegas now in contrast with final season? And what do gamers and executives across the league should say about this yr’s squad — and the problem earlier than them of successful a second Cup?

What the analytics say about Vegas’ possibilities

The numbers won’t lie, precisely. However they do not at all times inform the entire fact, both.

That is the case right here when evaluating this season’s Golden Knights to the staff that hoisted the Stanley Cup final June. On paper, Vegas seems almost an identical to that championship squad.

Let’s break it down:

The 2022-23 Golden Knights averaged 3.26 objectives per sport (14th), 2.74 objectives in opposition to per sport (twelfth), had the 18th-ranked energy play (20%), Nineteenth-best penalty kill (77%), have been ninth in objective differential (+42), seventh in scoring possibilities per sport (15.1) and eighth in anticipated objectives differential (53.8%), with a collective save proportion of .911 (seventh). Vegas completed the season with 111 factors and was first within the Pacific Division.

Most of Vegas’ figures in 2023-24 stack up equally — with a few outliers. This season’s staff averaged 3.24 objectives per sport (thirteenth), 2.98 objectives in opposition to per sport (twenty second), had the Nineteenth-ranked energy play (20%) and the Fifteenth-best penalty kill (80%). These numbers typically development shut year-over-year.

Notable variations this season have been in objective differential (+21, twelfth total), anticipated objectives (52.1%, thirteenth) and scoring possibilities per sport (15.6, 14th). Vegas’ goaltending struggled extra this season than final as effectively — the Golden Knights had a collective save proportion of .902 (tenth total), have been twentieth in objectives saved above expectations and eleventh in objectives in opposition to.

That knowledge suggests Vegas ought to have fared higher this season than being the eighth seed within the Western Convention. However this season has revealed two distinct variations of the Golden Knights: one beginning the season, and one ending it.

Vegas opened 2023-24 with an 11-0-1 document and by mid-December had misplaced consecutive video games in regulation simply as soon as. The Golden Knights did not actually dip till going 1-5-0 from round Christmas into their Winter Traditional dud in opposition to Seattle on Jan. 1. It was a poor omen for Vegas, although. The Golden Knights by no means recaptured the dominance they displayed to start out the season.

Issues acquired worse after the All-Star break.

Since mid-February, Vegas is averaging 3.44 objectives in opposition to per sport (twenty third), permitting 30.5 photographs per sport (Nineteenth) and their objective differential has tanked (-2 total). These defensive points have spotlighted the goaltending issues, significantly from Adin Hill, who has gone 5-8-0, with an .877 save proportion and three.73 goals-against common.

Vegas is susceptible to buying and selling alternatives off the push, rating Nineteenth in rush scoring possibilities per sport, whereas giving up the tenth most within the league. The Golden Knights have been additionally 18th in cycle scoring possibilities, which means Vegas might be uncovered within the playoffs by a staff that scores constantly off the push or has a construction taking away the Golden Knights’ rush assault.

If it weren’t for Vegas’ sturdy begin, the general numbers can be trending farther from the place the Golden Knights perched a yr in the past in most classes. Accidents have as soon as once more performed a task in Vegas’ season, however its commerce deadline additions — particularly Hanifin on the blue line and Anthony Mantha up entrance — have helped soothe a few of what’s ailed it at 5-on-5 and particular groups.

The Golden Knights went 11-5-1 because the March 8 deadline handed, and that is been principally with out their different extremely prized acquisition, Hertl, who simply debuted in April following February knee surgical procedure.

Logan Thompson has additionally rebounded in that post-deadline stretch, going 7-2-0 with a .924 save proportion and a pair of.26 goals-against common. That bodes effectively for him as Vegas’ potential starter going into the primary spherical over Hill, who had a memorable playoff run final yr because the Golden Knights’ sudden No. 1 in web.

The true query now could be: Which Vegas will we see within the postseason? The elite-looking squad that would dominate in all three phases? Or the extra susceptible group that is prone to lengthy stretches of mediocre efficiency?

Let the actual video games start.

play

2024 NHL playoffs: The chase for the Stanley Cup is on

Emily Kaplan units up the chase for the Stanley Cup because the NHL’s second season will get underway.

What the league says about Vegas — and the problem of going back-to-back

Maybe the place to start out relating to the Golden Knights’ bid for a consecutive title is the problem that comes with successful back-to-back championships. The latest staff to do it was the Lightning in 2020 and 2021.

“It was very difficult for I might say each,” stated Seattle Kraken ahead Yanni Gourde, who was a part of these Lightning groups. “The primary was within the bubble, and the bubble was very difficult mentally. It was loads that first yr. The second yr, you are again to common hockey within the playoffs with the group and touring and all that stuff. They every felt very completely different in their very own approach.”

Kraken defenseman Brian Dumoulin, who received back-to-back Cups with the Pens in 2016 and 2017, voiced an analogous sentiment by way of a staff’s mentality. He stated successful a Stanley Cup comes with a pure sense of accomplishment, which might work one among two methods for a staff.

It will probably function the motivation to win a second in a row. Or it might probably work in opposition to a staff as a result of some gamers may be happy with their first championship and fail to push as laborious to go for one more.

One other level Dumoulin raised was how groups which have received a Stanley Cup sometimes obtain extra consideration and include fewer questions.

Earlier than a staff wins a Stanley Cup, it faces questions on whether it is adequate to win all of it. As soon as the staff wins, although, it’s not a secret. It is now about how does the staff proceed to win whereas understanding everyone seems to be making an attempt to determine methods to not solely beat it, however have the solutions over a seven-game collection if it will get to that time.

“I believe it is like that within the common season too, placing your self ready to win, [trying to get] home-ice benefit, particularly with a staff like Vegas,” Dumoulin stated. “They’re at all times good at residence similar to we have been in Pittsburgh. … It will get form of tougher and tougher to even play within the common season that following yr too, as a result of you have got a goal in your again. That is undoubtedly an element.”

Virtually each dialog across the Golden Knights’ title protection begins with how they returned 20 gamers from final yr’s championship staff. It is a group that ranges from reigning Conn Smythe winner Jonathan Marchessault to All-Stars resembling Jack Eichel and Alex Pietrangelo to key depth gamers resembling defensive pairing Nicolas Hague and Zach Whitecloud.

Final yr noticed the Golden Knights win the Pacific Division and the Western Convention to realize home-ice benefit all through the playoffs. This season, nevertheless, they enter the playoffs as a No. 8 seed.

That is to not say decrease seeds can’t pull off upsets. It occurred twice within the opening spherical of final yr’s playoffs when the wild-card Florida Panthers upset the top-seeded Boston Bruins, and the then-defending Stanley Cup champion Colorado Avalanche have been ousted by the Seattle Kraken.

“I believe the most important factor is what number of good groups there are,” Dumoulin stated. “Clearly, with the wage cap not going up, groups are spending to the cap. It is nearly each staff that has a very good high quality staff and the distinction in that first-round sport, it is no straightforward matchup. It may be a battle irrespective of who they play.”

Dumoulin’s level concerning the variety of groups that would problem for the Stanley Cup as a result of they’re spending to the cap has benefit. Cap Pleasant’s knowledge exhibits the Nashville Predators are the one Western Convention staff in a playoff spot with greater than $1 million in projected cap area. The following-closest staff is the Winnipeg Jets, with lower than $500,000 in cap area.

The Golden Knights are amongst these groups that had no cap area getting into the postseason.

Even with their cap limitations, the Golden Knights have been extraordinarily energetic getting into the commerce deadline. Shifting captain Mark Stone to long-term injured reserve was one of many strikes that allowed them to liberate the required area to get Hanifin, Hertl and Mantha.

A part of what has allowed Vegas to have success over the previous few years is its potential to assimilate new gamers. The Golden Knights have executed it with Eichel, Pietrangelo, Stone and Ivan Barbashev, amongst others, over the previous few years.

However how troublesome is it to welcome new faces to a staff that is already good? Particularly when that staff is making an attempt to win a second straight Stanley Cup?

Gourde stated it begins with how ingrained a staff’s tradition is throughout the dressing room. He stated that usually served as a blueprint to assist gamers mesh with their new teammates.

“Once we had a brand new man who walked in, he knew what was anticipated,” Gourde stated. “He knew what was wanted out of each one among us. It was form of the unwritten rule that this was the usual, that this was the tradition and that is what it was. Every man that jumped into our lineup in these years was keen to try this and have been additionally keen to go above and past to win video games.”

Dumoulin stated he was to see what the Golden Knights would seem like as soon as they’ve their full complement of gamers. He recalled the final time the Kraken performed the Golden Knights in late March. The Golden Knights received 3-1 — and that was with out Hertl, Pietrangelo and Stone.

Vegas received final season by counting on its depth. It is what allowed the Golden Knights to navigate their accidents this season. And Gourde is amongst those that imagine that depth may as soon as once more show very important within the postseason.

“Their fourth line — the way in which they performed,” Gourde stated of the Knights’ depth benefit. “The best way they switched momentum in video games. I believed they pushed groups out, and in case your fourth line does that, it offers a whole lot of success to the opposite traces that are available. Abruptly, they’re going through a 3rd line that is been of their zone for a minute as a result of they simply grinded a shift by means of that fourth line who was simply throughout. That is the sport throughout the sport. It is these particulars of setting the subsequent line up.”

Gourde would know. And if the Knights can hold leveraging that depth benefit, they might be taking part in hockey effectively into June once more this yr.