Caitlin Clark WNBA predictions: Strengths, hurdles to count on

Caitlin Clark enters her closing Huge Ten event hoping to steer Iowa to its third consecutive title. In 2022, the Hawkeyes received the event at Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis. Final 12 months, Iowa received the championship at Goal Middle in Minneapolis, web site of this season’s event.

The senior guard’s focus is totally on Iowa. However in slightly greater than 5 weeks, Gainbridge will grow to be Clark’s dwelling area if she is picked No. 1 as anticipated by the Indiana Fever within the WNBA draft. The Fever will go to Goal Middle — the place Clark, who was born in West Des Moines, Iowa, attended WNBA video games as a baby — for the primary of three regular-season contests on July 14.

So whereas Clark retains her thoughts on the enterprise at hand in taking advantage of her closing school postseason, we’re wanting forward to what’s coming quickly in her skilled profession. Like all WNBA rookies, Clark will expertise a whirlwind of transition over the following few months.

How will she take care of the transfer to the WNBA? What elements of the skilled recreation may take essentially the most time for her to regulate to? And with the Paris Olympics 4 months away, how does that think about for Clark? ESPN talked to WNBA consultants — coaches, common managers and analysts — for his or her perception.

How will Clark’s offensive abilities translate to the WNBA?

No NCAA Division I participant has scored extra factors than Clark, and he or she’s the one participant since assists have been formally recorded within the school recreation to have at the very least 3,000 factors and 1,000 assists. Her legacy is cemented as one of many best offensive gamers in school basketball historical past.

Clark averages 32.3 factors this season and 28.3 for her profession. For perspective, Diana Taurasi’s 25.3 factors per recreation in 2006 (her third 12 months within the league) is the best common in WNBA historical past. Cynthia Cooper, who performed the primary 4 seasons within the WNBA after a prolonged abroad profession, has the best WNBA profession scoring common at 20.98. Breanna Stewart has the best scoring common amongst lively gamers at 20.82.

That mentioned, consultants instructed us that whereas her averages will not be as excessive as her school stats, Clark will stay an efficient scorer within the WNBA and her assists numbers must be much like those at Iowa. Clark may even have stronger expertise round her, with younger submit gamers akin to Aliyah Boston and NaLyssa Smith, who’ve nice fingers and end robust on the rim. Fever guards Kelsey Mitchell and Erica Wheeler ought to assist relieve Clark on among the stress of scoring and ballhandling.

“Everybody talks about issues getting tougher for her within the WNBA, but it surely’s additionally true that some elements of the professional recreation will make it simpler for her,” a WNBA common supervisor mentioned. “She shall be enjoying alongside the perfect gamers she’s ever performed with. You are not going to have the ability to simply key in on her.”

Nonetheless, consultants level out that WNBA defenses shall be higher geared up to protect her full courtroom, get in her passing lanes, minimize off her drives and push her towards submit gamers who will make it powerful to get to the rim.

“She has performed in opposition to some good defenses,” a WNBA coach mentioned, “however no school groups have a protection like, say, [the New York Liberty’s] Breanna Stewart and Jonquel Jones, or [the Las Vegas Aces’] A’ja Wilson and Kiah Stokes within the paint.”

“I do not suppose Caitlin’s offensive recreation has to alter one bit on the subsequent stage. … These bombs, and the specter of pulling up for one each time down the ground, is a key ingredient to Clark’s greatness and recognition.”

One other professional mentioned Clark might wrestle when a giant, fast wing participant switches to protect her on dribble-handoffs, or when she’s aggressively trapped.

“She performs at an amazing tempo, however you continue to may even see groups attempt to velocity her up with the ball and attempt to push her towards your rim protector,” a WNBA coach mentioned.

Ought to Clark hold taking pictures her famed emblem 3-pointers, these long-distance photographs which have made her so arduous to protect?

“I do not suppose Caitlin’s offensive recreation has to alter one bit on the subsequent stage,” a WNBA analyst mentioned. “I would like her to take the identical photographs and make the identical passes, with the hopes that her turnover numbers drop over the course of her profession.

“These bombs, and the specter of pulling up for one each time down the ground, is a key ingredient to Clark’s greatness and recognition. It might be foolish to restrict that on the subsequent stage. Her shot vary and ballhandling are keys to manipulating defenses to get teammates open appears. I believe that interprets, too. It would not shock me if she averaged round eight assists per recreation her rookie 12 months.”

What shall be Clark’s greatest challenges on protection?

The belief is that this shall be Clark’s most troublesome transition as a result of it is typically that method for rookies. Even guards who come into the WNBA with a powerful repute for protection have a tendency to want time to regulate to all of the actions they need to defend in opposition to and the velocity, power and talent of opponents.

Iowa is not a nasty defensive workforce, but it surely’s not the Hawkeye’s greatest side — or Clark’s. There is no sugar-coating it: Groups will look to select on Clark defensively and expose any weaknesses. Whether or not within the half courtroom or in transition, WNBA groups can reap the benefits of youthful defenders in a wide range of methods.

“You are guarding an amazing participant each evening, but in addition totally different sorts of nice gamers,” a WNBA GM mentioned. “And it is the quantity of instances you get hit or bumped, like by a number of screens on the identical play. It’s a must to battle via so many alternative screening conditions at our stage.

“You do not play zone fairly often. So when you play half-hour a recreation, you might need to defend, say, 60 totally different screens within the recreation. That is a bodily and psychological adjustment. It’s a must to understand how you defend totally different screening, hearken to your submit gamers — it is loads of communication.”

Clark is 6 toes tall and stronger than she may look. However she’s nonetheless rising into her physique, and opponents will attempt to outmuscle her.

“She’s extraordinarily sensible and pushed,” a WNBA analyst mentioned. “The largest problem is simply the bodily play.”

A WNBA coach mentioned, “She shall be put in a pick-and-roll conditions the place groups look to assault her off the bounce. On transition, she should work arduous to remain in entrance of faster, extra skilled guards.”

There’s additionally the totally different model of the professional recreation vs. school.

“There is a studying curve with terminology and actions,” a WNBA coach mentioned. “However she’s prepared and has the fitting mindset.”

play

Caitlin Clark relives record-breaking shot on GMA

Caitlin Clark sits down with Robin Roberts on “Good Morning America” to relive her record-breaking shot vs. Michigan.

How will Clark be accepted within the league?

In any skilled sports activities league, rookies are inclined to have some “Welcome to the massive leagues, child” moments. Clark will are available in as essentially the most hyped rookie within the WNBA. That is due to the information she has set, the eye she has generated and the truth that NIL modifications have allowed school athletes to have much more publicity via endorsements.

It is solely a latest growth that an organization akin to Nike might create T-shirts, hold big murals and have promoting campaigns for a university participant. Clark was a part of the primary technology of faculty athletes to profit from NIL. However all of that additionally places a goal on her again.

“You are going to have veterans who simply wish to show to a brand new younger ‘it’ participant that, ‘Hey, this league is hard,'” a WNBA GM mentioned. “I imply, Sabrina Ionescu went via it. Kelsey Plum went via it. Nearly each participant that is new and hyped like that is going to undergo that.

“Her teammates will do what they will to assist her; it is of their greatest curiosity to do this. However a few of it she simply has to get via herself.

“There’s quite a bit on the shoulders of a younger guard with decision-making. She’s in all probability not going to get [foul] calls that she did in school. Opponents will attempt to get in her head. However she’s a fast learner, she strikes properly with out the ball and I believe individuals could also be shocked on the issues she will be able to do off the ball.”

What different elements of the WNBA should Clark regulate to?

As talked about, Clark’s recognition has soared, and he or she now requires further safety simply to get out and in of arenas. Safety basically has been a hot-button problem within the WNBA in recent times as gamers grow to be extra recognizable and the league extra widespread.

As a result of the WNBA nonetheless flies largely industrial, there’s the truth of getting Clark via airports with out her or her teammates being swarmed, as an illustration.

“The Fever need to be ready,” a WNBA analyst mentioned. “They’re going to have to have extra safety.”

There’s additionally the grind of WNBA journey — lengthy a subject of debate and controversy — and the schedule.

“School youngsters get within the rhythm of two video games every week,” one WNBA GM mentioned. “They do not play 5 video games in eight or 9 days like we do.”

A WNBA analyst mentioned, “The WNBA schedule will be brutal, particularly highway journeys and back-to-back video games. Solely 4 WNBA gamers [Arike Ogunbowale, Alyssa Thomas, Jewell Loyd and Breanna Stewart] averaged as many or extra minutes of their 2023 season than Caitlin has this school marketing campaign [34.1 minutes per game]. Will the Fever need her to be on the courtroom that a lot in her rookie marketing campaign?”

Does Clark have a greater probability to make the 2024 U.S. Olympic workforce as a result of she’s turning professional?

It may be powerful for Clark or any WNBA rookie/school participant to make the 12-player squad for the Paris Olympics.

USA Basketball has a historical past of including a WNBA rookie to the Olympic workforce, akin to with UConn’s Taurasi in 2004 and Stewart in 2016 and Tennessee’s Candace Parker in 2008. All three of these gamers got here into the league after successful a number of nationwide championships: Taurasi with three, Parker with two and Stewart with 4. Clark made the NCAA closing with Iowa final season, falling to LSU, and has one other probability on the title this 12 months. (ESPN at the moment tasks Iowa as a No. 2 seed, and the Hawkeyes are nonetheless a candidate for a No. 1 seed relying on what occurs in Champ Week and the Huge Ten event.)

However there’s loads of guard expertise with earlier Olympic expertise on the U.S. squad this 12 months. Discovering a spot for a rookie guard will not be straightforward.

Lastly, the timing would not work within the favor of somebody nonetheless in school now to make the U.S. workforce. The People have their closing coaching camp in Cleveland through the ladies’s Ultimate 4 weekend. Anybody enjoying within the Ultimate 4 will not have the ability to take part. And the Olympic squad is predicted to be named later in April or early Might, possible earlier than the WNBA season begins. Clark may not have a chance to make her case on the courtroom with different USA Basketball gamers.

She does have USA Basketball expertise and has proved quite a bit in her school profession. These issues, plus the prospect to provide her Olympic publicity now to assist with later in her USA Basketball profession, are factors in her favor. So it is not out of the realm of chance. However it will appear Clark’s shot on the 2028 Olympics, when she shall be 26 and in her fifth WNBA season, is extra possible.