Caitlin Clark WNBA predictions: Strengths, hurdles to count on

Caitlin Clark enters her closing Large Ten match hoping to steer Iowa to its third consecutive title. In 2022, the Hawkeyes received the match at Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis. Final 12 months, Iowa received the championship at Goal Heart in Minneapolis, web site of this season’s match.

The senior guard’s focus is absolutely on Iowa. However in a bit greater than 5 weeks, Gainbridge will turn out to be Clark’s dwelling enviornment if she is picked No. 1 as anticipated by the Indiana Fever within the WNBA draft. The Fever will go to Goal Heart — the place Clark, who was born in West Des Moines, Iowa, attended WNBA video games as a toddler — for the primary of three regular-season contests on July 14.

So whereas Clark retains her thoughts on the enterprise at hand in profiting from her closing faculty postseason, we’re trying forward to what’s coming quickly in her skilled profession. Like all WNBA rookies, Clark will expertise a whirlwind of transition over the following few months.

How will she cope with the transfer to the WNBA? What facets of the skilled sport may take essentially the most time for her to regulate to? And with the Paris Olympics 4 months away, how does that consider for Clark? ESPN talked to WNBA consultants — coaches, common managers and analysts — for his or her perception.

How will Clark’s offensive expertise translate to the WNBA?

No NCAA Division I participant has scored extra factors than Clark, and she or he’s the one participant since assists have been formally recorded within the faculty sport to have at the least 3,000 factors and 1,000 assists. Her legacy is cemented as one of many biggest offensive gamers in faculty basketball historical past.

Clark averages 32.3 factors this season and 28.3 for her profession. For perspective, Diana Taurasi’s 25.3 factors per sport in 2006 (her third 12 months within the league) is the very best common in WNBA historical past. Cynthia Cooper, who performed the primary 4 seasons within the WNBA after a prolonged abroad profession, has the very best WNBA profession scoring common at 20.98. Breanna Stewart has the very best scoring common amongst energetic gamers at 20.82.

That mentioned, consultants informed us that whereas her averages will not be as excessive as her faculty stats, Clark will stay an efficient scorer within the WNBA and her assists numbers ought to be just like those at Iowa. Clark will even have stronger expertise round her, with younger submit gamers reminiscent of Aliyah Boston and NaLyssa Smith, who’ve nice fingers and end robust on the rim. Fever guards Kelsey Mitchell and Erica Wheeler ought to assist relieve Clark on a number of the stress of scoring and ballhandling.

“Everybody talks about issues getting tougher for her within the WNBA, however it’s additionally true that some facets of the professional sport will make it simpler for her,” a WNBA common supervisor mentioned. “She can be taking part in alongside one of the best gamers she’s ever performed with. You are not going to have the ability to simply key in on her.”

Nonetheless, consultants level out that WNBA defenses can be higher geared up to protect her full courtroom, get in her passing lanes, reduce off her drives and push her towards submit gamers who will make it robust to get to the rim.

“She has performed in opposition to some good defenses,” a WNBA coach mentioned, “however no faculty groups have a protection like, say, [the New York Liberty’s] Breanna Stewart and Jonquel Jones, or [the Las Vegas Aces’] A’ja Wilson and Kiah Stokes within the paint.”

“I do not suppose Caitlin’s offensive sport has to vary one bit on the subsequent degree. … These bombs, and the specter of pulling up for one each time down the ground, is a key ingredient to Clark’s greatness and recognition.”

One other skilled mentioned Clark might battle when an enormous, fast wing participant switches to protect her on dribble-handoffs, or when she’s aggressively trapped.

“She performs at a terrific tempo, however you continue to may even see groups attempt to velocity her up with the ball and attempt to push her towards your rim protector,” a WNBA coach mentioned.

Ought to Clark preserve taking pictures her famed brand 3-pointers, these long-distance photographs which have made her so onerous to protect?

“I do not suppose Caitlin’s offensive sport has to vary one bit on the subsequent degree,” a WNBA analyst mentioned. “I would like her to take the identical photographs and make the identical passes, with the hopes that her turnover numbers drop over the course of her profession.

“These bombs, and the specter of pulling up for one each time down the ground, is a key ingredient to Clark’s greatness and recognition. It will be foolish to restrict that on the subsequent degree. Her shot vary and ballhandling are keys to manipulating defenses to get teammates open seems. I believe that interprets, too. It would not shock me if she averaged round eight assists per sport her rookie 12 months.”

What can be Clark’s largest challenges on protection?

The idea is that this can be Clark’s most tough transition as a result of it is usually that manner for rookies. Even guards who come into the WNBA with a robust fame for protection have a tendency to want time to regulate to all of the actions they have to defend in opposition to and the velocity, power and talent of opponents.

Iowa is not a nasty defensive staff, however it’s not the Hawkeye’s greatest facet — or Clark’s. There isn’t any sugar-coating it: Groups will look to choose on Clark defensively and expose any weaknesses. Whether or not within the half courtroom or in transition, WNBA groups can make the most of youthful defenders in quite a lot of methods.

“You are guarding a terrific participant each night time, but in addition completely different sorts of nice gamers,” a WNBA GM mentioned. “And it is the quantity of occasions you get hit or bumped, like by a number of screens on the identical play. You must combat by way of so many various screening conditions at our degree.

“You do not play zone fairly often. So if you happen to play half-hour a sport, you may need to defend, say, 60 completely different screens within the sport. That is a bodily and psychological adjustment. You must know the way you defend completely different screening, hearken to your submit gamers — it is a variety of communication.”

Clark is 6 toes tall and stronger than she may look. However she’s nonetheless rising into her physique, and opponents will attempt to outmuscle her.

“She’s extraordinarily good and pushed,” a WNBA analyst mentioned. “The most important problem is simply the bodily play.”

A WNBA coach mentioned, “She can be put in a pick-and-roll conditions the place groups look to assault her off the bounce. On transition, she must work onerous to remain in entrance of faster, extra skilled guards.”

There’s additionally the completely different fashion of the professional sport vs. faculty.

“There is a studying curve with terminology and actions,” a WNBA coach mentioned. “However she’s prepared and has the suitable mindset.”

play

Caitlin Clark relives record-breaking shot on GMA

Caitlin Clark sits down with Robin Roberts on “Good Morning America” to relive her record-breaking shot vs. Michigan.

How will Clark be accepted within the league?

In any skilled sports activities league, rookies are likely to have some “Welcome to the large leagues, child” moments. Clark will are available as essentially the most hyped rookie within the WNBA. That is due to the data she has set, the eye she has generated and the truth that NIL adjustments have allowed faculty athletes to have much more publicity by way of endorsements.

It is solely a current improvement that an organization reminiscent of Nike might create T-shirts, grasp large murals and have promoting campaigns for a university participant. Clark was a part of the primary era of school athletes to learn from NIL. However all of that additionally places a goal on her again.

“You are going to have veterans who simply wish to show to a brand new younger ‘it’ participant that, ‘Hey, this league is hard,'” a WNBA GM mentioned. “I imply, Sabrina Ionescu went by way of it. Kelsey Plum went by way of it. Nearly each participant that is new and hyped like that is going to undergo that.

“Her teammates will do what they’ll to assist her; it is of their greatest curiosity to do this. However a few of it she simply has to get by way of herself.

“There’s so much on the shoulders of a younger guard with decision-making. She’s in all probability not going to get [foul] calls that she did in faculty. Opponents will attempt to get in her head. However she’s a fast learner, she strikes nicely with out the ball and I believe individuals could also be shocked on the issues she will be able to do off the ball.”

What different facets of the WNBA should Clark regulate to?

As talked about, Clark’s reputation has soared, and she or he now requires extra safety simply to get out and in of arenas. Safety usually has been a hot-button problem within the WNBA lately as gamers turn out to be extra recognizable and the league extra widespread.

As a result of the WNBA nonetheless flies largely business, there’s the truth of getting Clark by way of airports with out her or her teammates being swarmed, as an illustration.

“The Fever need to be ready,” a WNBA analyst mentioned. “They’re going to must have extra safety.”

There’s additionally the grind of WNBA journey — lengthy a subject of debate and controversy — and the schedule.

“Faculty youngsters get within the rhythm of two video games per week,” one WNBA GM mentioned. “They do not play 5 video games in eight or 9 days like we do.”

A WNBA analyst mentioned, “The WNBA schedule might be brutal, particularly street journeys and back-to-back video games. Solely 4 WNBA gamers [Arike Ogunbowale, Alyssa Thomas, Jewell Loyd and Breanna Stewart] averaged as many or extra minutes of their 2023 season than Caitlin has this school marketing campaign [34.1 minutes per game]. Will the Fever need her to be on the courtroom that a lot in her rookie marketing campaign?”

Does Clark have a greater probability to make the 2024 U.S. Olympic staff as a result of she’s turning professional?

It should be robust for Clark or any WNBA rookie/faculty participant to make the 12-player squad for the Paris Olympics.

USA Basketball has a historical past of including a WNBA rookie to the Olympic staff, reminiscent of with UConn’s Taurasi in 2004 and Stewart in 2016 and Tennessee’s Candace Parker in 2008. All three of these gamers got here into the league after profitable a number of nationwide championships: Taurasi with three, Parker with two and Stewart with 4. Clark made the NCAA closing with Iowa final season, falling to LSU, and has one other probability on the title this 12 months. (ESPN at the moment tasks Iowa as a No. 2 seed, and the Hawkeyes are nonetheless a candidate for a No. 1 seed relying on what occurs in Champ Week and the Large Ten match.)

However there’s a variety of guard expertise with earlier Olympic expertise on the U.S. squad this 12 months. Discovering a spot for a rookie guard will not be straightforward.

Lastly, the timing does not work within the favor of somebody nonetheless in faculty now to make the U.S. staff. The People have their closing coaching camp in Cleveland in the course of the girls’s Ultimate 4 weekend. Anybody taking part in within the Ultimate 4 will not have the ability to take part. And the Olympic squad is anticipated to be named later in April or early Could, possible earlier than the WNBA season begins. Clark may not have a chance to make her case on the courtroom with different USA Basketball gamers.

She does have USA Basketball expertise and has proved so much in her faculty profession. These issues, plus the prospect to present her Olympic publicity now to assist with later in her USA Basketball profession, are factors in her favor. So it is not out of the realm of chance. However it might appear Clark’s shot on the 2028 Olympics, when she can be 26 and in her fifth WNBA season, is extra possible.