Australian Open: Novak Djokovic vs. Taylor Fritz — Can Fritz discover a strategy to win?

MELBOURNE, Australia — After Novak Djokovic’s fourth-round Australian Open demolition of Adrian Mannarino, on-court interviewer Jim Courier requested the world No. 1 to share some early ideas on his subsequent match.

At that second, it was unclear who Djokovic’s quarterfinal opponent could be, as twelfth seed Taylor Fritz and final 12 months’s runner-up, Stefanos Tsitsipas, have been busy battling away a couple of courts over.

“Stefanos and I performed the ultimate right here final 12 months. He is been a longtime top-five, top-10 participant for a few years now. Very skilled with enjoying on an enormous stage. He is acquired the whole recreation. Nice participant, little doubt,” Djokovic mentioned. “Then again, you’ve gotten Fritz. Let’s examine.”

The superlatives have been flowing freely for Tsitsipas and spared for Fritz. Was it merely an indication of confidence from the 24-time main champion? Most likely.

An hour later, Fritz confirmed his place within the final eight after knocking out the Greek star in 4 units.

“If I beat somebody eight occasions in a row, I would be fairly assured enjoying them, too. I can not actually fault [Djokovic] for that,” Fritz mentioned. “It has been one-sided with Novak. I really feel like he is performed me just about the identical each time.”

However is it really a certain victory for the defending Australian Open champ? We have a look.

Why Novak Djokovic will win

The place do you start? Djokovic hasn’t misplaced on the Australian Open in over six years, he holds an eye-popping 93-8 profession document on the match and, oh yeah, he has hoisted the trophy a document 10 occasions. The world No. 1 has additionally feasted on Individuals on the majors, shedding simply 3 times from 38 matchups.

There’s additional motivation for him this fortnight, too. Djokovic is searching one other slice of tennis historical past, one thing that might finish the GOAT debate as soon as and for all. An eleventh Djokovic triumph in Melbourne would transfer him to outright first for main singles titles (25), breaking his present tie with Australia’s Margaret Court docket.

However why ought to Djokovic fancy this particular matchup?

Fritz has by no means overwhelmed Djokovic. He has performed him eight occasions, and eight occasions he has fallen nicely quick. Djokovic has additionally gained the previous 12 units of tennis in opposition to Fritz, courting again to their assembly at this very match in 2021.

Of their most up-to-date match, eventually 12 months’s US Open, Djokovic was in management all through. He dictated the play, neutralized Fritz’s weapons and cruised to a cushty 6-1, 6-4, 6-4 victory.

Do not low cost the back-against-the-wall issue, both. It is truthful to say Djokovic had simply been plodding alongside within the early rounds of this 12 months’s match, however ever since that back-and-forth with an unruly spectator in his second-round match, he has appeared scarily dominant. He crushed Mannarino in his most up-to-date outing, relinquishing simply three video games within the rout.

“In the present day was the most effective day, by way of tennis, the way in which I felt on the courtroom,” Djokovic mentioned after his fourth-round win. “I am actually excited to enter the second week. I sit up for the battles as a result of clearly the opponents are higher-ranked. There isn’t any straightforward matches, little doubt about that.”

Djokovic merely thrives underneath these circumstances, and the encounter with that unruly fan would possibly nicely have jump-started his recreation.

Why Taylor Fritz will win

May Sunday’s win over Tsitsipas have unlocked a brand new degree of confidence for Fritz, the lone American man left within the subject? Previous to that contest, he was 0-10 in Slam matches in opposition to top-10-ranked opponents. He’s lastly over that hurdle, and the monkey would possibly nicely be off his again.

Whereas Djokovic breezed by way of his fourth-round match in opposition to Mannarino, he hasn’t been completely invincible this match. Actually, for the primary time since 2018, he dropped units in each of his opening matches of a Slam marketing campaign. The Serbian star has additionally confirmed he’s battling a virus this fortnight in Melbourne, and it would not seem he has absolutely overcome it.

A lot of this can sound extra like “why Djokovic might lose” versus “why Fritz will win,” however the world No. 12 will want each little benefit he can get if he is to trigger the upset.

As talked about, Fritz was defeated simply when he final performed Djokovic at this identical quarterfinal stage at Flushing Meadows, however it wasn’t as if he did not create alternatives. Fritz carved out 12 break level possibilities. The issue? He transformed simply two of them.

Fritz additionally struggled together with his serve that day. Simply 55% of his first serves landed in play, one thing you’ll anticipate to be an space of appreciable enchancment this time round. By means of his 4 matches in Melbourne, Fritz is touchdown 66% of his first serves and is but to dip beneath 64% in any match.

“I feel that I’ve much more degree to deliver than I’ve beforehand introduced in opposition to him,” Fritz mentioned. “I feel the situations listed here are positively higher than the US Open.”

Fritz additionally enjoys the uncommon benefit of dealing with Djokovic within the second week of a serious and being the more energizing participant. By means of 4 matches, Djokovic has spent 11 hours and 24 minutes on courtroom, whereas Fritz clocks in at 10 hours and 55 minutes. It may appear negligible, however once more, any slight edge is one thing when dealing with the most effective participant on the planet.

It should be a monumental problem for Fritz, however he’s definitely in type. Possibly the type of his life.

“Begin to end I performed very well,” Fritz mentioned after his win over Tsitsipas. “I am tremendous completely satisfied about the way in which I completed it. The final three video games of the match I actually, actually turned it on, virtually like I used to be in a trance and all the pieces. I felt like I knew precisely what shot to hit, the proper resolution to make on each ball. It has been some time since I’ve had that feeling, so it provides me a whole lot of confidence.”

What’s going to occur?

It is tough to see Fritz lastly turning the tables on Djokovic on the match Djokovic has merely owned all through his profession. Count on a good first two units earlier than Djokovic runs away with the match within the third.