Anderson’s evaluation: Why Manon Fiorot might be Erin Blanchfield’s hardest check but

The ladies’s flyweight division can have a brand new No. 1 contender this weekend. MMA’s finest younger prospect, Erin Blanchfield, will face fellow title contender Manon Fiorot in the principle occasion at UFC Struggle Night time on Saturday (10 p.m. ET on ESPN/ESPN+).

Blanchfield, No. 1 on ESPN’s 2023 25 underneath 25 record, might earn a title alternative in opposition to champion Alexa Grasso and turn out to be the youngest champion in UFC historical past if she will get previous Fiorot. Blanchfield is ESPN’s No. 4-ranked flyweight.

Fiorot, who’s 5-foot-7, typically has a top and attain benefit over her opponents, and she or he is a wonderful striker nonetheless searching for her first shot at UFC gold. Like Blanchfield, Fiorot can be undefeated contained in the Octagon. Fiorot is No. 3 in ESPN’s flyweight rankings.

Whereas this struggle has monumental implications for the division, the winner could have to attend for his or her title shot, as Grasso is anticipated to face Valentina Shevchenko in a trilogy bout after teaching on the upcoming season of “The Final Fighter.”

What makes each fighters particular? What are their potential weaknesses? Let’s check out how this high-stakes struggle would possibly play out.

Do not rule out the underdog

Though Blanchfield (-190 per ESPN BET) has confronted powerful competitors in former strawweight champion Jessica Andrade and former flyweight title challenger Taila Santos, this would be the actual litmus check for her. Blanchfield bulldozed her manner via opponents till she confronted Santos final yr. Whereas Blanchfield received that struggle, she needed to work via adversity. And Fiorot is a a lot harder matchup for Blanchfield.

Fiorot (+160 per ESPN BET) is a southpaw whose vary management and systematic method might resolve this struggle. She’s a sound fighter who at all times is available in with a sport plan that she sticks to. A giant a part of that plan is Fiorot’s finest weapon: the jab. If Blanchfield cannot shut down her jab, it could possibly be an extended evening for her.

Along with her quick arms and in-and-out motion, Fiorot throws the jab in quantity whereas nonetheless touchdown at a excessive proportion. However how she makes use of it makes it so troublesome to regulate to.

And even when opponents keep away from the jab and enter vary to throw their strikes, they have to get previous Fiorot’s kicking vary. Doing so is troublesome as a result of she throws a singular mixture of facet and indirect kicks that opponents should struggle via. After which they need to get previous the vary of her punches earlier than closing the space sufficient to grapple or shoot for a takedown. Fiorot’s opponents should account for her bodily power and distinctive takedown protection. Fiorot does nicely avoiding getting caught in open mat takedown makes an attempt. She at all times will get again to the fence after which makes use of that place to assist her defend the takedown.

Throughout the uncommon events that Fiorot has to struggle on the mat, she’s good at leveraging her weight. When taken down, she by no means settles for that backside place.

Fiorot is a protected, technical fighter. She’s well-rounded, with energy in her arms however would not take many dangers. She has often been the aggressor, whereas not placing herself in lots of dangerous positions.

Whereas she would not have many finishes contained in the Octagon, Fiorot has largely been dominant in every of her bouts, even when taking over top-level opponents. Her previous 4 wins got here in opposition to fighters who’ve held or challenged for a UFC title.

Whereas Fiorot does a lot nicely, there are nonetheless some weaknesses in her sport that an opponent might capitalize on.

One is her head motion. When she throws punches, Fiorot leaves her head on the middle line. She additionally typically seems to lean again when she throws, like she’s making an attempt to keep away from getting hit when she throws strikes.

There’s additionally the query about her submission offense. We have established that she does nicely defensively when a struggle goes to the mat, however understanding that she’s taking over someone who will look to take the struggle to the bottom. How will Fiorot fare if she needs to be a menace there?

How can Blanchfield hold rolling?

Blanchfield has earned the entire hype that she has generated. She improves each time we see her within the cage, however we nonetheless have not seen her attain her full potential.

She is widely known as a Brazilian jiu-jitsu prodigy, so when her fights hit the bottom, she has but to face a lot adversity. We do not often see many jiu-jitsu specialists develop a robust placing sport, however Blanchfield has, doing so in simply a few years.

In opposition to Santos, a confirmed high-level striker, Blanchfield was keen to face and bang together with her. Blanchfield would not draw back from her placing and is keen to develop and study. She’s an actual scholar of the sport.

To beat a fighter as expert as Fiorot, Blanchfield should present that she is healthier at combining placing and grappling. Very similar to the Santos struggle, it is arduous to think about that Blanchfield will simply get Fiorot to the mat. To seize ahold of Fiorot, she has to aggressively shut vary.

Blanchfield should perceive that she must get hit at instances, however she mustn’t let that deter her from throwing strikes at a excessive quantity. Typically, she ought to double, even triple up, on the jab to arrange takedowns together with her placing. She additionally has to make use of feints in order that Fiorot cannot get a beat on when the takedown makes an attempt are coming.

When going through expert wrestlers and grapplers, opponents are sometimes so involved about the specter of a takedown that it opens alternatives for placing. Blanchfield must capitalize on that.

There may also be openings for leg kicks in opposition to Fiorot. When shifting out and in, Fiorot typically places quite a lot of weight on her lead (proper) leg. If Blanchfield can time her kicks proper, it might gradual Fiorot’s motion. If Blanchfield can try this, getting the takedowns she’s searching for might be a lot simpler.

We have additionally seen Fiorot take physique kicks that appeared to have an effect on her. She’s an enormous fighter for the division, so she could not have the simplest time chopping weight. Attacking the physique early might put on her down all through the struggle and repay later.

And when Blanchfield will get within the pocket, she has to make it a brawl. Do not permit Fiorot to set the tempo and hold the struggle fairly. If Blanchfield can drive Fiorot to struggle at a tempo that she is uncomfortable with, we have seen Fiorot wrestle.

How will it play out

This can be a powerful struggle to name. Each fighters are proficient, however I believe Fiorot’s placing would be the distinction on this struggle. It will not be straightforward; Fiorot must aggressively defend takedowns for 25 minutes, however I see her pulling it off to win by determination.

Fiorot is a fighter who prefers being at vary and excels at conserving fights there. I am simply undecided Blanchfield will be capable to shut the vary, and even when she does, I am undecided she’ll be capable to get Fiorot down. Fiorot’s takedown protection is simply that good.