UFC 298: Can Alexander Volkanovski beat Ilia Topuria and Father Time?

ALEXANDER VOLKANOVSKI STILL LAUGHS concerning the time in 2019 when he was explicitly advised to not get a haircut throughout struggle week.

Volkanovski was in Rio de Janeiro to face Jose Aldo at UFC 237, and the promotion assigned him a digital camera all week for its behind-the-scenes collection, “Embedded.” When Volkanovski talked about that he supposed to see a barber that Monday, it was met with real concern by the producers. No, no, he mustn’t try this. Did not he know concerning the curse? Everybody who acquired their hair reduce on “Embedded” misplaced.

Volkanovski, who will look to efficiently defend his featherweight championship towards Ilia Topuria at UFC 298 on Saturday in Anaheim, California, went forward with the trim and dominated Aldo at UFC 237 to earn his first title shot.

“Everybody advised us to not do it,” remembers Volkanovski’s head coach, Joe Lopez. “Alex debunked that fable. Then all of them advised him, ‘Do not give [Octagon announcer] Bruce Buffer a fist bump, it is dangerous luck.’ And Alex eradicated that one. We’re not into myths. We do our factor, and that is it.”

Going into this weekend, one other “fable” is staring Volkanovski (26-3) within the face: Can the 35-year-old win at his age? Whether or not it is real or not will depend on the attention of the beholder.

Within the historical past of UFC title fights at 170 kilos (welterweight) and under, male athletes ages 35 and older have a mixed report of 2-23. Sports activities Illustrated famous that report in 2023, and it has grown in notoriety throughout the sport since. Six fighters age 35 or older appeared in UFC title fights final 12 months, and all six misplaced.

A type of was Volkanovski himself. The featherweight champ celebrated his birthday lower than a month earlier than difficult Islam Makhachev (31) for the light-weight belt at UFC 294 in October. Volkanovski misplaced by way of knockout for the primary time in his UFC profession, however the outcome got here with an asterisk, as he took the struggle on simply 12 days of discover when Makhachev’s authentic opponent withdrew. It was additionally above his pure weight class.

In contrast, this Saturday could be very a lot inside Volkanovski’s norm. He is had loads of time to arrange, and the struggle is again at 145 kilos, a weight class wherein he has by no means misplaced.

In different phrases, that is his first “authentic” title struggle since turning 35. Topuria is 27, so a win on Saturday would basically be Volkanovski defying UFC title struggle historical past — which implies about as a lot to him as that haircut did again in 2019.

“I get it, individuals care about stats,” Volkanovski advised ESPN. “However with the quantity of occasions I’ve confirmed that I am not your regular human being, why would I care about stats? Folks will shortly bear in mind who I’m on this struggle, and unexpectedly, nobody goes to care about that stat anymore. A 12 months in the past, they had been saying I used to be the most effective on the planet. Now I am outdated, as a result of a number of months have passed by? Come on.”

Buy UFC 298 on ESPN+ PPV

CONSIDERING VOLKANOVSKI’S RECORD, it is practically inconceivable to doubt him. Throughout his four-year reign because the featherweight king, there have been 29 title adjustments within the UFC. Volkanovski’s degree of dominance has been a uncommon feat within the sport as of late. So, this 2-23 factor is meaningless, proper? Yeah, he turned 35 final 12 months, however he is nonetheless the identical Volk.

Former light-weight champion and Corridor of Famer Frankie Edgar would have dismissed the stat if he had been in Volkanovski’s place. In reality, he did. Edgar was 37 when he fought Max Holloway for the featherweight title in 2019. Holloway was 10 years youthful and gained a transparent unanimous choice. Edgar did not view his age as a drawback again then, nor did he view it as a drawback as he continued to compete within the UFC into his 40s.

Wanting again on his retirement, nonetheless, Edgar is keen to rethink that notion. Age issues.

“I hate to say it, as a result of I used to be by no means a man who listened to labels or stats whereas I used to be preventing, however numbers do not lie,” Edgar stated. “And people numbers say that it is a younger man’s sport.”

Of all the good champions and title challengers in UFC historical past who competed at age 35 or older, just one managed to get it accomplished: former welterweight champion Tyron Woodley.

Woodley accounts for each wins in that 2-23 report, with title defenses towards Demian Maia and Darren Until. And a type of is a bit deceptive, as Maia (39) was older than Woodley (35) after they fought for the title in 2017.

Regardless, Woodley is the lone exception to the 35-and-over rule. What was his secret? What sort of genius and superior coaching was he utilizing that made him distinctive in UFC title struggle historical past?

“If I may give him props for one thing particular, it is simply that Tyron was in a position to be higher a bit of bit longer than these different guys,” stated Din Thomas, Woodley’s former coach and at the moment an analyst for ESPN and UFC. “I am proud as hell of our place in that report, however we weren’t doing something totally different. Man, half the time ‘coaching’ with Woodley was us simply hanging out, as a result of he was all the time harm. He would lay on his abdomen and I might stroll on his again to loosen him up. We might begin coaching, and if he began to tighten up, OK, I would stroll on him once more. After the session? Stroll on him once more.”

In fact, there have been different components to Woodley’s success at ages 35 and 36, however he and his staff say they weren’t issues one other fighter might replicate. They had been primarily simply truths of Woodley’s profession.

One was that Woodley competed at 170 kilos, the heaviest weight class within the 2-23 statistic. The precise results of age on a fighter are laborious to quantify. The UFC Efficiency Institutes in Las Vegas and China, with two extra proposed areas in Mexico and Nigeria, are thought-about the gold normal for contemporary, data-driven coaching and restoration — and even they do not accumulate a lot info on the physiological adjustments of an athlete over time.

That stated, the proof suggesting it’s a lot more durable for growing older fighters to succeed on the highest degree within the lightest weight courses is irrefutable. In reality, within the weight courses of 205 kilos and above, male athletes aged 35 and over have a successful report of 33-28-1 in UFC title fights. So, Woodley merely competing on the weight he did might need helped him beat the stat.

“Welterweight is a fair match of velocity and energy,” Woodley advised ESPN. “The decrease you go [in weight], the extra velocity there may be, proper? It is a velocity factor. These youthful children are additionally extra expert as of late, as a result of they have been coaching MMA at an earlier age, somewhat than coming over from one self-discipline. So, I really feel like Volkanovski’s check would possibly even be a tick above [what it’s been historically].”

One facet that may be a should, after all, is motivation — and Woodley felt either side of that. In 2017 and 2018, when he defended his title towards Maia and Until, Woodley had a ton of exterior motivation. He was the champion, however he incessantly felt at odds with the UFC and its fan base over his benefit because the champion. Woodley was nonetheless preventing laborious for recognition and respect at age 35, which is normally not the case for a champion sitting on a number of title defenses.

“My complete motivation throughout that point was like, ‘Oh, you suppose this motherf—er can beat me? You suppose Until can beat me?'” Woodley stated. “Let me present you one thing actual fast.”

In response to Thomas, Woodley’s camp for the Until struggle in 2018 was among the finest of his profession. One month earlier than preventing Until, Woodley was in attendance at UFC 227 when former flyweight champion Demetrious Johnson misplaced his title to Henry Cejudo within the co-main occasion. Thomas remembers that have, and paired with the disrespect Woodley was feeling from the promotion and followers on the time, all of it led to a hyper-focused effort — beginning that evening.

“Tyron acquired so motivated watching Demetrious lose, we really educated at that occasion,” Thomas stated. “We went and located an empty room in Staples Heart and labored out. Demetrious was the GOAT at the moment, so if he might lose, anyone might lose.

“Tyron was within the crowd and stated, ‘Yo, I am so motivated proper now. I’m not shedding my belt to Darren Until.’ And increase, we had been in a room coaching. We did not even watch the primary occasion that evening as a result of we had been coaching.”

After defeating Until, nonetheless, Woodley’s motivation began to wane. His physique was banged up, positive, however he attributes the decline in efficiency late in his profession to an entire lack of motivation. He misplaced his belt to Kamaru Usman in 2019, and as a result of COVID-19 pandemic, he fought his closing three fights within the UFC’s empty Apex in Las Vegas. In his personal phrases, Woodley “acquired bored with proving individuals unsuitable.” He misplaced 16 consecutive rounds throughout 4 losses to finish his UFC profession.

“It is laborious when the main target is not there,” Thomas stated. “As a result of I can inform you proper now — at 36 years outdated, your want to simply f— any person up is gone. Once you’re 25, all you wish to do is f— any person up. Once you’re 36, you are like, ‘Do I actually wish to f— any person up?’ And as soon as that is over, it is laborious to get again.”

As the one success story of the 2-23 stat, what does Woodley suppose? Is the age of 35 a dependable gauge of a lighter fighter’s potential to win a UFC title struggle? Or is it a fable, like Volkanovski intends to show?

“I do not know Volkanovski personally, however he is all the time come off to me as a tough employee, any person that is not simply doing the lovable s— within the health club — hitting mitts and shadow boxing,” Woodley stated. “All these individuals wish to take shortcuts [later in their careers], they only wish to spar and kickbox, no one desires to get off the underside and work off their again, it is a cocky factor. I really feel like Volkanovski is totally different, and he could possibly be the man to get it accomplished, and get it accomplished a number of occasions, really.”

EVERY WEEK, VOLKANOVSKI’S COACH, Lopez, runs his steady of fighters via numerous health assessments.

It varies from week to week, however the check all the time consists of 5 rounds wherein fighters work to a state of fatigue via particular person or staff drills earlier than finishing particular workout routines. Every fighter should full a full set of the train, and every spherical is timed. Not surprisingly, Volkanovski excels in these weekly assessments, and his efficiency occasions haven’t declined lately, in response to Lopez.

“He is doing a few of these drills in a single minute which might be taking different guys two minutes,” Lopez stated. “And his occasions within the fourth and fifth rounds are the identical and even higher than his occasions within the first spherical. As soon as we attain a degree in his profession the place we’re not getting our occasions in these workout routines, possibly I am going to speak to him [about age]. In the intervening time, he is nonetheless punching in these occasions.”

These numbers imply much more to Volkanovski than the “2-23” he is been compelled to handle main as much as UFC 298. That stated, he does not thoughts this report being part of his story. He is acquired a narrative of his personal — in UFC featherweight historical past, the youthful fighter has gained simply six occasions in title bouts. 5 of these wins had been by … Volkanovski. Volkanovski remains to be favored by oddsmakers on Saturday, however there has by no means earlier than been this sense of doubt round certainly one of his title defenses. A few of that has to do along with his knockout loss in October. A few of it has to do with Topuria’s expertise. And foolish or not, a few of it issues this stat.

And Volkanovski says he welcomes all of it. He appreciates the doubt.

“Folks wish to carry within the age factor now, and that is good,” Volkanovski says. “I’ve acquired a younger, undefeated prospect that everybody is hyping up. This suits completely into the story that I wish to inform. [Topuria] is a assured younger man who must be humbled, and I am trying ahead to that. This is not nearly successful. I wish to give him life lesson.

“You wish to be a champion? You have to earn that s—. He is gonna be taught that.”