NFL divisional spherical playoff recreation picks, schedule, information

The NFL playoffs’ divisional spherical schedule for the 2023 season is stacked with nice matchups, and we have got you coated with what you must know heading into the weekend. Our NFL Nation reporters carry us the largest keys to each recreation and a daring prediction for every matchup.

Moreover, ESPN Stats & Info gives an enormous stat to know and a betting nugget for every contest, and our Soccer Energy Index (FPI) goes contained in the numbers with a recreation projection. Analytics author Seth Walder picks out every matchup’s greatest X issue, Matt Bowen identifies a key game-planning matchup to look at in each recreation, and Kevin Seifert tells us what to know concerning the officiating. Lastly, Walder and Eric Moody give us ultimate rating picks for each recreation. All the pieces you wish to know is right here in a single spot that will help you prepare for a loaded weekend of NFL playoff soccer.

Let’s get into the complete divisional slate, together with a Patrick Mahomes-Josh Allen showdown, the Lions making an attempt to maintain their playoff run going and the surging Texans and Packers visiting the No. 1 seeds as large underdogs.

Leap to a matchup:
HOU-BAL | GB-SF
TB-DET | KC-BUF

Saturday, 4:30 p.m. ET | ESPN/ABC/ESPN+ | Unfold: BAL -9.5 (43.5)

What to look at for: One irritating postseason streak will come to an finish. Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson is 0-2 within the divisional spherical, throwing one landing move and three interceptions. However the Texans are 0-4 within the divisional spherical, shedding by a median of 14.5 factors. — Jamison Hensley

Daring prediction: Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud will throw for over 300 yards, changing into the primary quarterback to attain that feat towards the Ravens since Tom Brady threw for 325 yards on Oct. 27, 2022. Stroud led the league in passing yards per recreation this season (273) and will have thrown for nicely over 300 within the wild-card recreation towards the Browns’ No. 1-ranked protection when he threw for 236 within the first half. — DJ Bien-Aime

Stat to know: The Ravens used play-action on the seventh-highest charge within the common season (26%), and Jackson thrived with it, rating within the high seven within the league in QBR, completion share and yards per try. Nonetheless, the Texans have been among the many worst defenses defending play-action this season — they ranked within the backside 5 in QBR, completion share and yards per try.

Matchup X issue: The Texans’ offensive line. All season the Ravens have used simulated stress to disrupt their opponent’s safety to nice success whereas nonetheless sustaining numbers in protection. The Ravens recorded 27 sacks with simulated stress, greater than another crew. Houston’s offensive line must be prepared if it will defend Stroud. — Walder

Sport-plan key: I would prefer to see Houston offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik get Stroud exterior of the pocket on some boot ideas to drag Baltimore defenders, with tight finish Dalton Schultz working because the beneath goal. That may very well be key to the Texans getting right into a rhythm towards the actually good Ravens protection. Learn extra at ESPN+. — Bowen

Accidents: Texans | Ravens

Officiating word: In a 12 months when NFL officers threw extra flags for intentional grounding (61) than in any season since no less than 2000, it ought to be famous that referee John Hussey’s regular-season crew was essentially the most aggressive with seven such flags. And because it seems, Jackson took 5 such penalties, most within the NFL. Stroud took one. — Seifert

Betting nugget: The Ravens are 11-6 towards the unfold (ATS) this season (unders are 9-8). The Texans are 10-8 ATS, together with the playoffs (unders are 11-7).

Moody’s choose: Ravens 37, Texans 24
Walder’s choose: Ravens 27, Texans 20
FPI prediction: BAL, 81.7% (by a median of 12.8 factors)

Matchup must-reads: How the Texans’ draft night time modified the franchise … Ravens add Cook dinner to roster, waive Gordon … Stroud ‘particular’ as Texans get wild-card revenge on Browns … Jackson enters playoffs, proving floor vs. Texans

Saturday, 8:15 p.m. ET | Fox | Unfold: SF -9.5 (50.5)

What to look at for: That is an NFL-record tenth playoff assembly between the Niners and the Packers, with San Francisco holding a 5-4 edge in these video games. What’s extra, the Niners have received six straight NFC divisional-round playoff video games, the longest energetic streak within the NFL. The winner will both take or share the title of winningest crew in postseason historical past. The Packers are tied with the Patriots at 37 and will transfer into first place alone with a win, whereas a 49ers victory would tie them with Inexperienced Bay and New England. — Nick Wagoner

Daring prediction: Jayden Reed would be the Packers’ main receiver. How can a man who did not catch a single move the week earlier than pull that off? Effectively, the Packers have not had the identical main receiver when it comes to yards in consecutive weeks since Romeo Doubs in Weeks 3 and 4. Doubs led the way in which once more final week towards the Cowboys, so maybe the 49ers will roll their protection his method. Reed set the franchise document for catches by a rookie with 64 this season. — Rob Demovsky

Stat to know: The 49ers have received their previous 5 house playoff video games, the longest energetic streak within the NFL, with two of these wins coming towards the Packers (2012 divisional spherical and 2019 NFC Championship). The 49ers have dominated these matchups, with 4 of 5 wins coming by 14-plus factors.

Matchup X issue: Packers quarterback Jordan Love. I picked him because the X issue final week, and you understand what? He was the X issue. Since Week 10 and into the playoffs, Love now leads the NFL in QBR (78.4) — and it isn’t even shut. Dak Prescott is second in that span at 73.7. That stage of quarterback play offers the Packers an opportunity towards anybody, the 49ers included. — Walder

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Dan Orlovsky’s recommendation for Jordan Love towards the 49ers

Dan Orlovsky joins “The Pat McAfee Present” to share his ideas on how Jordan Love can beat the 49ers.

Sport-plan key: San Francisco receiver Deebo Samuel averaged 8.8 yards after the catch this season, main all WRs. Coach Kyle Shanahan will scheme open-field alternatives for him, which suggests the Packers will must be on their tackling A-game. Inexperienced Bay has to restrict Samuel’s numbers post-catch to drag the upset. Learn extra at ESPN+. — Bowen

Accidents: Packers | 49ers

Officiating word: Referee Alex Kemp’s regular-season crew led the NFL with a median of 15.3 flags per recreation. The Packers and 49ers each completed within the high third of the NFL for many flags this season, the 49ers with 125 and the Packers with 124. — Seifert

Betting nugget: The Packers have received 4 straight video games outright as underdogs, their longest underdog win streak since 2011-12.

Moody’s choose: 49ers 31, Packers 21
Walder’s choose: 49ers 30, Packers 23
FPI prediction: SF, 78.6% (by a median of 11.2 factors)

Matchup must-reads: Put up-Rodgers, LaFleur thrives with Love … Shanahan, LaFleur’s lengthy NFL historical past … McCaffrey (calf) full participant in 49ers apply … Purdy makes use of inner motivation to take care of edge

Sunday, 3 p.m. ET | NBC | Unfold: DET -6.5 (48.5)

What to look at for: Recent off profitable their first playoff recreation in 32 years, the Lions will host their first NFC divisional spherical look for the reason that 1991 playoffs. These groups will conflict for the second time this season after Detroit received their regular-season matchup 20-6 at Tampa Bay. Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield and Lions quarterback Jared Goff have each revitalized their careers in new settings as former No. 1 total picks and can look to hold their respective groups with their sturdy play. — Eric Woodyard

Daring prediction: The Bucs will maintain the Lions underneath 20 factors … and win. Tampa Bay will as soon as once more be the underdog, Detroit’s going to be as hostile a setting because it will get and coach Todd Bowles hasn’t crushed Goff since 2019, when Goff was with the Rams and Bowles was the Bucs’ defensive coordinator. However the protection discovered its footing final week in one in all Bowles’ best-called video games, and Mayfield’s bodily doing lots higher with these rib and ankle accidents. — Jenna Laine

Stat to know: The Buccaneers’ protection has blitzed on 41% of dropbacks by opposing quarterbacks this season, the third-highest charge within the NFL. They might look to dial that up much more towards Goff, who has seven turnovers when blitzed this season, tied for second most within the NFL.

Matchup X issue: Lions edge rusher Aidan Hutchinson. He’s on a three-game multisack streak and is coming off a 33% move rush win charge recreation within the wild-card spherical (greater than double his regular-season charge). The Lions’ move protection is their weak point, but when Hutchinson will get going, the Lions may draw back quick. — Walder

Sport-plan key: Will we see Lions receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown and Buccaneers nook Carlton Davis III in one-on-one man protection matchups? St. Brown had 124 yards towards Tampa Bay again in Week 6, so the Bucs want a plan right here — doubtlessly with Davis in protection and security assist spinning down late. Learn extra at ESPN+. — Bowen

Accidents: Buccaneers | Lions

Officiating word: Referee Invoice Vinovich’s regular-season crew is often one of many stingiest within the NFL. In 2023, nonetheless, it averaged 13.4 flags per recreation, tied for the seventh fewest within the NFL. When the Lions and Bucs met within the common season, the groups mixed for 10 flags — 5 apiece. — Seifert

Betting nugget: Each groups are 12-6 ATS this season, which is tied for the second-best mark behind the Raiders (12-5 ATS). Unders are 12-6 in Buccaneers video games, whereas overs are 11-7 in Lions video games.

Moody’s choose: Lions 28, Buccaneers 21
Walder’s choose: Lions 34, Buccaneers 17
FPI prediction: DET, 62.5% (by a median of 4.5 factors)

Matchup must-reads: Mayfield responds to Lions DB’s barb … Goff leads Lions in revenge win over Rams … Mayfield leads underdog Bucs to shocking playoff win … Oral historical past of the Lions’ final playoff win

Sunday, 6:30 p.m. ET | CBS | Unfold: BUF -2.5 (45.5)

What to look at for: For the primary time on this rivalry between Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen, the Chiefs are coming to Orchard Park for the postseason. The quarterbacks have met six instances, with the Payments profitable three of the 4 regular-season conferences, and the Chiefs taking each postseason video games (2020 and 2021). The distinction for the Payments within the common and postseason matchups is the defensive success. Within the common season, the Payments have held the Chiefs to twenty.8 factors per recreation and produced 9 takeaways, however within the playoffs, Kansas Metropolis has averaged 40 factors per recreation and had just one turnover. There will probably be an enormous take a look at forward for a Payments protection coping with quite a lot of accidents. — Alaina Getzenberg

Daring prediction: Mahomes and Allen will mix for no less than six TD passes. These two at all times placed on a present once they play, notably within the postseason. Mahomes and Allen mixed for 5 scoring passes within the AFC Championship Sport after the 2020 season and 7 within the divisional spherical the subsequent season. The circumstances will probably be lower than ideally suited, however that hasn’t stopped them earlier than. — Adam Teicher

Stat to know: One space which may differentiate the Payments from the Chiefs may very well be profitable the turnover battle. The Payments pressured 30 turnovers this season, the second most within the NFL (the Ravens and Giants pressured 31 every). The Chiefs pressured 17 turnovers this season, the twenty seventh most within the NFL.

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Why Stephen A. thinks Josh Allen will outduel Patrick Mahomes

Stephen A. Smith makes his case for Josh Allen and the Payments to high Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs within the AFC divisional spherical.

Matchup X issue: The Payments’ cornerback well being. Taron Johnson (concussion), Rasul Douglas (knee) and Christian Benford (knee) are all banged up. Whereas Buffalo appears like the higher crew on paper, a depleted secondary towards Mahomes looks as if a harmful mixture. — Walder

Sport-plan key: Within the Week 14 matchup between these groups, Payments working again James Cook dinner had 83 receiving yards. Search for the Payments to get Cook dinner concerned within the passing recreation once more with backfield releases and screens. And search for Chiefs linebacker Nick Bolton to be key in limiting these performs. Learn extra at ESPN+. — Bowen

Accidents: Chiefs | Payments

Officiating word: Shawn Hochuli is without doubt one of the NFL’s extra energetic referees. Through the common season, he threw an NFL-high 14 flags for roughing the passer, 5 greater than the next-closest referee. Since changing into a referee in 2018, he has led the league with 61 such flags. That would show attention-grabbing, as Allen has grown adept at drawing roughing the passer fouls. He drew six in 2023, essentially the most within the league. Mahomes drew just one. — Seifert

Betting nugget: Mahomes is 10-5 ATS in his playoff profession, together with 7-2 ATS when he’s not no less than a seven-point favourite. Allen is 3-6 ATS in his playoff profession.

Moody’s choose: Payments 31, Chiefs 27
Walder’s choose: Chiefs 32, Payments 31
FPI prediction: BUF, 56.6% (by a median of two.3 factors)

Matchup must-reads: How Mahomes has navigated the worst season of his profession … Allen’s TD sprint wows Payments in wild-card win vs. Steelers … Mahomes gears up for Allen once more, compares to Brady-Manning