NFL divisional spherical betting information: Props, odds, strains, extra

The NFL’s divisional spherical is correct across the nook, and the betting market is loaded with participant props. That is why we’re bringing you the NFL betting playbook, highlighting a few of the prime choices for every of this weekend’s pivotal playoff video games.

My weekly betting playbook options a number of information factors for every of this weekend’s scheduled video games, together with my evaluation of some notable strains I am excited by betting, though this text is designed in a means that permits you to decide your personal favorites.

Completely for ESPN+ members: If you would like to see an inventory of round 100 props and my really helpful performs for every, please click on on this hyperlink.

Notice: Odds by ESPN BET and proper as of time of publication.

Houston Texans @ Baltimore Ravens -9.5
M&T Financial institution Stadium, Baltimore
Saturday 4:30 p.m. ET

Cash Line: Houston Texans (+340); Baltimore Ravens (-420)
Complete: 43.5; Opened: 45.5
FPI favourite: Ravens by 12.8 (81.7% to win outright)

Clay’s Projected Rating: Ravens 26, Texans 20

• Gus Edwards below 13.5 speeding makes an attempt (-120): Edwards was energetic for all 17 of Baltimore’s regular-season video games and was nonetheless restricted to solely 43% of the staff’s designed speeding makes an attempt. That labored out to 11.6 per recreation, and he completed 11 of these 17 outings with fewer than 14 carries. All six exceptions got here in Baltimore wins by no less than seven factors. Edwards has seen his carry complete dip as of late, having fallen wanting 14 carries in seven of his previous 9 video games. The veteran again has been sharing the backfield with Justice Hill and is predicted to defer some carries to newcomer Dalvin Cook dinner throughout the playoffs. Houston has arguably the league’s greatest run protection, having allowed a league-low 3.3 yards per carry throughout the common season. Edwards is an efficient wager to fall quick right here, and that may particularly be the case if Houston retains it comparatively shut.

Inexperienced Bay Packers @ San Francisco 49ers -9.5
Levi’s Stadium, Santa Clara, California
Saturday 8:15 p.m. ET

Cash Line: Inexperienced Bay Packers (+360); San Francisco 49ers (-450)
Complete: 50.5; Opened: 50.5
FPI favourite: 49ers by 11.2 (78.6% to win outright)

Clay’s Projected Rating: 49ers 29, Packers 25

• Tucker Kraft over 2.5 receptions (-125) and Luke Musgrave below 2.5 receptions (-170): I am combining the 2 Packers tight ends, as Kraft’s line ought to be larger and Musgrave’s decrease. Final week towards the Cowboys, Kraft performed on 43 (84%) of the staff’s 51 offensive snaps and tied for the staff lead by operating 15 out of a potential 21 move routes. Musgrave, in the meantime, was restricted to simply 15 snaps (29%) and ran solely six routes. Each tight ends had been focused thrice, however the utilization means that cut up is fluky. Kraft stepped right into a full-time position when Musgrave went down with an damage in Week 11 and has sustained mentioned position even as soon as Musgrave returned in Week 18. Kraft had no less than three receptions in six consecutive video games earlier than catching solely two in final week’s low-volume win. Musgrave, in the meantime, has caught no less than three passes in seven out of 12 video games, though, as famous, his taking part in time has dipped from 71% pre-injury to simply 21% since his return.

• Rashan Gary below 0.5 sacks (-200): This one could be very shut on worth (I would not go a lot decrease than -200), however I am on board with it, as Gary has gone and not using a sack in 12 out of 18 video games, together with six in a row. In six of the exceptions, he had a half-sack, which might have generated a push. Gary has performed on 63% of Inexperienced Bay’s defensive snaps because the staff’s Week 6 bye and hasn’t completed any recreation above 72%. In the course of the common season, he ranked twenty fourth amongst edge rushers in sacks (9.0) however 58th in pass-rush wins (24). Brock Purdy took solely 28 sacks (1.8 per recreation) throughout the common season.

• Dontayvion Wicks below 3.5 receptions (-200): The vig is getting ugly on this one and the first line has moved to 2.5, however I will depart it right here in case you possibly can land the three.5. Wicks performed on 56% of the Packers’ offensive snaps and was restricted to solely two targets within the wild-card victory over the Cowboys. Granted, Inexperienced Bay known as solely 21 passes within the convincing win, however Wicks has substantial competitors for targets with Romeo Doubs, Jayden Reed, Christian Watson (who was restricted in his return from a hamstring damage final week) and Bo Melton all concerned at wideout (to not point out Kraft, Musgrave and Aaron Jones). In complete, Wicks reached 4 receptions in simply 4 out of 16 video games. Watson was out for 3 of these 4 video games, and Reed was restricted to his second-lowest snap share of the season within the different (a 20-3 win over the Rams in Week 9). With everybody wholesome this week, Wicks’ snap complete figures to take successful, making him an extended shot to achieve 4 catches.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Detroit Lions -6.5
Ford Discipline, Detroit
Sunday 3 p.m. ET

Cash Line: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+250); Detroit Lions (-300)
Complete: 48.5; Opened: 48.5
FPI favourite: Lions by 4.5 (62.5% to win outright)

Clay’s Projected Rating: Lions 27, Buccaneers 23

• Baker Mayfield over 1.5 TD passes (-105): Mayfield tossed three TD passes towards the Eagles final week and has no less than two passing scores in 11 out of 18 video games. That features 5 of his previous six outings and 7 of his 9 highway video games for the season. Mayfield was inexplicably held and not using a passing rating in Tampa Bay’s 20-6 loss to Detroit in Week 6, however that was probably a fluke contemplating the Lions allowed 28 TD passes throughout the common season (sixth most). Together with final week’s win, Detroit has surrendered no less than two passing scores in 10 out of 18 video games, together with 4 straight. That is a straightforward one to get behind round even cash.

Kansas Metropolis Chiefs @ Buffalo Payments -2.5
Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park, New York
Sunday 6:30 p.m. ET

Cash Line: Kansas Metropolis Chiefs (+130); Buffalo Payments (-150)
Complete: 45.5; Opened: 45.5
FPI favourite: Payments by 2.3 (56.6% to win outright)

Clay’s Projected Rating: Payments 25, Chiefs 21

• Patrick Mahomes over 36.5 passing makes an attempt (-110): It is a recreation script/scheme/matchup play because the Chiefs are 3.0-point highway underdogs and function the league’s game-script adjusted, pass-heaviest offense. Mahomes has tried no less than 38 passes in his previous 5 video games towards Buffalo and is averaging 43.8 per recreation throughout the span. That features 38 and 44 makes an attempt in two earlier playoff video games and 43 makes an attempt when these groups met in Week 14. In complete, Mahomes has averaged 37.5 passing makes an attempt per recreation this season. That quantity jumps to 40.0 per recreation in Kansas Metropolis’s six losses (38-plus in 5 of these six).

• Harrison Butker below 2.5 XP made (-125): To transform further factors, it’s worthwhile to try them within the first place — and to try them, you want your staff to attain touchdowns. Excluding a Week 18 recreation by which the starters rested, the Kansas Metropolis offense has scored no less than three touchdowns solely 5 occasions this season. The Buffalo protection, in the meantime has allowed greater than two scores in simply 5 video games, together with zero occasions within the six video games because the staff’s Week 13 bye. The Chiefs very hardly ever go for 2-point conversions, which helps Butker’s trigger, however that is typically game-script associated, and so they very properly might have to take action this week as they’re underdogs for the primary time since Tremendous Bowl LVII.

• Josh Allen over 0.5 INTs (-105): The present that retains on giving, Allen has thrown no less than one interception in 12 of his previous 14 video games. He averted getting picked off towards the Steelers final week, however the one different time he has gone with out one since Week 5 was the Week 15 victory over Dallas by which he tried solely 15 passes. The Chiefs have not had many interceptions this season, however Allen served one up of their Week 14 matchup, and so they did decide off Tua Tagovailoa in final week’s wild-card win.