Australian Open 2024 – Rating the match’s prime gamers

The 2024 Australian Open is upon us. It is not going to function Rafael Nadal, as we hoped it would, however there’s greater than sufficient to trace over the approaching fortnight.

It provides us the primary episode of the brand new season of “Novak Djokovic Is Right here Till Somebody Knocks Him Off His Perch,” after the 36-year-old gained the twenty second, twenty third and twenty fourth Grand Slam titles of his profession in 2023.

It presents Coco Gauff an encore try after she rolled to her first Slam title on the 2023 US Open. It brings us new mom Naomi Osaka’s first Slam match in 16 months. (One other Slam-winning mother, Angelique Kerber, returns after an analogous break.)

It additionally resumes the burgeoning rivalry between Iga Swiatek and Aryna Sabalenka, who traded the WTA No. 1 rating forwards and backwards in 2023. It presents a brand new chapter for Carlos Alcaraz, who’s searching for his third Slam title earlier than his twenty first birthday, and a brand new breakthrough alternative for Jannik Sinner, who’s searching for his first at 22.

It resumes the story of American Ben Shelton, the 21-year-old former Florida Gator, who loved an up-and-down first full 12 months on the tour however ended it with a US Open semifinal look and his first profession ATP title in October.

There’s rather a lot to observe. Listed below are 20 gamers that might make significantly giant splashes over two beautiful weeks in Melbourne.

Tier 1: Favorites

Novak Djokovic
ESPN BET preliminary title odds: -110
Tennis Summary preliminary odds: 34%

He has gained 29 straight Australian Open matches and 35 of his previous 36 in Slams. If you wish to attain additional again, he has gone 66-3 in Slams for the reason that begin of 2021. He maintains almost unimaginable health, and as he has reached his mid-30s, his psychological sport has lapped the sector to some extent that he is nearly develop into higher at this age than he was in his bodily prime. Amongst top-50 gamers, solely Stefanos Tsitsipas (69.9%) has gained the next proportion of service factors than he has (69.6%) over the previous 52 weeks, and solely Carlos Alcaraz (42.0%) has gained the next proportion of return factors (41.2%).

If we wished to nitpick, we might level out that Djokovic has gone simply 6-3 in his previous 9 matches, shedding to Jannik Sinner in each the ATP Finals and the Davis Cup and to newly minted top-10er Alex de Minaur on the United Cup. However he additionally thumped Sinner to win the tour finals, and none of those losses had been in best-of-fives — not together with disqualifications, solely Alcaraz, Nadal and Daniil Medvedev have overwhelmed him in a kind of going again to the 2019 US Open.

Djokovic dropped a set towards dynamic 18-year-old Dino Prizmic in an unimaginable first-round match, lifting his stage in response as he all the time does (however requiring six match factors to complete issues off). We have seen Djokovic play his method into type in Slams, and till he would not achieve this, we’ll assume he’ll once more in Melbourne. He stays the favourite, the gold customary, the GOAT, et cetera. This listing all the time begins with him.

Iga Swiatek
ESPN BET preliminary title odds: +250
Tennis Summary preliminary odds: 35%

The indispensable web site Tennis Summary now shares what it calls the Bakery Report, a take a look at which males women and men have recorded essentially the most 6-0 (bagel) or 6-1 (breadsticks) units during the last 12 months. 9 gamers — 5 ladies and 4 males — have recorded between 20-27 of them. That is rather a lot. However Iga Swiatek leads the best way with 57, greater than double anybody else on both tour. When she finds a bonus towards you, you are toast. Or another baked good.

Swiatek misplaced her No. 1 rating to Aryna Sabalenka for a lot of the autumn earlier than successful in Beijing and Cancun, reclaiming the highest spot and ending 2023 on an 11-match successful streak (which she has since prolonged to 16). She’s the betting favourite on the ladies’s facet, however her odds did shrink after she acquired a completely ridiculous draw. She faces 2020 Australian Open champion Sofia Kenin within the first spherical and will face 2022 finalist Danielle Collins within the second, Elina Svitolina within the fourth and both Wimbledon champion Marketa Vondrousova, two-time Aussie champ Victoria Azarenka or Iga-conqueror Jelena Ostapenko (towards whom she’s 0-4 all time) within the quarters. No. 3 seed Elena Rybakina landed on her half of the draw, too.

Carlos Alcaraz
ESPN BET preliminary title odds: +320
Tennis Summary preliminary odds: 13%

He missed the Australian Open whereas working his method again from harm, however he nonetheless spent a lot of the season buying and selling the No. 1 rating with Djokovic. He ran out of gasoline within the fall, shedding 5 of his final 9 matches of 2023 (together with two on the tour finals), however he nonetheless went 65-12 general — 2-5 towards Djokovic and Jannik Sinner and 63-7 towards everybody else. He elected to forego any tuneup tournaments within the hopes of enjoying his method into type, Djokovic-style, in Melbourne. His sport stays a joyous mixture of violent and optimistic, and so long as his physique holds up, he will have many probabilities at a primary Aussie Open crown. Will that are available in 2024?

Aryna Sabalenka
ESPN BET preliminary title odds: +450
Tennis Summary preliminary odds: 12%

Whereas Swiatek’s odds received worse after the draw, Sabalenka’s improved — the one Slam champion she would possibly play earlier than the semifinals is No. 9 seed Barbora Krejcikova within the quarters.

Sabalenka’s sport formally got here collectively in 2023 — after evolving all the different components of her sport as her serve randomly betrayed her in 2022, she rediscovered consistency in her huge serve final 12 months and spent a few months at No. 1 due to it. She gained the Australian Open, reached the ultimate of the US Open and reached the semis of the opposite two Slams. Even when the US Open was her solely look in a last during the last eight months of the 12 months, her consistency in an period of deeper and deeper ladies’s match fields was staggering. She’s all the time there, and onerous courts are her greatest floor. She additional proved her personal baking credentials with a 6-0, 6-1 blowout of qualifier Ella Seidel within the first spherical.

Jannik Sinner
ESPN BET preliminary title odds: +600
Tennis Summary preliminary odds: 31%

Contemplating he has solely reached one Slam semifinal in his profession, contemplating he solely made it previous the fourth spherical in one among 4 final 12 months, and contemplating his prolonged listing of nagging accidents and health points via the years, it may be too aggressive to place Sinner on this Favorites tier. His résumé just about screams “Tier 2” at this second. However let’s get aggressive. If anybody is able to making the Tier 1 leap this 12 months, it is the 22-year-old who certainly beat Djokovic twice late in 2023 and has taken 4 of his previous six towards Alcaraz. Mastering best-of-fives is mainly the final hurdle he has to clear, and he is nonetheless younger sufficient to clear it.

Coco Gauff
ESPN BET preliminary title odds: +700
Tennis Summary preliminary odds: 19%

The betting odds actually paint Gauff as a Tier 2 contender as nicely, however there’s nothing second-tier about what Gauff has completed over the previous six months. She gained 24 of 26 matches at one level in the summertime and fall, she beat Sabalenka to take the US Open in September, she has misplaced solely to Swiatek (whom she additionally beat for the primary time in Cincinnati) and Jessica Pegula since Wimbledon, and he or she gained her tuneup match in Auckland as nicely. She could possibly be a Tier 1 contender, or very near it, in each Slam she enters for the following decade.

Tier 2: Main hopefuls

Elena Rybakina
ESPN BET preliminary title odds: +550
Tennis Summary preliminary odds: 8%

Rybakina has advanced into probably the most upset-proof gamers within the sport. Over the past 12 months she’s gone 20-11 towards top-25 gamers (good in its personal proper) and 32-3 towards everybody else, and a kind of losses got here through harm retirement. She misplaced in three units to Sabalenka within the Australian Open last final 12 months, and he or she blew out Sabalenka 6-0, 6-3 in Brisbane in early January.

Daniil Medvedev
ESPN BET preliminary title odds: +800
Tennis Summary preliminary odds: 10%

The 27-year-old from Russia is likely one of the solely lively gamers to have overwhelmed Djokovic in a best-of-five, and as his US Open last run — which featured a fairly simple win over Alcaraz within the semis — reminds us, he is a serious menace in any hard-court Slam he enters. Three fall losses to Sinner felt like a little bit of a hierarchy shift, however his “human backboard with an enormous serve” combo stays impenetrable for many.

Jessica Pegula
ESPN BET preliminary title odds: +2000
Tennis Summary preliminary odds: 8%

She has reached the quarterfinals of 5 of her previous eight Slams, and he or she has been within the WTA prime 5 for the previous 15 months. We’re nonetheless ready for prime Pegula to indicate up in 2024 — she has performed 4 matches, three went to a few units, and he or she was upset by Katie Boulter within the United Cup — however her three appearances in finals within the fall (Tokyo, Seoul, Cancun) aren’t that far within the rearview. Touchdown in the identical quarter as Rybakina and the fast-rising Zheng Qinwen didn’t do her any favors right here.

Others: Holger Rune (No. 8 seed, three-time Slam quarterfinalist), Casper Ruud (No. 11 seed, three-time Slam finalist)

Tier 3: Good begin to 2024

Alexander Zverev
ESPN BET preliminary title odds: +2800
Tennis Summary preliminary odds: 3%

The 2020 US Open finalist slowly rounded into type final 12 months, following his grotesque 2022 ankle harm, and he enters the Australian Open having gained 4 of his previous 5 matches towards top-10 opponents.

Grigor Dimitrov
ESPN BET preliminary title odds:+3300
Tennis Summary preliminary odds: 2%

Now 32, Dimitrov hasn’t reached a Slam semifinal for the reason that 2019 US Open, however he is in his greatest type in ages. He is 15-3 since October, and he gained 10 straight units (together with two towards Holger Rune) to win the Brisbane tuneup.

Andrey Rublev
ESPN BET preliminary title odds: +4000
Tennis Summary preliminary odds: 2%

The 26-year-old Rublev has mainly been the Pegula of the lads’s tour of late, having reached the quarterfinals in 5 of his previous six Slams and eight of 13. An additional breakthrough stays elusive — and his first-round efficiency towards Thiago Seyboth Wild, which required a win in a fifth-set tiebreaker after Rublev blew a two-set lead, was uninspiring — however he is solely now working via his prime athletic years.

Mirra Andreeva
ESPN BET preliminary title odds: +2500
Tennis Summary preliminary odds: 0.2%

The sportsbooks are most likely being a bit aggressive right here — she’s tied for the seventh-best odds — however the 16-year-old went 39-10 in 2023, entered the highest 50 in October and has gone 5-5 all-time towards top-20 opponents. She’s going to make a Slam run sooner or later.

Alex de Minaur
ESPN BET preliminary title odds: +3300
Tennis Summary preliminary odds: 0.6%

The 24-year-old Aussie has gone 8-9 towards top-10 opponents over the previous 12 months and beat Djokovic within the United Cup; his upside is evident, and a run of extra constant outcomes allowed him to enter the ATP prime 10 for the primary time this month.

Others: Jelena Ostapenko (6-1 in 2024, Adelaide finalist), Maria Sakkari (3-0 in 2024 after a strong fall), Jack Draper and Jiri Lehecka (Adelaide finalists), Elise Mertens and Emma Navarro (Hobart finalists), Linda Noskova (Brisbane semifinalist)

Tier 4: Solely want a number of breaks

Zheng Qinwen
ESPN BET preliminary title odds: +2500
Tennis Summary preliminary odds: 3%

After reaching her first Slam quarterfinal on the US Open, the 21-year-old from China reached two tour finals final fall, beating Ostapenko and Sakkari amongst others. She entered this 12 months within the prime 15, and he or she has the sport to remain there some time.

Ons Jabeur
ESPN BET preliminary title odds: +2500
Tennis Summary preliminary odds: 2%

Due partly to accidents, Jabeur’s type was all around the map in 2023. However she has nonetheless made the ultimate of three of her previous six Slams, and he or she has mastered the artwork of constructing momentum over the course of a fortnight. If she will get previous Andreeva within the second spherical, she might go a great distance.

Ben Shelton
ESPN BET preliminary title odds: +5000
Tennis Summary preliminary odds: 0.1%

Over the previous 12 months, the 21-year-old has gone 18-22 in best-of-three matches … and 10-4 in best-of-fives, together with 9-2 within the two hard-court Slams. Constructing consistency is the objective for 2024, however it would not be shocking if Melbourne once more introduced out his greatest.

Others: Stefanos Tsitsipas (No. 7 seed, 2023 Australian Open finalist, battling again harm), Marketa Vondrousova (No. 7 seed, 2023 Wimbledon champ), Barbora Krejcikova (No. 9 seed, two finals within the fall), Hubert Hurkacz (No. 9 seed, two finals within the fall), Beatriz Haddad Maia (No. 10 seed, 2023 French Open semifinalist), Taylor Fritz (No. 12 seed, 36-13 on onerous courts within the final 12 months), Daria Kasatkina (No. 14 seed), Karen Khachanov (No. 15 seed, 2023 Aussie Open semifinalist), Veronika Kudermetova (No. 15 seed, 2021 Wimbledon finalist), Caroline Garcia (No. 16 seed, 2022 US Open semifinalist), Frances Tiafoe (No. 17 seed, 2022 US Open semifinalist), Nicolas Jarry (No. 18 seed, three top-10 wins since Might), Elina Svitolina (No. 19 seed, three-time Slam semifinalist), Ugo Humbert (No. 21 seed, 16-5 for the reason that US Open), Leylah Fernandez (No. 32 seed, 16-4 since September)

Tier 5: Melbourne’s been good to them

Naomi Osaka
ESPN BET preliminary title odds: +2500
Tennis Summary preliminary odds: 0.0%

The four-time Slam champion returned to the tour earlier in January, successful one match and going three units with Karolina Pliskova in Brisbane. It is most likely a bit a lot to ask her to make an enormous run in her first Slam again — particularly after drawing Caroline Garcia within the first spherical — however … rattling, can she nonetheless strike a tennis ball.

Victoria Azarenka
ESPN BET preliminary title odds: +5000
Tennis Summary preliminary odds: 0.3%

The 2-time Aussie champion is 3-1 in 2024, having overwhelmed Ostapenko and misplaced to Sabalenka in Brisbane. Her sport is rising extra one-dimensional (her maintain percentages are going up, her break percentages down), however at 34, she nonetheless trades blows with nearly anybody.

Andy Murray
ESPN BET preliminary title odds: x
Tennis Summary preliminary odds: 0.0%

The 36-year-old made the Australian Open last 5 occasions between 2010 and 2016 however by no means took dwelling the title. He most likely will not in 2024 both — even when he will get rolling, Djokovic doubtless awaits within the third spherical — however it has been enjoyable watching him proceed to grind at a top-50 stage with a resurfaced hip.

Others: Sofia Kenin (2020 champion), Caroline Wozniacki (2018 champion), Angelique Kerber (2016 champion), Stan Wawrinka (2014 champion), Danielle Collins (2022 finalist), Dominic Thiem (2020 finalist), Tommy Paul (2023 semifinalist), Donna Vekic (2023 quarterfinalist), Sebastian Korda (2023 quarterfinalist), Aslan Karatsev (2021 semifinalist), Karolina Pliskova (2019 semifinalist), Marin ili (2018 finalist), Elise Mertens (2018 semifinalist)