Caitlin Clark midseason: What WNBA rookie stats say to date

Caitlin Clark made historical past Thursday, blowing away the earlier document for quickest WNBA participant to document 300 profession factors, 100 rebounds and 100 assists by doing so in her nineteenth recreation. No participant had ever achieved it ahead of 22 video games, per ESPN Stats & Info, and if we take a look at solely rookies immediately out of school, New York Liberty guard Sabrina Ionescu held the earlier document, at 27 video games.

Regardless of the No. 1 draft choose’s record-setting versatility, Clark and the Indiana Fever — who confronted a brutal schedule to start her professional profession — have had an uneven begin. Simply two of Indiana’s first 11 video games this season got here towards groups with data of .500 or worse, whereas these 11 video games had been two greater than some other WNBA workforce to that time. It is no shock the Fever began 2-9, whereas Clark had a season-low three factors within the final recreation of that stretch.

Since Indiana’s schedule has evened out, each by way of opponent high quality and permitting the workforce extra follow time to construct round Clark’s one-of-a-kind ability set, the Fever have gained 4 consecutive video games for the primary time since 2015. Eight of the WNBA’s 12 groups advance to the postseason, and Indiana (8-12) would make the playoffs if the 40-game common season ended in the present day. Clark’s efficiency has additionally predictably picked up: She’s averaging 16.8 factors, 7.6 assists and 6.3 rebounds over her previous 9 video games.

As she begins the second half of her rookie season Tuesday towards the Las Vegas Aces (9:30 p.m. ET, ESPN), let’s take a better take a look at what the numbers say about how Clark and Indiana are figuring issues out and the place she may have the ability to proceed bettering the remainder of this season and past.

Decide-and-roll recreation approaching

Clark’s capacity to generate environment friendly offense by frequent pick-and-rolls is extra necessary to her improvement as a WNBA participant than the rest. That is already the case midway by her rookie season.

Based on Second Spectrum evaluation of camera-tracking knowledge, Indiana has averaged 0.97 factors per direct pick-and-roll when both Clark or the display screen setter shoots, goes to the free throw line or turns over the ball, or a Clark cross units up a right away shot by one other teammate. That ranks second amongst gamers who’ve acquired at the very least 200 ball screens, trailing Jackie Younger of Las Vegas.

Early on, defenses responded by trapping Clark with each defenders extra usually than some other participant within the league. Per Second Spectrum, defenses have blitzed 89 ball screens, twice as many because the next-highest participant, Ionescu with 46. Clark’s passing capacity has typically produced good photographs in these conditions. The Fever have averaged 1.05 factors per direct pick-and-roll towards blitzes, higher than their general common.

Consequently, we have seen fewer traps because the season has progressed. Over Indiana’s first 11 video games, opponents blitzed 21% of Clark’s ball screens, in keeping with Second Spectrum evaluation. Throughout the previous 9 video games, that has dropped by greater than half to 10%.

With extra follow time, the Fever have discovered higher options for trapping defenses, leveraging double-teams on Clark to create open photographs for teammates. And extra necessary to Indiana’s long-term outlook, she and 2023 WNBA Rookie of the Yr Aliyah Boston have began to develop higher chemistry as pick-and-roll companions.

Though pick-and-roll basketball has all the time been a staple for Clark, that is not the case for Boston, who was primarily a submit scorer in faculty at South Carolina. When she was drafted, Synergy Sports activities monitoring confirmed Boston had tried simply 9 photographs her whole senior season after screening in pick-and-roll. As a WNBA rookie, Boston tried practically 3 times as many photographs out of post-ups as pick-and-rolls, per Synergy monitoring. She has elevated these makes an attempt as a screener greater than 40% on a per-game foundation this season, slowly creating chemistry with Clark.

Over the season’s first 13 video games, Clark assisted Boston a median of 1.3 instances per recreation. Since then, that has greater than tripled to 4.0 per recreation.

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Caitlin Clark finishes a rebound shy of triple-double

Caitlin Clark practically turns into the primary rookie in WNBA historical past with a triple-double, ending with 15 factors, 9 rebounds and 12 assists because the Fever outlast the Mercury.

Leveraging taking pictures menace

Greater than some other ability, Clark is related along with her taking pictures vary, so it was a bit stunning to see her make simply 30% of 3-pointers over the primary 11 video games, a span that concluded with Clark going 1-of-7 from 3 and 1-of-10 general in a 36-point loss June 2 at New York.

Beginning with a career-high seven 3-pointers on June 7 at Washington, Clark has been on fireplace from past the arc, averaging 3.2 per recreation at a 41% clip. Simply two gamers have averaged at the very least three 3s per recreation over the complete season: Arike Ogunbowale (3.3) and Kayla McBride (3.1).

The recent streak has coincided with the Fever making a extra concerted effort to get Clark off the ball, one thing that was additionally instrumental within the improvement of Ionescu and Aces guard Kelsey Plum after gradual begins to their WNBA careers as high-scoring guards picked No. 1 general.

Over the season’s first 11 video games, 32% of Clark’s 3-point makes an attempt had been catch-and-shoot alternatives, per Second Spectrum. That has jumped to 45% since, with Clark hitting a scorching 50% of catch-and-shoot makes an attempt over the previous 9 video games. No surprise Indiana coach Christie Sides stated final week that Clark wanted to get much more photographs up.

“Caitlin Clark must shoot a minimal of 15 photographs a recreation for us,” Sides advised reporters after final Thursday’s loss to the Seattle Storm, when Clark had 9 shot makes an attempt. “She’s obtained to get photographs, and we have got to do a greater job of setting her up, setting some actually good screens for her to get her open.”

However the numbers do not again that up. Clark’s seven 3-pointer-game towards the Mystics was the Fever’s solely win when she has tried at the very least 15 photographs, and it was additionally the one time she reached that mark (trying exactly 15) within the month of June.

Indiana’s offense wants Clark extra concerned than she was towards the Storm, however having her balancing playmaking and shot makes an attempt is the place the Fever have been at their greatest.

General, Indiana’s offense was robust within the month of June. After dropping to eleventh in offensive ranking through the 2-9 begin, forward of solely the then-winless Washington Mystics, the Fever have been the WNBA’s third-most environment friendly offense since. New York and Las Vegas, final 12 months’s WNBA Finals groups, are the 2 squads averaging extra factors per possession since June 3.

Indiana has achieved that regardless of Clark persevering with to battle with turnovers (she has 112; the next-closest participant, Alyssa Thomas, has 72), one other case the place her manufacturing is historic. As Richard Cohen of HerHoopStats.com famous final week, Clark dedicated extra turnovers in her first 18 video games than any WNBA participant ever has in any 20-game stretch of their profession.

That is partially a product of how a lot Clark has the ball in her arms. She has taken over a thousand extra dribbles than some other participant, in keeping with Second Spectrum monitoring, and Indiana’s workforce turnover price is definitely barely down from final season. Nonetheless, that is one spot I anticipated extra enchancment from Clark over the course of the 12 months than we have seen to date.

Fever in playoff competition

Making the playoffs for the primary time since 2016 was an affordable objective for the Fever this season after drafting Clark to workforce up with Boston. The Storm made it in 2016 after including back-to-back No. 1 picks in Jewell Loyd and then-rookie Breanna Stewart, whereas Las Vegas completed one recreation out of a playoff spot in A’ja Wilson’s rookie 12 months when she joined Plum as consecutive high picks.

If the season ended in the present day, Indiana can be simply on the proper facet of the playoff line, main the Chicago Sky by a half-game for the eighth and last spot. The Fever are additionally inside a half-game of the 7-10 Atlanta Dream.

The dangerous information is the Sky (minus-2.0) and Dream (minus-4.6) have been much more aggressive this season by way of level differential, usually a greater predictor of future document than precise successful proportion. Indiana’s minus-6.6 mark ranks tenth within the WNBA.

On the plus facet, a lot of these lopsided Fever blowouts got here towards the early troublesome slate of opponents. Indiana is 0-10 with an unimaginable minus-17.3 level differential towards above-.500 groups however has taken care of enterprise towards opponents at .500 or worse. The Fever are 8-2 towards below-average groups.

It is troublesome to inform how a lot of that cut up is Indiana getting an opportunity to follow in June. The Fever higher hope it displays inner enchancment, as a result of opponent high quality has largely evened out now. Indiana will play 11 video games towards groups .500 or higher within the second half of the season, the identical as the primary half. The Fever do have fewer matchups with the Connecticut Solar and New York the remainder of the way in which, however three of their 4 conferences with the two-time defending champion Aces stay, together with Tuesday.

The excellent news is extra of these video games will probably be at Gainbridge Fieldhouse. Solely the Dallas Wings have performed fewer house video games than Indiana, which is able to play 12 of the ultimate 19 video games at house, together with a six-game homestand late within the common season. Due to that cut up, ESPN’s WNBA Basketball Energy Index exhibits the Fever making the playoffs in 65% of simulations of the remaining schedule.

If Indiana returns to the postseason with Clark and Boston taking part in on the degree they’ve reached in June, it will likely be laborious to treat Clark’s rookie season as something however successful.