Caitlin Clark midseason: What WNBA rookie stats say to this point

Caitlin Clark made historical past Thursday, blowing away the earlier report for quickest WNBA participant to report 300 profession factors, 100 rebounds and 100 steals by doing so in her nineteenth recreation. No participant had ever achieved it prior to 22 video games, per ESPN Stats & Data, and if we have a look at solely rookies instantly out of school, New York Liberty guard Sabrina Ionescu held the earlier report, at 27 video games.

Regardless of the No. 1 draft decide’s record-setting versatility, Clark and the Indiana Fever — who confronted a brutal schedule to start her professional profession — have had an uneven begin. Simply two of Indiana’s first 11 video games this season got here towards groups with information of .500 or worse, whereas these 11 video games have been two greater than every other WNBA group to that time. It is no shock the Fever began 2-9, whereas Clark had a season-low three factors within the final recreation of that stretch.

Since Indiana’s schedule has evened out, each when it comes to opponent high quality and permitting the group extra apply time to construct round Clark’s one-of-a-kind ability set, the Fever have gained 4 consecutive video games for the primary time since 2015. Eight of the WNBA’s 12 groups advance to the postseason, and Indiana (8-12) would make the playoffs if the 40-game common season ended at present. Clark’s efficiency has additionally predictably picked up: She’s averaging 16.8 factors, 7.6 assists and 6.3 rebounds over her previous 9 video games.

As she begins the second half of her rookie season Tuesday towards the Las Vegas Aces (9:30 p.m. ET, ESPN), let’s take a more in-depth have a look at what the numbers say about how Clark and Indiana are figuring issues out and the place she would possibly have the ability to proceed bettering the remainder of this 12 months and past.

Decide-and-roll recreation approaching

Clark’s capability to generate environment friendly offense by way of frequent pick-and-rolls is extra essential to her growth as a WNBA participant than the rest. That is already the case midway by way of her rookie season.

In response to Second Spectrum evaluation of camera-tracking knowledge, Indiana has averaged 0.97 factors per direct pick-and-roll when both Clark or the display screen setter shoots, goes to the free throw line or turns over the ball, or a Clark go units up an instantaneous shot by one other teammate. That ranks second amongst gamers who’ve acquired at the least 200 ball screens, trailing Jackie Younger of Las Vegas.

Early on, defenses responded by trapping Clark with each defenders extra typically than every other participant within the league. Per Second Spectrum, defenses have blitzed 89 ball screens, twice as many because the next-highest participant, Ionescu with 46. Clark’s passing capability has usually produced good pictures in these conditions. The Fever have averaged 1.05 factors per direct pick-and-roll towards blitzes, higher than their total common.

Because of this, we have seen fewer traps because the season has progressed. Over Indiana’s first 11 video games, opponents blitzed 21% of Clark’s ball screens, in line with Second Spectrum evaluation. In the course of the previous 9 video games, that has dropped by greater than half to 10%.

With extra apply time, the Fever have discovered higher options for trapping defenses, leveraging double-teams on Clark to create open pictures for teammates. And extra essential to Indiana’s long-term outlook, she and 2023 WNBA Rookie of the Yr Aliyah Boston have began to develop higher chemistry as pick-and-roll companions.

Though pick-and-roll basketball has all the time been a staple for Clark, that is not the case for Boston, who was primarily a put up scorer in school at South Carolina. When she was drafted, Synergy Sports activities monitoring confirmed Boston had tried simply 9 pictures her total senior season after screening in pick-and-roll. As a WNBA rookie, Boston tried practically 3 times as many pictures out of post-ups as pick-and-rolls, per Synergy monitoring. She has elevated these makes an attempt as a screener greater than 40% on a per-game foundation this season, slowly creating chemistry with Clark.

Over the season’s first 13 video games, Clark assisted Boston a median of 1.3 occasions per recreation. Since then, that has greater than tripled to 4.0 per recreation.

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Caitlin Clark finishes a rebound shy of triple-double

Caitlin Clark practically turns into the primary rookie in WNBA historical past with a triple-double, ending with 15 factors, 9 rebounds and 12 assists because the Fever outlast the Mercury.

Leveraging taking pictures risk

Greater than every other ability, Clark is related along with her taking pictures vary, so it was a bit shocking to see her make simply 30% of 3-pointers over the primary 11 video games, a span that concluded with Clark going 1-of-7 from 3 and 1-of-10 total in a 36-point loss June 2 at New York.

Beginning with a career-high seven 3-pointers on June 7 at Washington, Clark has been on hearth from past the arc, averaging 3.2 per recreation at a 41% clip. Simply two gamers have averaged at the least three 3s per recreation over the complete season: Arike Ogunbowale (3.3) and Kayla McBride (3.1).

The new streak has coincided with the Fever making a extra concerted effort to get Clark off the ball, one thing that was additionally instrumental within the growth of Ionescu and Aces guard Kelsey Plum after gradual begins to their WNBA careers as high-scoring guards picked No. 1 total.

Over the season’s first 11 video games, 32% of Clark’s 3-point makes an attempt have been catch-and-shoot alternatives, per Second Spectrum. That has jumped to 45% since, with Clark hitting a scorching 50% of catch-and-shoot makes an attempt over the previous 9 video games. No marvel Indiana coach Christie Sides stated final week that Clark wanted to get much more pictures up.

“Caitlin Clark must shoot a minimal of 15 pictures a recreation for us,” Sides informed reporters after final Thursday’s loss to the Seattle Storm, when Clark had 9 shot makes an attempt. “She’s acquired to get pictures, and we have got to do a greater job of setting her up, setting some actually good screens for her to get her open.”

However the numbers do not again that up. Clark’s seven 3-pointer-game towards the Mystics was the Fever’s solely win when she has tried at the least 15 pictures, and was additionally the one time she reached that mark (trying exactly 15) within the month of June.

Indiana’s offense wants Clark extra concerned than she was towards the Storm, however having her balancing playmaking and shot makes an attempt is the place the Fever have been at their greatest.

Total, Indiana’s offense was sturdy within the month of June. After dropping to eleventh in offensive ranking through the 2-9 begin, forward of solely the then-winless Washington Mystics, the Fever have been the WNBA’s third-most environment friendly offense since. New York and Las Vegas, final 12 months’s WNBA Finals groups, are the 2 squads averaging extra factors per possession since June 3.

Indiana has completed that regardless of Clark persevering with to wrestle with turnovers (she has 112; the next-closest participant, Alyssa Thomas, has 72), one other case the place her manufacturing is historic. As Richard Cohen of HerHoopStats.com famous final week, Clark dedicated extra turnovers in her first 18 video games than any WNBA participant ever has in any 20-game stretch of their profession.

That is partially a product of how a lot Clark has the ball in her arms. She has taken over a thousand extra dribbles than every other participant, in line with Second Spectrum monitoring, and Indiana’s group turnover charge is definitely barely down from final season. Nonetheless, that is one spot I anticipated extra enchancment from Clark over the course of the 12 months than we have seen to this point.

Fever in playoff competition

Making the playoffs for the primary time since 2016 was an affordable objective for the Fever this season after drafting Clark to group up with Boston. The Storm made it in 2016 after including back-to-back No. 1 picks in Jewell Loyd and then-rookie Breanna Stewart, whereas Las Vegas completed one recreation out of a playoff spot in A’ja Wilson’s rookie 12 months when she joined Plum as consecutive high picks.

If the season ended at present, Indiana could be simply on the best aspect of the playoff line, main the Chicago Sky by a half-game for the eighth and remaining spot. The Fever are additionally inside a half-game of the 7-10 Atlanta Dream.

The unhealthy information is the Sky (minus-2.0) and Dream (minus-4.6) have been much more aggressive this season when it comes to level differential, usually a greater predictor of future report than precise profitable proportion. Indiana’s minus-6.6 mark ranks tenth within the WNBA.

On the plus aspect, lots of these lopsided Fever blowouts got here towards the early troublesome slate of opponents. Indiana is 0-10 with an unbelievable minus-17.3 level differential towards above-.500 groups however has taken care of enterprise towards opponents at .500 or worse. The Fever are 8-2 towards below-average groups.

It is troublesome to inform how a lot of that break up is Indiana getting an opportunity to apply in June. The Fever higher hope it displays inner enchancment, as a result of opponent high quality has largely evened out now. Indiana will play 11 video games towards groups .500 or higher within the second half of the season, the identical as the primary half. The Fever do have fewer matchups with the Connecticut Solar and New York the remainder of the way in which, however three of their 4 conferences with the two-time defending champion Aces stay, together with Tuesday.

The excellent news is extra of these video games might be at Gainbridge Fieldhouse. Solely the Dallas Wings have performed fewer house video games than Indiana, which can play 12 of the previous 19 video games at house, together with a six-game homestand late within the common season. Because of that break up, ESPN’s WNBA Basketball Energy Index reveals the Fever making the playoffs in 65% of simulations of the remaining schedule.

If Indiana returns to the postseason with Clark and Boston enjoying on the stage they’ve reached in June, will probably be exhausting to treat Clark’s rookie season as something however successful.