A gaggle of dying in regionals? Prime seeds in peril? The lads’s school baseball event begins Friday, and there’s certain to be loads of spectacular play and, in fact, drama.
Regardless that regional hosts advance to supers 67% of the time, our consultants are predicting that as a result of there’s a lot parity throughout the game, we will appear some actual upsets — upsets which may probably not qualify as such if you happen to have a look at seeding alone. Of the highest eight nationwide seeds (Tennessee, Kentucky, Texas A&M, North Carolina, Arkansas, Clemson, Georgia, Florida State), solely UGA has received a nationwide title (1990).
Moreover, there are various high prospects taking part in throughout the board and record-breakers, akin to new NCAA dwelling run chief Charlie Condon, within the combine.
So which regionals provide the hardest street to Omaha? And which potential tremendous regional matchups are we crossing our fingers we get? Our consultants break down the 2024 area.
Soar to: Hardest street | Gamers and groups to look at
Underdogs | Potential supers matchups | Daring predictions
Which regional has the hardest street to Omaha?
Chris Burke: Tucson. The depth on this regional is certain to present us some memorable moments. Arizona is the host and has put collectively a regular-season and postseason Pac 12 title, but it surely welcomes three groups that every one current issues. Dallas Baptist is the 2-seed, coming off a 44-win season and taking part in in its tenth straight regional. West Virginia, the 3-seed, has among the finest gamers within the nation in JJ Wetherholt. To spherical it out, Grand Canyon is the 4-seed, and it beat Arizona two out of 3 times this 12 months, together with a 24-8 blowout. This regional goes to be juicy.
Ryan McGee: There are a LOT of stacked regionals, which I believe is a testomony to the parity we see throughout school baseball that we do not see in most sports activities. However my eyes are on Stillwater. Oklahoma State earned that 1-seed and the host spot, however Nebraska at 2, the red-hot Purple Eagles of Niagara at 4 … and Jac Caglianone and Florida as a 3-seed?! It is a bunkhouse stampede.
Mike Rooney: The Tucson Regional presents problem that may make a World Cup “group of dying” blush. Arizona is the nation’s greatest strike-throwing pitching employees. And whereas that is noteworthy, Gregg Wallis’ Grand Canyon is perhaps probably the most harmful 4-seed in all the event. Dallas Baptist has ace Ryan Johnson and a lineup that’s high 15 in slugging proportion. And do not thoughts this West Virginia group on a mission to increase head coach Randy Mazey’s ultimate season. The excellent news is that this regional possible matches up with North Carolina or LSU … oh, wait. #DeepBreath
Kyle Peterson: Arizona was not given any items within the draw. Dallas Baptist has a host-worthy résumé and a real ace, and is at the moment high 20 within the nation in dwelling runs per recreation. West Virginia was 19-11 within the Massive 12 (33-22 general), has a first-round expertise in Wetherholt (who has discovered his stride once more after lacking many of the first half of the season), and as Burke stated, Grand Canyon received the season collection in opposition to Arizona (all midweek video games), so this can be a powerful 4-seed draw.
Kiley McDaniel: The runner-up to the Tucson Regional needs to be the Tallahassee Regional that options Florida State, Stetson UCF and Alabama, and the winner of that group would extra possible than not face Oklahoma or Duke out of the Norman Regional.
What are you most excited to look at this weekend?
Burke: I am going with Caglianone from Florida. One of the best two-way participant within the nation carries a heavy load into the Stillwater Regional. Not solely does the legendary slugger do the heavy lifting on offense, however my guess is he will be requested to pitch early within the regional, too. Florida was the final SEC group to get in, and if it will make some noise, Cags should be taking part in at his peak.
McGee: That is the time of 12 months after we who watch school baseball all spring get to take a seat again and watch the faces of the individuals who watch the video games solely through the tourney and see how they react to their first viewings of sure gamers. I am unable to look ahead to America to look at Georgia’s Charlie Condon play ball.
Rooney: The aforementioned Johnson owns 147 punchouts headed into regionals, good for third within the nation. The junior runs his fastball into the mid-90s, however his wipeout slider is the actual dream crusher for hitters. Johnson’s eccentric quick-pitch supply provides to the leisure worth. Oregon State junior Travis Bazzana broke the Beavers’ dwelling run document with 26 round-trippers in 2024. The Australian second baseman posted an OPS of 1.520, and solely Condon put up a much bigger quantity. Bazzana’s huge recreation matches his huge power.
Peterson: Eighteen of Kiley McDaniel’s 30 high draft prospects for the 2024 MLB draft are taking part in within the postseason … so take your decide. However if you happen to’re on the lookout for gamers who have not had a lot of a nationwide run, Johnson is in truth elite and has a sub 2.00 ERA this season, and Trey Yesavage from East Carolina recorded 10 or extra strikeouts in eight of his 12 begins this season. However decide about any recreation and you can be watching some future Main Leaguers.
McDaniel: I would like to see Yesavage come again from {a partially} collapsed lung and deal in entrance of a rowdy dwelling crowd, possible in opposition to Wake Forest.
What underdogs ought to we be careful for?
Burke: Vanderbilt had a 13-17 common season within the SEC, however you’d by no means know that watching the group in Hoover. The pitching has stabilized behind Bryce Cunningham and JD Thompson, and the offense performed its greatest ball all 12 months behind the management of RJ Austin and Alan Espinal. This group heads to Clemson the place it received back-to-back regionals in 2017 and 2018. Discuss a harmful 2-seed!
McGee: There are those that have criticized Coastal Carolina for the way in which it stumbled by the final third of the season, and rightfully so. It regarded drained, lastly eaten up by the feelings of Gary Gilmore’s final days on the bench and his ongoing expertise with most cancers. But when you understand your school baseball historical past, that type of problem has typically powered superb postseason runs. See: Arizona State making it to Omaha in 1994 whereas head coach Jim Brock was so sick he may barely make the journey, or this 12 months with Birmingham Southern making the Division III MCWS as its college goes out of enterprise.
Rooney: The #QuakeShow is again for an encore. Lest we overlook that Penn began out 2-0 within the 2023 Auburn Regional earlier than Southern Miss overcame the Quakers in the long run. This membership returns slugger Wyatt Henseler (.372-22-55) and aces Cole Zaffiro and Ryan Dromboski. If you happen to’re unsure in regards to the Quake Present’s expertise stage, please observe that 2023 alums Ben Miller and Jackson Appel are at the moment starring at Duke and Texas A&M respectively. These boys can play.
Peterson: Bryant or James Madison are two to look at in Raleigh; it would not shock me if both is taking part in in a regional ultimate.
McDaniel: UCF is a harmful 3-seed, as is Georgia Tech.
Which potential tremendous regional are you hoping to see?
Burke: That is a straightforward one for me. The potential for Chase Burns to pitch at Lindsey Nelson Stadium vs. his former group in No. 1 general Tennessee in supers has the potential to be must-see TV. First, Wake Forest should get by the host, East Carolina, but when it does and Tennessee is ready, it will likely be one of the crucial anticipated matchups in current reminiscence!
McGee: I’m taking a look at a Texas A&M vs. UC-Santa Barbara tremendous regional and all I see is a dwelling, respiration metaphor for all the things that’s occurring in school sports activities proper now. The Aggies, an SEC machine with all the cash on the earth and stuffed NIL coffers vs. a West Coast non-football college with a proud baseball custom. Aggies vs. Gauchos? Let’s go.
Rooney: Arkansas ranks No. 1 nationally with a group ERA of three.65. Ace southpaw Hagen Smith owns a strikeout price of fifty%. In different phrases, heads you strike out, tails you bought fortunate. Virginia’s place participant group is a daunting mix of bodily means and ability. Shortstop Griff O’Ferrall units the Cavs’ aggressive edge, and Virginia ranks second nationally with a ridiculous batting common of .341. One thing has to present right here.
Peterson: Both East Carolina or Wake at Tennessee shall be appointment viewing. East Carolina continues to be making an attempt to get to Omaha for the primary time, and Wake is making an attempt to return with Burns, Nick Kurtz and Seaver King main the way in which.
McDaniel: The potential Tennessee-Wake Forest tremendous regional would have tons of star energy and professional potential, however the Burns revenge recreation makes it further juicy.
What’s your daring prediction for these first units of video games?
Burke: My daring prediction for the regional spherical is that fewer than half the hosts will advance. There may be a lot parity within the recreation and so many regionals during which the 2-seeds are taking part in nice ball that I believe the hosts are going to have their fingers full. Do not be shocked if many 1-seeds get their hearts damaged in their very own buildings this week.
McGee: For the reason that NCAA began awarding nationwide seeds in 1999, there was just one 12 months when fewer than half of the Omaha area was made up of 1-seeds. That was approach again in 2007, when solely three 1-seeds made it to the large present. I say we’ll come near that this 12 months, and it begins this weekend. Once you have a look at non-1s akin to LSU, Wake Forest, Vanderbilt, Dallas Baptist, South Carolina, Florida … that is numerous superpowers with crooked numbers subsequent to their names.
Rooney: Simply half (or fewer) of the No. 1 seeds will advance to tremendous regionals. That is not pessimism by the way in which. This group of 2-seeds is horrifying. The truth is, seven of those groups performed in a brilliant regional simply final 12 months. One in every of them received the nationwide title (LSU), whereas one other (Wake Forest) has two gamers projected to go within the first 10 picks of the MLB draft. In 2023, 9 high seeds superior previous the regional spherical, with simply 5 of them making it to the Males’s School World Collection. It takes solely 5 wins to get to Omaha, but it surely ain’t straightforward.
McDaniel: There’s numerous 2- and 3-seeds that I believe can win regionals. Wake Forest, Duke (scorching after successful the ACC tourney), Mississippi State, Dallas Baptist, LSU, San Diego and Vanderbilt are the 2-seeds I be ok with choosing to maneuver on to the supers.