The primary spherical of the draft Thursday evening was dominated by quarterbacks with six going within the first spherical. That is probably the most in any spherical of the widespread draft period (since 1967).
Whereas Caleb Williams going No. 1 to the Chicago Bears was no shock, there was some suspense about who would go second to the Washington Commanders.
Washington selected LSU’s Jayden Daniels whereas North Carolina’s Drake Maye went third to the New England Patriots.
As soon as the Atlanta Falcons took Michael Penix, Jr. at No. 8, it turned the primary time within the widespread draft period that 4 quarterbacks have been chosen within the first eight general picks.
Latest historical past suggests these QBs won’t be introduced alongside steadily. Of the 23 quarterbacks drafted within the high 5 within the earlier 15 years, 17 of them began in Week 1, based on ESPN Stats & Info. Nineteen of them began no less than 10 video games of their rookie seasons.
Here’s a have a look at the quarterbacks who have been picked within the first spherical, what their rookie projections are and which professional QB is the very best comparability. This file will probably be up to date all through the evening.
Clay’s 2024 projections: 3,388 passing yards, 20 passing TDs, 13 interceptions, 269 speeding yards, 3 speeding TDs.
Intel: Williams’ elite improvisational expertise, arm power and talent to choose defenses other than throughout the pocket set him other than the remainder of the 2024 class. He has the foot velocity to evade pass-rushers in tight areas and the power to interrupt tackles. His capacity to increase performs, modify his arm angle and make correct off-platform throws places nice stress on defenses on every snap. Williams can also be a affected person pocket passer who will get by his progressions given time and area. He presses and tries to make an excessive amount of occur on some performs however has uncommon playmaking instincts; he can get away with some questionable selections. — Steve Muench
Match: Williams’ ability set would enable him to be an incredible slot in any offense, however the Bears’ setup specifically stands out with offensive coordinator Shane Waldron’s love for the deep ball. Waldron will scheme up deep photographs to DJ Moore, and Keenan Allen, Cole Kmet and Gerald Everett are all bodily sufficient to beat man protection on beneath routes for Williams. And if all else fails, Williams will probably be free to make use of his legs within the Chicago system; he scored 27 speeding touchdowns over the previous three seasons. Briefly, the match is great. — Matt Miller
Rookie starter? Sure. Williams has successfully been QB1 in Chicago for the reason that day Justin Fields was traded to Pittsburgh on March 18. The Bears want a quarterback whose play will elevate the gamers round him. The bar is low, however the Bears have by no means had a quarterback throw for 4,000 yards and/or 30 touchdowns in a season. Williams must be anticipated to succeed in these thresholds early in his NFL profession whereas being tasked with placing the Bears on a playoff trajectory. — Courtney Cronin
Matt Miller’s professional comp: Aaron Rodgers
Key stat: He had 16 completions of no less than 20 yards when on the transfer in 2023, probably the most in FBS, and his completion share on passes thrown 20+ yards was 53%, the third-best in FBS.
Clay’s 2024 projections: 3,447 passing yards, 15 passing touchdowns, 14 interceptions, 578 speeding yards, 5 speeding TDs
Intel: He will get the ball out rapidly when he likes the pre-snap look. He will get by his progressions given time and flashes nice anticipation throwing over the center. His completion share has steadily improved over the previous 4 seasons, and he is correct on tape. Daniels additionally extends performs, and he is one of the harmful runners within the class no matter place. He is fast, has good contact stability and exhibits pull-away velocity. — Steve Muench
Match: The Commanders had 21 interceptions final season and traded Sam Howell to Seattle in March, leaving an enormous gap at QB. Daniels has the mobility, accuracy and decision-making to thrive in offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury’s scheme. His capacity outdoors of construction will place much less stress on a Washington offensive line that allowed 65 sacks final season, tied for the second-most within the NFL. And he’ll match effectively with broad receivers Terry McLaurin and Jahan Dotson. — Jordan Reid
Rookie starter? Heck sure. The actual query will probably be whether or not he begins from Day 1 or not, however contemplating Washington shouldn’t be in a must-win yr it could afford to start out a rookie quarterback instantly. The Commanders have a brand new proprietor, basic supervisor and coach and have a long-term plan to show across the group. Washington signed Marcus Mariota as a backup in free company, and basic supervisor Adam Peters mentioned they have been tremendous with letting him begin if a rookie wasn’t prepared. However a part of the attraction for Daniels is that his capacity to flee stress due to his velocity and quickness permits him to make an affect sooner than most rookie quarterbacks. — John Keim
Matt Miller’s professional comp: Lamar Jackson
Key stat: He’s the one participant in FBS historical past with 12,000 profession passing yards and three,000 profession speeding yards.
Clay’s 2024 projections: 3,361 yards, 16 passing touchdowns, 13 interceptions, 330 speeding yards, 2 speeding TDs
Intel: Maye extends performs, locates receivers late, adjusts his arm angle when obligatory and makes spectacular off-platform throws. He is robust and prepared to take successful to make a play, and he routinely makes performs underneath duress. Maye can thread the needle and lead receivers to yards after the catch when his footwork is sound, and he throws with a powerful base from throughout the pocket. He is a menace to scramble for first downs, too, and choose up yards on designed quarterback runs. — Steve Muench
Match: With Mac Jones traded, the Patriots needed to discover a quarterback to construct round. We do not know precisely what Alex Van Pelt’s offense will appear to be in New England, however the best-case state of affairs is that Maye sits behind veteran Jacoby Brissett for no less than a part of the 2024 season and retains growing. Maye’s arm power, pocket toughness, mobility and poise are all glorious traits that may match into any NFL offense, and with deep threats like Kendrick Bourne and Okay.J. Osborn on the roster, his arm expertise will shine in Foxboro Stadium. — Miller
Rookie starter? Not essentially instantly. The Patriots signed veteran Jacoby Brissett to a one-year deal within the offseason to offer management, mentorship, and a “bridge” possibility so any rookie would not be rushed onto the sector. — Mike Reiss
Matt Miller’s professional comp: Justin Herbert
Key stat: His 9,076 whole yards within the final two seasons have been the second-most within the FBS.
Why Michael Penix Jr. is able to show the doubters mistaken
Heisman Trophy runner-up Michael Penix Jr. is able to give all the things he is acquired as he enters the 2024 NFL draft.
Clay’s 2024 projections: 451 passing yards, 4 passing touchdowns, 2 interceptions, 21 speeding yards, 0 speeding TDs (2 begins)
Intel: Penix Jr. is a left-handed quarterback with excellent arm power who led the nation in passing yards per sport every of the previous two seasons. He reads safeties and acknowledges alternatives to assault downfield. He can manipulate the protection together with his eyes. Penix missed important time with accidents earlier in his profession, elevating issues about his long-term sturdiness, however he performed in each sport over the previous two seasons. — Steve Muench
Match: Penix’s arm power and deep-ball accuracy are among the many greatest on this class. With an offense that’s now led by Kirk Cousins, Penix is the succession plan in case Cousins does not return to type after struggling a torn Achilles final season. Penix excelled on passes outdoors of the numbers as he completed with 2,295 yards, however struggled when compelled to maneuver off his spots. Penix will not be compelled to play instantly and enters right into a scenario right here he can sit and be taught. — Jordan Reid
Rookie starter? One would think about Cousins is locked into the beginning quarterback function for the following three years. With that mentioned, Cousins is 35 years previous and is coming off a torn Achilles that ended his 2023 season in Minnesota. Maybe there are issues about his well being, or perhaps the Falcons simply wished a younger quarterback to be taught underneath the veteran for a couple of years, a la Jordan Love in Inexperienced Bay. Nonetheless, Love is 25 years previous now. Penix turns 24 in two weeks. — Marc Raimondi
Matt Miller’s professional comp: Tua Tagovailoa
Key stat: He led FBS with 4,903 passing yards in 2023, and he was second in FBS in 2022 with 4,641 passing yards. He’s the primary participant with 4,500 passing yards in consecutive seasons since Patrick Mahomes in 2015-16 for Texas Tech.
Clay’s 2024 projections: 3,535 passing yards, 19 passing touchdowns, 13 interceptions, 197 speeding yards, 2 speeding TDs (14 begins)
Intel: McCarthy completed his faculty profession with a 27-1 document as a starter. He can throw into tight home windows towards zone appears to be like and full passes towards press-man protection due to his anticipation, accuracy and arm power. He retains his eyes downfield and makes some spectacular throws even when he is aware of he will take an enormous hit. McCarthy additionally extends performs and throws effectively on the run. He has a great really feel for when to scramble, and he is a menace to run for first downs on designed quarterback rushes. — Steve Muench
Match: McCarthy enters a near-perfect scenario. With a wealth of playmakers in Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison and T.J. Hockenson, McCarthy can have success early in his profession. Along with his effectivity on third down (67% completion share) and off play-action (76%), he is a super slot in coach Kevin O’Connell’s offense. Sam Darnold being on the roster additionally means McCarthy will not be compelled to play instantly if Minnesota opts to let him develop somewhat extra. — Jordan Reid
Rookie starter? The Vikings will put him into the very best surroundings for achievement amongst any of the 2024 first-round quarterback class. He’ll sit behind Sam Darnold, no less than initially, whereas coach Kevin O’Connell applies his appreciable quarterback growth expertise. McCarthy can even be in good arms with new quarterbacks coach Josh McCown. And when he does get on the sector, McCarthy could have a terrific array of ability gamers round him, from broad receivers Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison to working again Aaron Jones and tight finish T.J. Hockenson. — Kevin Seifert
Key stat: His 67.6% profession completion share is the very best in Michigan college historical past — with a minimal of 200 makes an attempt — and his 72.3% completion share in 2023 was the sixth-best within the FBS and set a Michigan single-season document.
Clay’s 2024 projections: 3,076 passing yards, 16 passing touchdowns, 15 interceptions, 154 speeding yards, 1 speeding TD (14 begins)
Intel: He developed right into a sound decision-maker over the course of his faculty profession, and he threw simply three interceptions in 2023. He will get the ball out rapidly and is an efficient level guard when he will get a clear pre-snap learn. Nix can get by progressions and discover the open man given time and area. He extends performs, finds receivers late and makes off-platform throws. And Nix is efficient working designed rollouts; he is a menace to scramble for first downs. — Steve Muench
Match: With Jarrett Stidham and newly acquired Zach Wilson as the highest quarterbacks on the Broncos’ roster, Nix enters right into a scenario the place he may discover early snaps. With 61 profession begins throughout his faculty profession — probably the most in FBS historical past — Nix will mesh effectively into coach Sean Payton’s offense. Oregon’s offense was predominantly run-pass possibility and there will probably be an adjustment interval for him as he enters into a troublesome AFC West. — Jordan Reid
Rookie starter? Will probably be intriguing to see what sort of timeline Sean Payton has in thoughts for Nix. In his long term in New Orleans, Payton by no means had a rookie quarterback on the roster chosen larger than the third spherical and by no means had a rookie quarterback who was realistically anticipated to play any time quickly given Drew Brees’ long term behind middle. –– Jeff Legwold
Matt Miller’s professional comp: Dak Prescott
Key stat: Nix broke the NCAA single-season document for completion share (77.4%) and led the FBS in whole touchdowns (45 passing TDs, six speeding TDs) in 2023.