Ladies’s March Insanity 2024: What to anticipate in Iowa-LSU rematch

ALBANY, N.Y. — When the 2024 girls’s NCAA event bracket got here out two weeks in the past, all eyes went to Area 2 in Albany and the potential Elite Eight showdown between the groups that met for the nationwide championship final season.

On Monday (7:15 p.m. ET, ESPN/ESPN App), that blockbuster arrives, as No. 1 seed Iowa faces third-seeded LSU for a visit to the ladies’s Closing 4 in Cleveland. The seeds say one factor, however historical past says one other: LSU gained the nationwide championship recreation 102-85 final April and certain is perceived by many as the favourite on this rematch.

The Hawkeyes have Caitlin Clark, the nationwide participant of the 12 months final season who is anticipated to wash up these honors this 12 months, too. As a senior, she turned the all-time main scorer in Division I males’s or girls’s basketball — she’s at present at 3,859 factors — and drew sellout crowds not simply to Carver-Hawkeye Enviornment however in any respect however two regular-season street video games.

Clark is surrounded largely by different sharpshooting guards, together with Kate Martin and Gabbie Marshall, her teammates the previous 4 years. Iowa leads Division I in scoring, and if the Hawkeyes get sizzling from behind the 3-point line, they’re laborious to cease.

However LSU leads Division I in attending to the foul line and is the highest main convention crew in rebounding, too. The Tigers characteristic double-double menace Angel Reese, final 12 months’s most excellent participant on the Closing 4, together with gifted guards resembling Aneesah Morrow, Flau’jae Johnson and Mikaylah Williams.

The 2023 NCAA ultimate drew nearly 10 million viewers — making it essentially the most watched girls’s basketball recreation in tv historical past — on April 2 final 12 months. On April 1, 2024, the Tigers and Hawkeyes will meet once more. What ought to we count on? Which crew will advance? ESPN’s Andrea Adelson, Katie Barnes and Michael Voepel have a look at this high-voltage matchup.

Reese and Clark are two of the most important stars in faculty basketball. Will Clark’s perimeter recreation or Reese’s paint recreation decide the winner?

Barnes: Maybe essentially the most pleasant a part of this recreation is that Reese and Clark play totally different positions, which opens the choice for them each to dominate. However on this occasion, with the lineups the way in which they’re, Reese can have the final phrase, though Clark will get hers to make certain.

Hannah Stuelke will doubtless get the decision to protect Reese, however she offers up dimension. Stuelke is 6-foot-2 and Reese is 6-3. An inch is not an enormous distinction, however Reese usually has to play larger than she is with a lot much less room to maneuver (look no additional than her matchups with UCLA’s Lauren Betts and South Carolina’s Kamilla Cardoso).

Towards the Hawkeyes, Reese has the dimensions benefit, so she’s going to go to work. Count on her to get her twenty seventh double-double on the season — so long as she stays out of foul bother — and have a dominant efficiency inside.

play

Caitlin Clark’s 29-point double-double fuels Iowa win

Caitlin Clark does all of it with 29 factors, 15 assists and 6 rebounds as Iowa cruises to an Elite Eight berth over Colorado.

Adelson: Until Iowa does one thing drastically in another way than final season, Reese and her publish recreation have the benefit right here. LSU’s physicality on protection actually stifled Iowa final 12 months, and although Clark scored 30 factors of their matchup, she went 9-of-22 and mentioned she wished she had attacked the rim extra. Given the discourse about Reese and Clark that has dominated girls’s basketball over the course of the previous 12 months, one thing tells me Reese goes to play with much more physicality — and can look to get her teammates concerned to get the win, too. The Tigers merely are usually not going to let Clark beat them.

Voepel: Logically, every thing factors to LSU’s power inside — significantly with Reese — being an excessive amount of for Iowa to decelerate. Stuelke might need to play among the finest video games of her life, and Iowa will want a big-body reserve like Addison O’Grady to get some high quality minutes on protection, too.

The factor is, even when Clark outscores her — which she did in final 12 months’s championship recreation, as Reese had 15 factors — Reese’s supporting solid might restrict the remainder of the Hawkeyes sufficient for LSU to win.

Who else might step up for the Hawkeyes and Tigers and influence Monday’s consequence?

Voepel: Flau’jae Johnson has been a star for the Tigers on this event, capturing 60% from the sphere of their three video games and stepping ahead within the huge moments. Johnson has been good all season however appears to have saved her greatest for the postseason. She does so much on the defensive finish, too, to associate with her explosiveness on offense.

Johnson had 10 factors, 7 rebounds and 4 assists as a freshman in final season’s nationwide championship recreation. She has grown as a participant since: She’s a greater passer and is extra versatile on protection. It is the type of enchancment you count on from sophomores, however Johnson was so gifted in her first season, how nicely she is taking part in now actually stands out. She additionally has the swagger and confidence LSU thrives on.

Gabbie Marshall has been Iowa’s high defensive guard the previous few seasons, however she additionally seemed extra assured in her 3-point shot Saturday in opposition to Colorado, making 4 of 5 from lengthy vary.

Clark is without doubt one of the greatest 3-point shooters in faculty historical past; she is six away from tying Oklahoma’s Taylor Robertson — who had 537 in 5 seasons — for many in Division I historical past. However her accuracy has been a bit off in each the Huge Ten and NCAA tournaments, which could imply Clark will attempt to drive to the rim extra in opposition to LSU — one thing she did nicely in opposition to Colorado on Saturday.

Final 12 months, the Tigers made that very laborious for Clark to do. But when one other Hawkeye like Marshall is hitting 3s, it can assist open issues up extra for Clark to assault in numerous methods.

play

LSU rides fourth-quarter run to clinch Elite Eight berth

LSU lights it up within the fourth quarter to place UCLA away and clinch a berth within the Elite Eight.

Adelson: Keep in mind, final 12 months Reese received into early foul bother and it was Jasmine Carson off the bench who ignited the Tigers with a team-high 22 factors after going 5-of-6 from 3. LSU’s bench does not have the kind of depth this 12 months that can get it an X issue. Johnson is the logical alternative after her efficiency in opposition to UCLA. However I am going with Aneesah Morrow. Each pictures and performs ought to open up for her if the Hawkeyes resolve to spend most of their time ensuring Reese or Johnson does not beat them. Morrow has 21 double-doubles on the season and, given her propensity for creating turnovers, she could be a game-changer on this matchup.

Barnes: Kate Martin is the Hawkeyes’ multitool participant much like the function Morrow performs for LSU. She will be able to play inside however is fast sufficient to protect on the perimeter. Martin additionally shoots 38.4% from past the arc. Her 14 factors and 9 boards in opposition to Colorado are the type of contribution Iowa will want on Monday. Plus, she should include Morrow, which might be its personal type of troublesome.

What function will emotion play?

Barnes: Within the locker room following LSU’s win over UCLA on Saturday, Reese was requested which crew she’d favor to see on Monday night time. Her response was Colorado as a result of she needed the chance to avenge the Tigers’ season-opening loss. “After all, we’ll take Iowa as nicely,” she added. She tacked on the response, however this recreation is greater than a rematch of final 12 months’s title recreation. Reese’s and Clark’s lives irrevocably modified the final time they performed one another. They’re each extremely well-known now, with hundreds of thousands of followers on social media.

However the responses to their brash personalities can differ, as seen with the criticisms of Reese following her “you possibly can’t see me” and “ring me” celebrations in final 12 months’s nationwide championship recreation. Reese was referred to as “classless” and an “fool.” Clark, who did an analogous celebration earlier within the event, did not expertise the identical stage of vitriol, which Reese identified instantly.

The racialized responses weigh closely a 12 months later. After which there’s the truth that LSU is the reigning nationwide champion and beat Iowa to say that title. All of that stress will dangle thick within the air on Monday night time. The crew that higher navigates it can go to Cleveland.

Voepel: Clark will get loads of social media vitriol, too, from individuals who say she complains an excessive amount of to officers, or that she pushes off defenders, that she flops to get foul calls or that she will get an excessive amount of media consideration, or … you title it. That is nothing new in sports activities: Clark and Reese each climbed the ladder of fame final season by means of their success, and that has its advantages and its pitfalls. Because the outdated saying goes, opposing followers by no means dislike different groups’ common gamers. They dislike the celebrities, and that is Clark and Reese.

Clark general appeared calmer Saturday in opposition to Colorado than she did within the early rounds, however that may have needed to do with the additional strain on the Hawkeyes to win at residence. Iowa followers journey so nicely, they may make MVP Enviornment right here in Albany really feel so much like Carver-Hawkeye Enviornment, and that can deliver numerous emotion, too.

Adelson: The emotional a part of this recreation is what intrigues me essentially the most. Who can overlook the way in which the nationwide championship recreation ended, with Reese pointing at her ring finger and making the John Cena “You’ll be able to’t see me” hand gesture, waving her hand throughout her face towards Clark? As Katie talked about, the outcry after that second, and the hardened stances about each gamers since then, will all come roaring again Monday night time.

Although Iowa is the upper seed, LSU goes into this recreation because the reigning champion. The Tigers know they’ve crushed the Hawkeyes earlier than. The emotional weight of making an attempt to defeat the crew that beat you for the nationwide championship may be heavier on the Hawkeyes. As Clark mentioned after the win over Colorado, “Anytime you have got an opportunity to go up in opposition to anyone you misplaced to, it brings a little bit extra power.” Mix that with the very fact this might be Clark’s ultimate recreation in her record-setting profession, and feelings will little doubt be excessive.

play

Kate Martin drills the trey

Kate Martin drills the trey

The LSU Tigers will win if …

Adelson: … they play with the kind of physicality that flusters Iowa and forces the Hawkeyes into dangerous pictures.

Barnes: … they’re in a position to dominate the boards and end inside.

Voepel: … they preserve Iowa from scoring within the paint and drive the Hawkeyes away from the fluid ball motion that’s a lot part of their success. Iowa gained a slowed-down defensive slog in opposition to West Virginia within the second spherical, however will not in opposition to LSU.

The Iowa Hawkeyes will win if …

Adelson: … they win the rebounding battle and shoot lights out from 3.

Barnes: … they will restrict LSU’s second-chance factors, coupled with Caitlin Clark doing Caitlin Clark issues.

Voepel: … LSU struggles with capturing, and Iowa is ready to get sufficient rebounds to begin the transition recreation it excels at a lot. Plus, the Hawkeyes should make 3-pointers. Plenty of them.

Which crew will head to the Closing 4?

Adelson: I picked UCLA to come back out of this area as a result of I did not suppose Iowa would make it to the Closing 4. So I am going with LSU as a result of the Tigers’ bodily presence might be an excessive amount of for Iowa to beat.

Barnes: I picked LSU to win this matchup when the bracket got here out, and can persist with the Tigers. Iowa will not have a solution for LSU within the paint, and that would be the distinction.

Voepel: Iowa is not the underdog by seed, however the Hawkeyes nonetheless really feel just like the underdog. Someone wants to select the underdog, proper? So I’ll. It will not simply be on Clark, although. An Iowa win can occur if her teammates play one among their greatest video games collectively, too.