Anderson’s evaluation: Why Manon Fiorot might be Erin Blanchfield’s hardest check but

The ladies’s flyweight division could have a brand new No. 1 contender this weekend. MMA’s finest younger prospect, Erin Blanchfield, will face fellow title contender Manon Fiorot in the primary occasion at UFC Battle Night time on Saturday (10 p.m. ET on ESPN/ESPN+).

Blanchfield, No. 1 on ESPN’s 2023 25 beneath 25 record, might earn a title alternative towards champion Alexa Grasso and develop into the youngest champion in UFC historical past if she will get previous Fiorot. Blanchfield is ESPN’s No. 4-ranked flyweight.

Fiorot, who’s 5-foot-7, typically has a peak and attain benefit over her opponents, and she or he is a wonderful striker nonetheless in search of her first shot at UFC gold. Like Blanchfield, Fiorot can be undefeated contained in the Octagon. Fiorot is No. 3 in ESPN’s flyweight rankings.

Whereas this struggle has monumental implications for the division, the winner could have to attend for his or her title shot, as Grasso is predicted to face Valentina Shevchenko in a trilogy bout after teaching on the upcoming season of “The Final Fighter.”

What makes each fighters particular? What are their potential weaknesses? Let’s check out how this high-stakes struggle may play out.

Do not rule out the underdog

Although Blanchfield (-190 per ESPN BET) has confronted powerful competitors in former strawweight champion Jessica Andrade and former flyweight title challenger Taila Santos, this would be the actual litmus check for her. Blanchfield bulldozed her method via opponents till she confronted Santos final 12 months. Whereas Blanchfield gained that struggle, she needed to work via adversity. And Fiorot is a a lot more durable matchup for Blanchfield.

Fiorot (+160 per ESPN BET) is a southpaw whose vary management and systematic method might resolve this struggle. She’s a sound fighter who at all times is available in with a recreation plan that she sticks to. An enormous a part of that plan is Fiorot’s finest weapon: the jab. If Blanchfield cannot shut down her jab, it may very well be a protracted night time for her.

Together with her quick arms and in-and-out motion, Fiorot throws the jab in quantity whereas nonetheless touchdown at a excessive share. However how she makes use of it makes it so troublesome to regulate to.

And even when opponents keep away from the jab and enter vary to throw their strikes, they have to get previous Fiorot’s kicking vary. Doing so is troublesome as a result of she throws a singular mixture of facet and indirect kicks that opponents should struggle via. After which they should get previous the vary of her punches earlier than closing the space sufficient to grapple or shoot for a takedown. Fiorot’s opponents should account for her bodily power and distinctive takedown protection. Fiorot does nicely avoiding getting caught in open mat takedown makes an attempt. She at all times will get again to the fence after which makes use of that place to assist her defend the takedown.

In the course of the uncommon events that Fiorot has to struggle on the mat, she’s good at leveraging her weight. When taken down, she by no means settles for that backside place.

Fiorot is a protected, technical fighter. She’s well-rounded, with energy in her arms however would not take many dangers. She has sometimes been the aggressor, whereas not placing herself in lots of unhealthy positions.

Whereas she would not have many finishes contained in the Octagon, Fiorot has largely been dominant in every of her bouts, even when taking over top-level opponents. Her previous 4 wins got here towards fighters who’ve held or challenged for a UFC title.

Whereas Fiorot does lots nicely, there are nonetheless some weaknesses in her recreation that an opponent might capitalize on.

One is her head motion. When she throws punches, Fiorot leaves her head on the middle line. She additionally typically seems to lean again when she throws, like she’s making an attempt to keep away from getting hit when she throws strikes.

There’s additionally the query about her submission offense. We have established that she does nicely defensively when a struggle goes to the mat, however realizing that she’s taking over anyone who will look to take the struggle to the bottom. How will Fiorot fare if she must be a menace there?

How can Blanchfield preserve rolling?

Blanchfield has earned all the hype that she has generated. She improves each time we see her within the cage, however we nonetheless have not seen her attain her full potential.

She is well known as a Brazilian jiu-jitsu prodigy, so when her fights hit the bottom, she has but to face a lot adversity. We do not normally see many jiu-jitsu specialists develop a robust hanging recreation, however Blanchfield has, doing so in simply a few years.

Towards Santos, a confirmed high-level striker, Blanchfield was prepared to face and bang along with her. Blanchfield would not draw back from her hanging and is prepared to develop and study. She’s an actual pupil of the sport.

To beat a fighter as expert as Fiorot, Blanchfield should present that she is healthier at combining hanging and grappling. Very like the Santos struggle, it is arduous to think about that Blanchfield will simply get Fiorot to the mat. To seize ahold of Fiorot, she has to aggressively shut vary.

Blanchfield should perceive that she should get hit at occasions, however she mustn’t let that deter her from throwing strikes at a excessive quantity. Generally, she ought to double, even triple up, on the jab to arrange takedowns along with her hanging. She additionally has to make use of feints in order that Fiorot cannot get a beat on when the takedown makes an attempt are coming.

When going through expert wrestlers and grapplers, opponents are sometimes so involved about the specter of a takedown that it opens alternatives for hanging. Blanchfield must capitalize on that.

There may also be openings for leg kicks towards Fiorot. When shifting out and in, Fiorot typically places a variety of weight on her lead (proper) leg. If Blanchfield can time her kicks proper, it might gradual Fiorot’s motion. If Blanchfield can try this, getting the takedowns she’s in search of might be a lot simpler.

We have additionally seen Fiorot take physique kicks that appeared to have an effect on her. She’s a giant fighter for the division, so she could not have the best time slicing weight. Attacking the physique early might put on her down all through the struggle and repay later.

And when Blanchfield will get within the pocket, she has to make it a brawl. Do not enable Fiorot to set the tempo and preserve the struggle fairly. If Blanchfield can power Fiorot to struggle at a tempo that she is uncomfortable with, we have seen Fiorot battle.

How will it play out

It is a powerful struggle to name. Each fighters are gifted, however I believe Fiorot’s hanging would be the distinction on this struggle. It will not be straightforward; Fiorot should aggressively defend takedowns for 25 minutes, however I see her pulling it off to win by determination.

Fiorot is a fighter who prefers being at vary and excels at preserving fights there. I am simply unsure Blanchfield will be capable to shut the vary, and even when she does, I am unsure she’ll be capable to get Fiorot down. Fiorot’s takedown protection is simply that good.