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Myron Medcalf, ESPN Workers Author
Properly, right here we go. The 2024 males’s NCAA match subject has been introduced, and the best three-week stretch in sports activities is ready to start.
How we acquired right here was a journey, too. The bubble collapsed over the weekend because of a handful of surprising convention match runs (see: Oregon, NC State, Duquesne, UAB). The highest groups additionally had their challenges: 1-seeds Purdue and Houston didn’t win their respective convention tournaments, whereas the likes of Arizona, Tennessee and North Carolina additionally fell.
All of this units up what’s going to be a wonderful NCAA match.
Earlier than we get to the primary video games — the First 4 ideas Tuesday, and the primary spherical begins Thursday — we need to give you this information to all 68 groups.
Our aim right here, like with yearly, is to supply info on each program. We aren’t providing you a promise of success as you fill out your brackets.
Nonetheless, for individuals who need to learn about attainable upsets, we have created the “ceiling” system. With every staff, we’ll let you know how far we expect they will go … if the whole lot goes proper.
Simply keep in mind: Lots of issues can go flawed, too. Benefit from the Insanity.
1-seeds
Area: East
Document: 31-3
Match ceiling: Nationwide championship
The final staff to win back-to-back nationwide titles, Florida, achieved it with the identical nucleus of gamers: Joakim Noah, Al Horford and Corey Brewer. Reigning nationwide champion UConn misplaced its key pair final April — Adama Sanogo and Jordan Hawkins — however this 12 months’s group is simply as dominant. The rise of Donovan Clingan (12.5 PPG, 2.3 BPG) in his second season, the maturation of Tristen Newton into a possible All-American and projected first-round draft choose Stephon Citadel are offering the gas Dan Hurley wants for a shot at slicing down the nets once more. With the trio on the ground within the common season, UConn registered 120.5 factors per 100 possessions (for reference, the Boston Celtics, the NBA’s prime offense, generate 121.9 factors per 100 possessions) and held opponents to 87.2 factors per 100 possessions (Houston-like numbers).
Area: South
Document: 30-4
Match ceiling: Nationwide championship
Up to now 4 NCAA tournaments, Kelvin Sampson has led Houston to the Candy 16 (twice), the Elite Eight and the Remaining 4. This 12 months’s Cougars — the Massive 12 regular-season champions — are among the best groups within the nation. So what’s it about this staff that might lastly get Sampson a hoop? Scoring choices. Jamal Shead is a projected All-American and J’Wan Roberts is a key veteran. Former Baylor switch L.J. Cryer (15.3 PPG, 39.0% from past the arc) has added a brand new dynamic to a defensive juggernaut that held 11 opponents to below 50 factors this season, together with Kansas within the Massive 12 season finale. Between Jan. 13 and March 9, Houston misplaced just one recreation, and dedicated turnovers on simply 12.2% of its possessions, per barttorvik.com.
Area: Midwest
Document: 29-4
Match ceiling: Nationwide championship
In 2018, prime seed Virginia fell to 16-seed UMBC within the first spherical of the NCAA match. The next 12 months, the Cavaliers leapt from their No. 30 rating in adjusted offensive effectivity on KenPom to No. 2 and gained the nationwide title. In 2023, prime seed Purdue fell to 16-seed Fairleigh Dickinson within the first spherical of the NCAA match. This 12 months, the Boilermakers boast the perfect offense in America — particularly on the 3-point line (going from 32.2% to 41.0%). Their star, reigning Wood Award winner Zach Edey (24.3 PPG, 11.8 RPG), is healthier too — Synergy Sports activities lists him as a “good” defender in comparison with “common” a 12 months in the past, whereas EvanMiya.com considers him essentially the most “indispensable” participant in America. Points with turnovers stay, however Matt Painter’s squad has the expertise to imitate historical past and win a nationwide title, identical to Virginia.
Area: West
Document: 27-7
Match ceiling: Nationwide championship
Hubert Davis had a wonderful debut as a head coach: North Carolina held a double-digit edge over Kansas at halftime of the 2022 nationwide championship recreation. He then adopted it with a dud of a season, lacking the 2023 postseason altogether. However this season, the Tar Heels have returned to their profitable methods, because of the return of Armando Bacot and the elevation of RJ Davis (21.4 PPG, 40.6% from past the arc), considered one of America’s finest guards. The ACC regular-season champs weathered a late-season slide however ended on a six-game profitable streak, capped by a second win over rival Duke. If Harrison Ingram can get sizzling once more — he is taking pictures 37% from 3 however was 4-for-25 in these ultimate six regular-season video games — Davis and the Tar Heels might end what they began two years in the past.
2-seeds
Area: East
Document: 27-7
Match ceiling: Remaining 4
T.J. Otzelberger would not have a star. For the second-best staff within the Massive 12 (behind Houston), six gamers common a minimum of 8.0 PPG; nobody averages greater than 13.5 PPG. The Cyclones made 32.4% of their 3-point makes an attempt in league play, but it surely’s their elite protection (second in adjusted defensive effectivity on KenPom) that has secured them a excessive seed for Otzelberger’s third NCAA match look in his third 12 months on the job. Keshon Gilbert (13.5 PPG) & Co. have wins over Houston (twice, together with the Massive 12 match championship) and Kansas, too. This group appears able to making a run. The most important query now about this balanced squad is that this: Can it attain its ceiling outdoors Ames? Iowa State completed 4-5 in Massive 12 street video games, versus 9-0 at dwelling at Hilton Coliseum.
Area: South
Document: 25-9
Match ceiling: Remaining 4
Final 12 months, Tyler Kolek suffered a hand damage in 2-seed Marquette’s opening-round win over 15-seed Vermont. He performed the following recreation, in opposition to 7-seed Michigan State, however the Golden Eagles misplaced. This 12 months most likely looks like déjà vu for Shaka Good. As soon as once more, Marquette is a excessive seed and as soon as once more Kolek is coping with an damage that might impression this staff’s progress via the match.
Coming into the Massive East match, Kolek missed the earlier three video games with an indirect damage. Good instructed reporters not too long ago his star participant, who recorded 34 assists in his ultimate three video games earlier than the damage, will “completely” play within the NCAA match. Issues concerning the impression of one other Kolek damage are legitimate. However when he is out there, the Golden Eagles have recorded wins over Illinois, Kansas and Creighton. If wholesome, this staff might finish its season in Phoenix.
Area: Midwest
Document: 24-8
Match ceiling: Nationwide championship
In 2019, Dalton Knecht averaged 13.3 PPG at a junior school in Colorado. He bumped up that quantity when he transferred to Northern Colorado, averaging 20.2 PPG final season. Then he transferred to Tennessee. Some mid-major gamers would fail to duplicate their manufacturing once they switch to an influence convention. Knecht has solely improved. The 6-foot-6 standout is averaging 21.1 PPG and 39.7% from past the arc and is now a projected lottery choose and Wood Award contender. He is given Rick Barnes one thing the Corridor of Fame coach hasn’t had with the Vols: a pure scorer to enrich an elite protection. It is a potent combo that might lead UT to its first nationwide championship. Knecht cannot do all of the work on offense alone, however he is the catalyst Tennessee will need to have to maintain up offensively with any opponent: In regular-season victories over Auburn, Alabama (twice), Kentucky and Illinois — all top-15 in adjusted offensive effectivity — the Vols averaged 90.6 PPG.
Area: West
Document: 25-8
Match ceiling: Nationwide championship
Tommy Lloyd’s squad performs at a top-15 tempo. It linked on 37.4% of its 3-point makes an attempt and 55% of its pictures contained in the arc through the common season. And it might need gained the common season in a subpar Pac-12, however nonconference victories at Duke and over Alabama have proved these Wildcats can compete with anybody. Caleb Love (18.1 PPG) was a star at North Carolina and is a star within the hotter local weather of Tucson, too. He linked on 37.3% of his pictures from past the arc in Pac-12 play and is considered one of 4 gamers averaging double figures for Arizona. His teammates Oumar Ballo, Pelle Larsson and Jaden Bradley kind essentially the most environment friendly three-man lineup in America once they’re on the ground collectively, per EvanMiya.com.
3-seeds
Area: East
Document: 26-8
Match ceiling: Candy 16
It is essential to inform a staff’s full story because the season reaches its ultimate moments. A felony rape cost in December led to Terrence Shannon Jr.’s arrest and indefinite suspension, however the Illinois star subsequently sued the varsity and obtained a brief restraining order that has allowed him to play with out further interruption. On the court docket, he leads a squad with an offensive effectiveness that helped it end second behind Purdue within the Massive Ten. However it’s additionally a staff ranked within the backside of the league in defensive effectivity: The Illini surrendered 97 factors in a win over Minnesota final month and have losses in opposition to Maryland and Penn State.
Area: South
Document: 23-9
Match ceiling: Nationwide championship
That is the staff each opposing coach in America hoped they would not see of their area. Antonio Reeves (20.0 PPG, 44.1% from 3) must be an All-American. In ESPN’s newest NBA mock draft, freshmen Rob Dillingham and Reed Sheppard are top-five picks — who’ve come off the bench for a lot of the season. From their Feb. 10 loss to Gonzaga to the top of the common season — which included beating Auburn and Alabama by 37 factors mixed — the Wildcats linked on 57% of their 2s and 42% of their 3s, per barttorvik.com. Extra compelling nevertheless is that this staff, which has performed sub-100 protection for prolonged stretches of the season, was 53rd in adjusted defensive effectivity in these video games. In different phrases: the Wildcats can play good protection once they determine to play good protection.
Area: Midwest
Document: 23-9
Match ceiling: Nationwide championship
It is a staff stuffed with confidence. Head coach Greg McDermott not too long ago signed a contract extension amid experiences that Ohio State and different colleges had been occupied with luring him away. And, earlier than dropping to Windfall within the first spherical of the Massive East match, the Bluejays completed the season 7-1, handing Dan Hurley one of many worst losses (85-66) of his UConn tenure alongside the way in which. Taking pictures 64.7% from contained in the arc, solely Houston and UConn carried out higher in that span, per barttorvik.com. There’s additionally an argument to be made that Baylor Scheierman (18.4 PPG, 37.2% from past the arc), Ryan Kalkbrenner (17.1 PPG, 7.4 RPG, 3.0 BPG) and Trey Alexander (17.6 PPG, 4.8 APG) are the nation’s prime trio. A Remaining 4 run a 12 months after a heartbreaking, last-second loss to San Diego State within the Elite Eight would vanquish some demons.
Area: West
Document: 23-10
Match ceiling: Elite Eight
In a bigger, more difficult Massive 12, Scott Drew’s squad completed in a tie for third place. Ja’Kobe Walter (14.2 PPG) and Yves Missi (11.1 PPG, 5.8 RPG) are two projected first-round draft picks, and the Bears completed the common season prime 5 within the nation in 3-point taking pictures (40.4%). However in addition they completed 5-4 of their ultimate 9 video games of the common season, because of enjoying a sub-100 protection. The play of RayJ Dennis (13.3 PPG, 6.8 APG) might in the end determine Baylor’s fortunes. The Toledo switch recorded 24 turnovers and linked on simply 3 of 13 makes an attempt from past the arc in Baylor’s final 5 regular-season video games. He is significantly better than that.
4-seeds
Area: East
Document: 27-2
Match ceiling: Elite Eight
The metrics love Bruce Pearl’s staff. Auburn entered the postseason ranked top-10 on KenPom, evanmiya.com and barttorvik.com. It is also top-15 in adjusted offensive effectivity and defensive effectivity after managing to attach on 55% of its pictures contained in the arc whereas holding opponents to a nation’s finest 43.1% mark contained in the 3-point line through the common season. Johni Broome (16.2 PPG, 8.3 RPG, 2.1 RPG) can be considered one of America’s prime gamers.
However the Tigers additionally got here by these metrics enjoying a mediocre nonconference schedule and having fun with a positive SEC schedule that included dealing with Tennessee and Kentucky simply as soon as. (They misplaced each video games.) A February dwelling win over rival Alabama was their solely top-30 KenPom victory within the common season. The NCAA match might be the stage for the Tigers and their undeniably explosive offense to set the report straight.
Area: South
Document: 24-8
Match ceiling: Elite Eight
Jon Scheyer’s second season on the helm ended with a loss at dwelling to North Carolina. The Blue Devils’ NCAA match potential, nevertheless, is obvious. Kyle Filipowski is a Wood Award contender and projected lottery choose. Freshman Jared McCain has performed his method into the primary spherical of NBA mock drafts. Jeremy Roach is the veteran who has led the ACC’s finest offense and prime 3-point taking pictures staff (39% in league play).
Duke struggled at instances in opposition to elite bigs (ACC opponents linked on 50% of their makes an attempt contained in the arc, per KenPom). However a profitable match from Mark Mitchell (12.3 PPG, 6.2 RPG) might gas a run. With Caleb Foster probably sidelined with a decrease leg damage that stored him out of the final 4 regular-season video games, Scheyer will want him to step up.
Area: Midwest
Document: 22-10
Match ceiling: Candy 16
After Kevin McCullar Jr. suffered a bone bruise in his knee in early February, the Jayhawks completed 4-5 of their final 9 video games, their postseason hopes dwindling by the week. That report included falling to Cincinnati by 20 factors within the Massive 12 match opener — proper after the 30-point loss at Houston, throughout which Invoice Self misplaced Hunter Dickinson (dislocated shoulder) and McCullar (once more). The excellent news? Self introduced his star gamers would return in time for the NCAA match. It is unclear if he really believes it, or if that is only a message to the choice committee to grade his staff on the thought will probably be at full energy when it issues. It won’t matter: Dickinson and McCullar additionally performed in a number of video games the Jayhawks misplaced. A wholesome Kansas squad has wins over Kentucky, UConn and Houston. However a short-handed Kansas squad won’t survive the opening spherical.
Area: West
Document: 21-11
Match ceiling: Elite Eight
Watching Alabama on the court docket this season was like watching a drag race with a basketball, with a wreck just some moments from taking place. The Crimson Tide play at a top-15 tempo, and practically half of their pictures are 3-point makes an attempt. They’ve scored 100 factors or extra in 9 video games, they usually spent a portion of the season ranked first in adjusted offensive effectivity. Due to this, generally their stats appear like typos, like these of Mark Sears: 21.1 PPG 44.1% from 3, 86% on free throws — each top-10 marks within the SEC. However the wreck did come. In a late 9-5 stretch within the season, Alabama dedicated turnovers on practically 16% of its possessions, made simply 34% of its 3-point makes an attempt and performed a few of the worst protection amongst Energy 5 groups (163rd in adjusted defensive effectivity, per barrtorvik.com). Nonetheless, when you’re feeling actually fortunate, wager on Alabama to go farther within the race and attain the Remaining 4.
5-seeds
Area: East
Document: 24-10
Match ceiling: Candy 16
A 12 months after making a run to the Remaining 4, SDSU returns to the sphere of 68 with comparable aspirations. Jaedon LeDee averaged 18.1 minutes per recreation final season as a reserve. This 12 months, he is the Aztecs’ prime scorer, averaging 21.1 PPG, 8.4 RPG and 41% from past the arc. Nonetheless, this season’s staff completed 8-7 in its ultimate 15 regular-season video games and made solely 30% of its 3-point makes an attempt in league play. Evaluate that to final season’s staff, which completed 12-3 in its ultimate 15 regular-season video games and made 38% of its 3-point makes an attempt in league play.
Area: South
Document: 22-13
Match ceiling: Candy 16
For the primary three months of the 2023-24 season, Wisconsin was nationally ranked, with aspirations to return to the Remaining 4 a decade after its back-to-back nationwide semifinal runs. AJ Storr (16.7 PPG) and the Badgers beat six top-50 KenPom squads on their strategy to a 16-4 total report and 8-1 begin in Massive Ten play. Then? The Badgers collapsed, ending with a 3-8 report of their ultimate 11 video games of the common season, taking pictures 30% from 3 and enjoying subpar protection (99th in adjusted effectivity, per barttorvik.com). That rocky tumble is difficult to overlook, however the run via the Massive Ten match — scoring 87 factors within the win over Maryland, beating Purdue within the semifinal and dealing with Illinois within the ultimate — is memorable.
Area: Midwest
Document: 25-7
Match ceiling: Elite Eight
It is uncommon to see a Gonzaga squad on the bubble, however that is the place the Bulldogs lived via early February following their loss at dwelling to Saint Mary’s. Mark Few has by no means missed the NCAA match, although, and that will not change this 12 months. After that loss, Gonzaga hit the reset button and performed on a special dimension. Led by Graham Ike (16.5 PPG, 7.2 RPG), their newest dominant paint presence, the Zags gained 9 consecutive video games after that recreation and linked on 41% of their 3-point makes an attempt and 60% of their pictures contained in the arc. Additionally they beat Kentucky in Lexington throughout that stretch, which ended with the loss to Saint Mary’s within the WCC match title recreation.
Area: West
Document: 26-7
Match ceiling: Elite Eight
Randy Bennett’s squad follows Aidan Mahaney. The Gaels went 6-1 this season when he scored 20 or extra factors in a recreation. He had 43 mixed within the win at Gonzaga within the common season and the win over the Bulldogs within the WCC match title recreation. Within the 70-57 dwelling loss to the Zags on March 2, nevertheless, he completed 6-for-17 from the sphere. Fortunately, this staff that has misplaced simply two video games since Dec. 1 has different methods to win: Mahaney is only one of 5 gamers averaging double figures, and Saint Mary’s performs a top-20 protection.
6-seeds
Area: East
Document: 23-10
Match ceiling: Candy 16
After BYU’s come-from-behind win at Kansas on Feb. 27, Jayhawks head coach Invoice Self stated his staff had problem with its defensive assignments because the Cougars launched 34 pictures from past the arc within the second half — they made 38% of these makes an attempt. Mark Pope’s squad has an elite offense that has shot 58% from contained in the arc whereas taking pictures a barrage of 3-pointers. The staff has 4 gamers who’ve made a minimum of 37% of their 3s, together with 6-foot-11 senior Noah Waterman. It is a tough group to scout due to its expertise and measurement — and simply how rapidly it could shift a recreation in its favor.
Area: South
Document: 23-10
Match ceiling: Candy 16
In his first 12 months on the job, Grant McCasland has needed to observe the “subsequent man up” philosophy coaches usually flip to in robust instances. The difficulty is, most school groups haven’t got some unsung star sitting on the bench ready for a possibility to show himself. Often. Early within the season, Devan Cambridge (10.5 PPG) suffered a year-ending knee damage. Final month, Warren Washington (9.9 PPG, 7.4 RPG, 1.5 BPG) was sidelined by a foot damage. With two starters unavailable, nevertheless, Likelihood McMillian has given the Raiders a lift off the bench, averaging 14.2 PPG within the staff’s four-game profitable streak main as much as the Massive 12 match semifinal in opposition to Houston.
Area: Midwest
Document: 26-7
Match ceiling: Candy 16
Lamont Paris wasn’t the high-major head coach a few of South Carolina’s followers wished when he was employed in 2022. However he is actually the precise selection and this season proved as a lot. The SEC Coach of the Yr, who orchestrated wins over Kentucky and Tennessee, led a staff that was picked to complete final within the league within the preseason ballot however completed in a four-way tie for second place. Since mid-January, SC has been within the prime 35 in offensive and defensive effectivity. And Collin Murray-Boyles (16.0 PPG in South Carolina’s final eight regular-season video games) is now an actual NBA prospect. Paris tends to exceed the percentages in opposition to him. Might he do it once more within the NCAA match?
Area: West
Document: 21-11
Match ceiling: Spherical of 32
PJ Corridor is arguably the perfect participant within the nation whom the nation would not appear to know — but. He had 14 factors, 8 rebounds and 4 blocks in a win over South Carolina. He completed with 21 factors, 8 rebounds and 4 blocks in a win over Alabama. He had 25 factors (4-for-10 from 3) in a win over North Carolina, too. At its finest, Clemson has tussled with the highest groups in America and gained. However it additionally completed 11-9 in ACC play, stumbled out of the primary spherical of the ACC match with a loss to Boston School and can enter Choice Sunday not wanting practically as imposing as anticipated.
7-seeds
Area: East
Document: 24-9
Match ceiling: Elite Eight
Kyle Smith deserves credit score for the unimaginable turnaround this staff has had. A 12 months in the past, the Cougars ended with a .500 report and no invitation to the NCAA match. This 12 months, they completed second within the Pac-12 standings, and acquired an invite to the NCAA match. However how? A crucial transfer halfway via the season might need been an important factor Smith did. On Jan. 10, Smith inserted Jaylen Wells, the 6-foot-8 ahead who’s averaging 12.2 PPG and connecting on 42.5% of his 3-point makes an attempt, into the beginning lineup. Washington State went on to complete 13-3 in its ultimate 16 video games of the common season, a stretch that included a sweep of Arizona. Extra importantly, in addition they rose to rank twenty fifth in adjusted defensive effectivity, in one of the important in-season turnarounds in school basketball this season.
Area: South
Document: 24-11
Match ceiling: Candy 16
The Gators anchored their résumé with wins over Kentucky (at Rupp Area), Alabama and Auburn. They’ve additionally performed a sub-100ish protection since mid-January. Regardless of this, Florida gained 11 of its final 15 video games coming into the SEC match quarterfinals in opposition to Alabama and manufactured an offense that produced 122 factors per 100 possessions, in accordance with barttorvik.com. Walter Clayton Jr. additionally hit his stride throughout that stretch, making 39% of his makes an attempt from the 3-point line. The one concern: how the Gators will alter within the postseason with out Micah Handlogten, who fractured his leg within the SEC match ultimate.
Area: Midwest
Document: 20-12
Match ceiling: Spherical of 32
That is when Max Abmas (17.1 PPG, 37% from past the arc) shines. The previous Oral Roberts star led the Golden Eagles to Summit League match titles in 2021 and 2023. Within the 2021 NCAA match, he scored 29 and 26 factors in wins over Ohio State and Florida, respectively, advancing to the Candy 16. Abmas transferred to Texas as a result of he wished to show he might compete at a Energy 5 stage, and he’ll hope to copy that manufacturing on this match. Per evanmiya.com’s defensive score system (DBPR), nevertheless, Abmas is ranked 98th within the Massive 12 in particular person defensive impression. Opponents will assault the 6-foot guard due to these defensive vulnerabilities. However in addition they should cease him on the opposite finish of the ground, which has by no means been a simple activity.
Area: West
Document: 24-7
Match ceiling: Spherical of 32
DaRon Holmes II (20.4 PPG, 8.4 RPG, 2.1 BPG, 39% from the 3-point line) has been the star for a Flyers squad that returns to the NCAA match for the primary time since 2016-17. Dayton was bounced from the Atlantic 10 match by Duquesne, which it had crushed by 26 factors mixed of their two regular-season matchups. Is the eight-point quarterfinal defeat to the Dukes a trigger for concern? Possibly. The Flyers have blown a handful of second-half leads of their latest losses. However this staff with a bunch of shooters (40.4% from 3) might be an issue for any match opponent.
8-seeds
Area: East
Document: 25-8
Match ceiling: Candy 16
A 12 months in the past, Dusty Might — one of many hottest names on the teaching circuit proper now — led the Owls to a Remaining 4. In doing so, his staff legitimately orchestrated a brand new campus id, as curiosity within the college elevated, purposes rose and donors signed large checks. Then, each key participant from essentially the most stunning staff of the 2023 NCAA match returned. That features Vladislav Goldin, who has improved this season, together with stars Johnell Davis and Alijah Martin.
However there is a main distinction with this 12 months’s staff that may’t be neglected. Coming into Choice Sunday a 12 months in the past, FAU was one of many prime defensive groups within the nation. This 12 months, it was ranked 191st from Feb. 9 via the top of the common season after making the transfer to the American Athletic Convention.
Area: South
Document: 23-10
Match ceiling: Spherical of 32
An enormous fan base 6,000 miles from Lincoln, Nebraska, can be rooting for the Cornhuskers within the NCAA match. Keisei Tominaga — a Japanese basketball star who will characterize his nation on the 2024 Olympic Video games in Paris this summer season — is the most well-liked participant on Fred Hoiberg’s roster. He is additionally the staff’s main scorer (14.8 PPG) and one of many Massive Ten’s prime 3-point shooters (38% from past the arc in league play). However Nebraska is greater than a very good story. The Cornhuskers beat Purdue and ended the common season with an 8-1 report of their ultimate 9 video games.
Area: Midwest
Document: 27-6
Match ceiling: Elite Eight
There are rebuilds, after which there are rebuilds just like the one Danny Sprinkle had on his arms this season. Utah State didn’t return a participant who had scored some extent the earlier season when he arrived from Montana State. However he constructed his nationwide coach of the 12 months marketing campaign by having one of many biggest seasons in latest Mountain West historical past, profitable the league within the course of. The turnaround started with including some acquainted faces. Nice Osobor (18.0 PPG) and Darius Brown II (12.4 PPG, 39.5% from 3) adopted Sprinkle from Montana State and helped anchor an offense that linked on 49.3% of its pictures contained in the arc. This staff can go far. The one query is whether or not will probably be distracted by the experiences that Sprinkle is without doubt one of the hottest teaching candidates amongst Energy 5 colleges with vacancies.
Area: West
Document: 21-13
Match ceiling: Spherical of 32
MSU has performed a few of America’s finest protection on this ultimate stretch of the 2023-24 season — rating twenty first in adjusted defensive effectivity from Feb. 7 via the 73-56 upset win over Tennessee within the SEC match, when Vols star Dalton Knecht shot 4-for-17 from the sphere. LSU star Jordan Wright (14.8 PPG) completed 2-for-15 in opposition to MSU a recreation earlier. The Bulldogs have been a headache for opposing stars, however they have not confronted the identical challenges. Living proof: star Josh Hubbard averaged 26.1 PPG in his staff’s final seven outings.
9-seeds
Area: East
Document: 21-11
Match ceiling: Spherical of 32
In a 12 months stuffed with groups that lacked signature wins, Northwestern by no means needed to fear. Extra time victories over each Purdue and Illinois in Evanston after beating Dayton solidified the Wildcats’ spot on the bracket. However the Northwestern squad that entered the postseason is just not the identical staff that notched these wins. Each Ty Berry and Matthew Nicholson had been starters in these key video games, however each might be unavailable for the NCAA match. Berry suffered a season-ending meniscus tear final month. And beginning heart Nicholson continues to be recovering from a foot damage that compelled him to overlook the Massive Ten match. Coming into the Dance short-handed is just not very best.
Area: South
Document: 20-14
Match ceiling: Spherical of 32
In case you’re in search of essentially the most sophisticated résumé within the subject, you have discovered it. These are the highs for Buzz Williams’ squad this season: wins over Iowa State, Kentucky and Tennessee — the latter two at dwelling. And these are the lows: two losses to Arkansas and a street loss at Vanderbilt that unfolded throughout a five-game dropping streak. Wade Taylor IV (18.9 PPG) is without doubt one of the finest gamers within the nation proper now, but it surely’s simply tough to challenge the next ceiling for a squad that has wins over prime seeds and losses to squads which may not get invited to the CBI.
Area: Midwest
Document: 20-12
Match ceiling: Spherical of 32
Twenty years in the past, Jameer Nelson led Saint Joseph’s to an ideal common season, a prime seed within the NCAA match and an Elite Eight look. This season, his son, Jameer Nelson Jr., (11.3 PPG), will try and do the identical. Becoming a member of him can be Emanuel Miller (15.9 PPG), Micah Peavy (11.1 PPG) and the remainder of a TCU squad that survived a late-season slide to safe this at-large berth. The Horned Frogs entered Massive 12 play 11-2 and recorded a 2-1 begin in opposition to convention opponents — together with beating Houston on Jan. 13. However they completed 7-8 of their ultimate 15 regular-season video games.
Area: West
Document: 19-14
Match ceiling: Candy 16
The season started with an 8-for-50 mark from past the arc in three video games — together with that dwelling loss to James Madison. However Tom Izzo, who has reached the second weekend of the NCAA match 15 instances, stated the pictures would ultimately fall. They usually did. Michigan State shot 38% from 3 the remainder of the way in which, regardless of stumbling to a 1-4 report to complete the common season. Do not depend out Izzo, although. His squads all the time shift gears in March. And this can be a group that returned the majority of final 12 months’s Candy 16 staff.
10-seeds
Area: East
Document: 28-6
Match ceiling: Spherical of 32
A 12 months in the past, Tucker DeVries — son of coach Darian DeVries — battled eventual Remaining 4 staff Miami within the first spherical of the NCAA match. He returned to Drake this season and has gotten higher, now taking pictures 38% from 3 in Missouri Valley play. This Drake staff, total, is totally different from final 12 months’s group: It has extra gaps on protection, but it surely’s extra environment friendly offensively. This explains how the Bulldogs managed to beat Nevada by 19 factors earlier this season and misplaced only one recreation after Feb. 3.
Area: South
Document: 22-10
Match ceiling: Spherical of 32
On Dec. 1, 6-foot-8 junior O’Mar Stanley was inserted into Boise State’s beginning lineup. The Broncos, who had been 3-3 on the time, completed 19-6 the remainder of the common season. Stanley linked on 38% of his 3-point makes an attempt in league play. He and Tyson Degenhart (17.0 PPG, 6.2 RPG) can be a handful for any opposing staff within the bracket. The Broncos had the Mountain West’s best offense and completed in a tie for second place with Nevada behind first-place Utah State. However in addition they completed 1-3 in opposition to the Wolf Pack and the Aggies within the common season.
Area: South
Document: 24-10
Match ceiling: Candy 16
That complete “it isn’t the way you begin, it is the way you end” philosophy? That is Colorado’s. The Buffaloes battled accidents all season solely to enter Champ Week on a six-game profitable streak with the assistance of Tristan da Silva (15.8 PPG, 37.7% from 3) and KJ Simpson (19.6 PPG, 45.3% from 3). They had been the 14th-best staff in America throughout that profitable streak, per barttorvik.com, and shot 44.4% from 3 total. Then there’s Cody Williams, a projected draft lottery choose who’s again for the postseason after lacking 4 video games with an ankle damage. Colorado is intriguing.
Area: Midwest
Document: 24-10
Match ceiling: Spherical of 32
On Nov. 23, Colorado State met Creighton for a recreation in Las Vegas. Three future all-Massive East first- and second-teamers — Ryan Kalkbrenner, Baylor Scheierman and Trey Alexander — had been current, however the perfect participant on the ground that evening was Isaiah Stevens (16.6 PPG, 7.1 APG, 46% from past the arc). The purpose guard had 20 factors and 7 assists on the way in which to the 69-48 win, handing the Bluejays their worst lack of the season. Niko Medved’s squad has made 58.2% of its 2s and performed a top-40 protection all season. With Stevens on the court docket, Medved is aware of he’ll all the time have one of many prime gamers on the ground, regardless of whom the Rams face within the NCAA match.
Area: Midwest
Document: 23-10
Match ceiling: Spherical of 32
It was bizarre to see Tony Bennett’s squad on the bubble. However the Cavs by no means discovered a rhythm outdoors a short eight-game profitable streak throughout ACC play. This, regardless of enjoying a top-10 protection. Reece Beekman (14.3 PPG) and Isaac McKneely (12.5 PPG, 44.9% from the 3-point line) have led the way in which for the Hoos, and 6-foot-8 sophomore Ryan Dunn (8.2 PPG, 7.0 RPG, 2.3 BPG) is a legit NBA prospect. However Virginia doesn’t have a win on its résumé to recommend it can final lengthy.
Area: West
Document: 26-7
Match ceiling: Candy 16
Practically six years in the past, Steve Alford was fired hours after his UCLA squad misplaced to Liberty at dwelling, his time in Westwood largely considered as a disappointment. However this recreation may be forgiving, and Alford discovered his footing at Nevada, which employed him instantly. This season might need been the perfect of profession. The Wolf Pack completed second in a Mountain West Convention that has produced extra bids than some main conferences. With 6-foot-4 guard Jarod Lucas (17.8 PPG, 39.7% from past the arc) main the staff, Nevada completed 10-1 in its ultimate 11 video games of the common season, made 42% of its 3-point makes an attempt and performed a top-15 protection.
11-seeds
Area: East
Document: 24-11
Match ceiling: First spherical
It was becoming that Jimmy Clark III led Duquesne, picked to complete fourth within the preseason, to the title recreation in opposition to VCU, his former staff. Clark had averaged 17.0 PPG throughout his staff’s seven-game profitable streak coming into the Atlantic 10 match title recreation on Sunday. The Dukes discovered a rhythm on the excellent time. Weeks after they began the calendar 12 months by dropping their first 5 A-10 video games, Duquesne is within the NCAA match for the primary time since 1977.
Area: South
Document: 22-14
Match ceiling: Spherical of 32
A 4-10 end to the common season solely intensified rumors about the way forward for Kevin Keatts at NC State, the place he has been the top coach since 2017. However the Wolfpack saved their finest basketball of the season for the ACC match. A historic 5 victories in 5 days — over Louisville, Syracuse, Duke, Virginia, and eventually North Carolina within the championship recreation — secured the third NCAA match berth of Keatts’ tenure. This run additionally gave America an opportunity to get to know DJ Burns Jr. (12.2 PPG), the 6-foot-9, 275-pound heart who stated he idolized Hakeem Olajuwon as a child however was born with a “Zach Randolph physique.”
Area: Midwest
Document: 23-11
Match ceiling: Spherical of 32
The switch portal giveth, and the switch portal taketh away. For years, Oregon was a hub for prime gamers in America in search of a change of surroundings. Final 12 months, nevertheless, the Geese had been on the flawed finish of that development as Kel’el Ware (Indiana), Rivaldo Soares (Oklahoma) and Quincy Guerrier (Illinois) all left. They stumbled in league play and completed tenth in defensive effectivity within the Pac-12, per KenPom. Then they defeated Arizona within the semifinals of the Pac-12 match on Friday to place them within the bubble dialog. That dialog ended once they defeated Colorado for the ultimate Pac-12 match championship in its present iteration. Dana Altman will go to his eighth NCAA match look with the Geese.
Area: West
Document: 26-9
Match ceiling: Spherical of 32
If you wish to understand how previous you might be, take into account this: The sons of Rick Pitino and Jamal Mashburn have led New Mexico to its first NCAA match look in a decade. Head coach Richard Pitino and Jamal Mashburn Jr. (14.4 PPG) secured the Lobos a berth by profitable the Mountain West championship. They completed 4-6 of their final 10 video games, 5-6 total in opposition to top-50 squads on KenPom through the common season. However Mashburn missed the two-point loss to Utah State within the regular-season finale resulting from sickness. A wholesome New Mexico might advance.
12-seeds
Area: East
Document: 23-11
Match ceiling: Spherical of 32
On Jan. 7, UAB beat South Florida. Then Amir Abdur-Rahim’s staff gained 15 video games in a row, gained the American regular-season title, and the Bulls turned a nationwide story. That victory helped the Blazers, who misplaced to North Texas within the NIT title recreation final 12 months, perceive its ceiling. So when the Blazers confronted South Florida within the convention match semifinals, they had been ready, they usually defeated USF once more earlier than the staff’s win over Temple within the AAC match title recreation Sunday. Kennedy’s squad excels with a gritty model. It performs a tricky protection (see: Yaxel Lendeborg, AAC defensive participant of the 12 months) and will get to the free throw line at one of many highest charges in America.
Area: South
Document: 31-3
Match ceiling: Candy 16
The magic started with a win at Michigan State, a matchup scheduled as a result of a James Madison staffer is Tom Izzo’s nephew. Mark Byington’s squad then went 14-0 to start out the season and earned at-large consideration. A few Solar Belt losses modified issues, however the Dukes nonetheless completed the season with the nation’s longest profitable streak (13 video games). Terrence Edwards Jr. (17.4 PPG) leads a staff that shot 54% contained in the arc in league play.
It is an fascinating profile for a staff. A 12 months in the past, Florida Atlantic gained a bunch of video games early, misplaced just a few in league play after which ended the season on a prolonged profitable streak earlier than going to the Remaining 4. Simply saying.
Area: Midwest
Document: 30-3
Match ceiling: Candy 16
A 12 months in the past, McNeese was an afterthought after profitable simply 11 video games and ending second-to-last within the Southland standings. Then former LSU coach Will Wade arrived. In only one season, he has generated one of many biggest one-year turnarounds in school basketball. The Cowboys gained 30 video games, dominated the league and gained the convention match by a mean margin of 17.5 PPG.
Area: West
Document: 29-4
Match ceiling: Candy 16
After a nine-win 2018-19 season on the Vanderbilt helm, Bryce Drew — higher often known as the participant who made the deciding shot in Valparaiso’s upset win over Ole Miss within the 1998 NCAA match — misplaced his job and dabbled in TV for a 12 months. However teaching is in his blood. And his stint with GCU, dwelling to one of many biggest pupil sections within the land, has been redemptive. On the again of the Lopes’ win over UT Arlington within the WAC title recreation, Drew has an opportunity to drag off an upset or two with a squad that beat San Diego State earlier this season and went toe-to-toe with South Carolina, too.
13-seeds
Area: East
Document: 22-9
Match ceiling: Spherical of 32
It was no shock to see the Ivy League’s prime defensive staff reside as much as the hype after it was picked to win the convention crown within the preseason. In Danny Wolf (14.5 PPG, 9.7 RPG, 1.3 BPG), Yale coach James Jones has a singular matchup problem for opposing groups. Wolf, a 7-footer who has linked on 37% of his 3-point makes an attempt this season (regardless of struggling from past the arc not too long ago), has scored 19 factors or extra in 11 video games this season. He is additionally considered one of 5 gamers on this roster averaging double figures.
Area: South
Document: 28-6
Match ceiling: Spherical of 32
John Becker’s dominance of America East continued together with his third consecutive league match title and his third consecutive NCAA match look (the sixth of his profession). Throughout their 10-game profitable streak, the Catamounts had been ranked thirty sixth nationally in adjusted defensive effectivity and held their opponents to a forty five.8% clip contained in the arc. They play considered one of America’s slowest paces and barely commit turnovers (eleventh within the nation, per KenPom). Plus, they gained 10 video games by double digits in league play.
Area: Midwest
Document: 29-5
Match ceiling: Spherical of 32
Everytime you assess an underdog’s shot at an upset, the primary query must be this: Does this staff do one thing at a very excessive stage that might proceed within the NCAA match? For Samford, the reply is sure. This staff has linked on 39% of its 3-point makes an attempt — Jaden Campbell (48%) is considered one of eight Bulldogs who’ve shot a minimum of 38% from 3 — a top-10 mark in America. Bucky McMillan’s squad additionally performs at a top-15 tempo. Translation: It is a quick staff that launches 3-pointers all around the flooring. It won’t be a enjoyable first-round recreation for the opponent.
Area: West
Document: 27-7
Match ceiling: Spherical of 32
Final 12 months, the Cougars virtually spoiled San Diego State’s Remaining 4 run. Matched in opposition to the Aztecs within the opening spherical, Ante Brzovic’s layup tied the sport at 53 with 3:27 to play. Charleston did not win, however the staff channeled that recreation’s vitality throughout this 31-win season, orchestrated by coach Pat Kelsey. Led offensively by Reyne Smith (12.8 PPG) and Brzovic (12.3), the Cougars are driving a 12-game profitable streak into the NCAA match. They gained seven of these video games by double digits.
14-seeds
Area: East
Document: 26-8
Match ceiling: Spherical of 32
Coach Preston Spradlin preferred his staff’s potential to safe this system’s second NCAA match berth since 2011. After which Mark Freeman — the reigning OVC participant of the 12 months and the preseason OVC participant of the 12 months — suffered a second-ending wrist damage in October. Dropping Freeman did not cease Spradlin and his squad, although, which then turned to former NAIA star Riley Minix (20.8 PPG, 9.8 RPG) and Milwaukee switch Jordan Lathon (15.4 PPG, 38% from the 3-point line), who led the Eagles to the Ohio Valley Convention match championship and that NCAA match berth.
Area: South
Document: 23-11
Match ceiling: Spherical of 32
When Greg Kampe was employed in 1984, Kenny Loggins’ “Footloose” was a chart-topping hit and “Ghostbusters” was the most important film on the earth. It was additionally the beginning of a 40-year run at Oakland, and earlier than this season tipped, Kampe thought of retirement. It is a good factor he stayed. Main an Oakland squad that was picked to complete sixth within the league’s preseason ballot, Kampe pushed this staff to the Horizon League common season title, the convention match championship and now his fourth NCAA match berth. Trey Townsend (16.9 PPG) & Co. will attempt to make this season extra magical with an NCAA match win.
Area: Midwest
Document: 24-10
Match ceiling: First spherical
The MAC has been a goal for Energy 5 colleges looking for a mid-major switch who might change their program. RayJ Dennis, the 2022-23 convention participant of the 12 months, had a mess of gives earlier than he picked Baylor. Enrique Freeman, a 6-foot-7 ahead who has linked on 63% of his pictures contained in the arc this season, would have drawn the identical consideration. However Freeman by no means entered the switch portal. Earlier this month, he gained MAC participant of the 12 months because the chief of this Akron squad. The return of Ali Ali (15.6 PPG), who began at Akron however left for Butler final season earlier than coming again, has been crucial, too.
Area: West
Document: 25-9
Match ceiling: First spherical
Sure, the varsity is basically named after the toothpaste household. However this is one other enjoyable reality concerning the basketball program: Earlier than Matt Langel’s run of 5 consecutive NCAA match appearances, the varsity hadn’t been to the dance since 1996. Colgate made 39% of its 3-point makes an attempt in Patriot League video games and likewise owned the convention’s prime protection this season. It is a balanced staff. Braeden Smith (12.5 PPG) is considered one of six gamers averaging a minimum of 6.8 PPG.
15-seeds
Area: East
Document: 22-12
Match ceiling: Spherical of 32
Some groups had been so occupied with getting Zeke Mayo (18.8 PPG, 5.8 RPG, 3.5 APG), SDSU’s 6-4 star guard, to switch to their college that they contacted a few of his relations final summer season to attempt to attain him. However Mayo stayed put, and SDSU returned the nucleus of final 12 months’s staff, made 56% of its pictures contained in the arc this season and is coming into the primary spherical with severe upset ambitions.
Area: South
Document: 22-11
Match ceiling: First spherical
First-year head coaches need to put their stamp on a program instantly. Steve Lutz, who led Texas A&M Corpus-Christi to back-to-back NCAA match appearances in 2021 and 2022, determined that his new staff would play quick. Very quick. Per KenPom, the Hilltoppers are the speediest staff in school basketball. Generally, the model can look sloppy — WKU dedicated turnovers as soon as each 5 journeys down the ground. However it could additionally overwhelm opponents. Don McHenry (15.2 PPG) and the Hilltoppers gained the Convention USA match by a margin of 19.3 factors per recreation.
Area: Midwest
Document: 19-13
Match ceiling: First spherical
They’re again! Two years after an Elite Eight run modified this system and the campus, the bracket-busting Peacocks are as soon as once more within the NCAA match. Throughout that magical run of 2022, Saint Peter’s beat Kentucky, Murray State and Purdue earlier than falling to North Carolina within the Elite Eight. Latrell Reid performed only one minute in that loss. This season, the 6-foot-3 guard (11.1 PPG, 4.5 RPG, 4.6 APG) is without doubt one of the prime gamers for a squad that hopes to make magic once more.
Area: West
Document: 21-14
Match ceiling: First spherical
Six days in the past, Lengthy Seashore State introduced it had “mutually” agreed to half methods with longtime head coach Dan Monson — after a five-game dropping streak coming into the Massive West match — however would enable him to teach via the postseason. His gamers appeared to make use of that information as motivation on their strategy to the Massive West match title, and the second NCAA match look of Monson’s tenure. Lengthy Seashore State has been one of many worst 3-point taking pictures groups in America however made 38% of its 3-point makes an attempt within the convention match. Everybody must be rooting for Monson and the Seashore.
16-seeds
Area: East
Document: 22-12
Match ceiling: First spherical
Donnie Jones has been a university basketball head coach because the 2007-08 season, when he led Marshall. He had stops at UCF and Wichita State, the place he was an assistant, earlier than Stetson employed him in 2019. Jones and Stetson had been comparable in some ways. He had by no means reached the NCAA match, and Stetson had by no means earned an NCAA match invitation as a Division I college. Till now. His star, Jalen Blackmon (21.5 PPG, 39% from past the arc), scored 43 factors in his staff’s win within the Atlantic Solar convention match title recreation. Blackmon can be robust to comprise.
Area: South
Document: 21-13
Match ceiling: First spherical
Earlier than coach Griff Aldrich arrived in 2018, Longwood had had one profitable season since 2004-05 — when it turned a Division I college. Aldrich simply completed his third consecutive profitable season and gained his second NCAA match berth. Not dangerous for a man who was a global legal professional and oil tycoon earlier than he took this job. This season, he achieved all of it with Walyn Napper (14.6 PPG), Michael Christmas (11.5 PPG) and Johnathan Massie (11.4 PPG), who helped the staff climate a 2-10 stretch to complete the season with seven wins in its final 9 video games coming into the NCAA match.
Area: Midwest
Document: 20-14
Match ceiling: First spherical
For 3 consecutive seasons, Texas Southern represented the SWAC within the NCAA match. However a hefty nonconference schedule — Colorado, Iowa State, Dayton, Washington State, Florida — ready Donte Jackson’s Tigers squad. Grambling is 12-2 over its previous 14 video games. And Jourdan Smith, a 6-foot-7 ahead, scored 20 factors in his staff’s 75-66 victory over … Texas Southern within the SWAC match championship recreation to safe this system’s first NCAA match look as a Division I program.
Area: Midwest
Document: 17-17
Match ceiling: First spherical
When coach Danny Sprinkle left for the Utah State job after final season’s NCAA match look, key gamers left this system, too. RaeQuan Battle transferred to West Virginia, whereas Darius Brown II and Nice Osobor adopted Sprinkle. First-year coach Matt Logie needed to begin from scratch. He weathered a 14-17 common season (9-9 in league play), and his new star, 6-foot-6 guard Robert Ford III, scored 68 factors in three days to guide the Bobcats to the Massive Sky convention match title.
Area: West
Document: 18-16
Match ceiling: First spherical
Kenny Blakeney by no means needed to look too far for teaching recommendation all through his profession. In highschool, he performed for Morgan Wooten, a legendary prep coach. In school, he performed for Mike Krzyzewski at Duke. Now, he is carving out his teaching legacy at one of many nation’s most prestigious Traditionally Black Schools and Universities together with his second consecutive MEAC match championship and NCAA match look. Two starters (Dom Campbell and Shy Odom) have battled accidents this 12 months, however Seth Cities (14.2 PPG), an eighth-year senior — that’s not a typo — has been a frontrunner for this group.
Area: West
Document: 16-15
Match ceiling: First spherical
In most non-Energy 5 leagues, solely the automated qualifier will get the prospect to play within the NCAA match. Groups which have dominated their conferences can usually be disregarded, and groups which have struggled may be rewarded for a late run. The latter is the state of affairs for Melvin Council Jr. (14.6 PPG) & Co., who completed the common season with a 13-15 report total and 7-9 mark in NEC play — good for sixth place – earlier than profitable the match championship over prime staff Merrimack for the league’s auto bid.
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