The race for the NBA’s Western Convention play-in event — and to keep away from all of it collectively — is heating up with slightly below a month remaining within the common season. And there are some star-studded races to look at down the stretch.
Let’s begin towards the underside, the place the Los Angeles Lakers and Golden State Warriors are on a collision course for the 9-10 recreation. LeBron James and Stephen Curry, every with 4 NBA titles, will doubtless must win twice within the event to only attain the playoffs and have an opportunity at a fifth ring.
Above L.A. and Golden State sit three groups battling for the coveted 6-seed: the Sacramento Kings, Phoenix Suns and Dallas Mavericks. The Kings at present have the within observe, due to a double-digit win over the Lakers on Wednesday.
How will the standings shake out? Which groups have the hardest schedules remaining? What matchups and stats will matter most? Our NBA Insiders are breaking down what lies forward for every contender and what they should do for a playoff berth.
Word: Remaining power of schedule and seeding odds courtesy of ESPN Basketball Energy Index (BPI).
6. Sacramento Kings
2023-24 document: 38-27
Remaining SOS: No. 19
BPI odds at No. 6 seed: 46.8%
Nothing about this crew is a given, aside from Domantas Sabonis’ nightly double-double performances (48 straight video games, the third-longest in-season streak because the 1976-77 NBA-ABA merger). However since struggling a deflating house defeat to the Chicago Bulls by which they blew a 22-point lead, the Kings have gained 4 their previous 5 video games and are a season-best 11 video games over .500. And because the All-Star break, Sacramento has earned victories over the first-place Denver Nuggets (twice), third-place Minnesota Timberwolves and the fourth-place LA Clippers inside the final month and alter.
In March, the membership owns a top-five offense and top-five web score. There was one vibrant spot recently on protection amongst this porous group: Second-year guard Keon Ellis restricted Damian Lillard and D’Angelo Russell to 10 factors or fewer in back-to-back video games this week.
Nonetheless, De’Aaron Fox, Sabonis and the Kings have their work reduce out for them schedule-wise. Among the many groups which can be combating to keep away from the play-in spherical, solely the No. 7 Suns have a harder remaining schedule. Sacramento’s upcoming 10-game slate from March 26 to April 12 features a pair of video games towards All-NBA flooring basic Luka Doncic and the Mavs, the Clippers, the New York Knicks, the Boston Celtics, the Oklahoma Metropolis Thunder, New Orleans Pelicans and the Suns. – Chris Herring
Quantity to look at down the stretch: 22-20 vs. groups with profitable information
The Lakers aren’t the one crew which may not need to see the Kings within the play-in. Sacramento trails the season collection towards simply two West postseason groups: the Clippers (1-2) and the Pelicans (0-4).
The Kings are considered one of eight groups with a profitable document towards groups .500 or higher, a feat the Suns, Mavs, Lakers and Warriors cannot boast. Against this, Sacramento has gone 16-7 (.696) towards the league’s below-.500 drags, far worse than Dallas (21-5, .808) and Golden State (20-5, .800). – Kevin Pelton
7. Phoenix Suns
2023-24 document: 38-28
Remaining SOS: No. 2
BPI odds at No. 6 seed: 27.7%
When Phoenix dropped to 14-15 after shedding on Christmas Day to the Mavericks, it appeared the crew’s massive three of Devin Booker, Kevin Durant and Bradley Beal wasn’t going to repay. At that time accidents had zapped the crew, with Beal and Jusuf Nurkic each out.
Since then, Phoenix has gone 24-12 to show round their season. Beal performed in simply six video games previous to Christmas however has been principally wholesome since. With Durant and Booker enjoying at an All-NBA degree, Phoenix hopes it’s going to have sufficient to get out of the play-in event and get a much-needed 5 or 6 days off earlier than the primary spherical begins.
Sadly for Phoenix, the Suns have the hardest remaining schedule within the West, with 11 of their 17 remaining video games on the street. Their remaining six regular-season video games may determine their postseason destiny, with the Suns set to face contenders within the Timberwolves, Pelicans, Clippers and Kings. – Andrew Lopez
Quantity to look at down the stretch: 45% 3-point taking pictures from beginning 5
If the Suns are going to keep away from the play-in and make a deep playoff run, they’re going to do it on the power of their taking pictures. Phoenix’s total 38% 3-point taking pictures, good for seventh within the league, understates the hazard offered by the Suns’ starters.
Among the many three lineups this season which have shot no less than 44% on no less than 100 3-point makes an attempt, per NBA Superior Stats, two are from Phoenix: 45% with the starters (better of any lineup that is shot no less than 150 3s) and 44.5% with Eric Gordon rather than Beal. – Pelton
8. Dallas Mavericks
2023-24 document: 38-29
Remaining SOS: No. 17
BPI odds at No. 6 seed: 40.5%
Dallas has handled accidents and inconsistency whereas trying to find one of the best matches to enrich their co-superstars Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving, using 33 totally different beginning lineups up to now this season.
The Mavs have aggressively tried to improve Doncic’s supporting solid over the previous few transaction cycles, beginning with the Irving commerce, giving up 2027 and 2029 first-round picks and 2028 and 2030 swap rights.
Dallas is 5-0 when this season’s deadline additions Daniel Gafford and P.J. Washington begin alongside Doncic and Irving. Dallas is 24-15 when Doncic and Irving each play, a drastic improve from the duo’s 5-11 document en path to the lottery final season, however now Doncic is coping with left hamstring soreness that sidelined him Thursday evening in Oklahoma Metropolis.
The Mavericks’ two clashes with the Kings on March 26 and 29 may decide whether or not Dallas has real looking hopes of climbing out of the play-in image. Sacramento gained the earlier two conferences between the groups, so Dallas must sweep the set for an opportunity at a tiebreaker (convention document).
The excellent news? The Mavs have earned the tiebreaker over the Suns, the opposite crew within the tightly bunched group between sixth and eighth within the standings. – Tim MacMahon
Quantity to look at down the stretch: twenty eighth in protection since All-Star break
The Mavericks’ offense has been surging. Solely the Celtics and Nuggets — the 2 title favorites — have higher offensive rankings previously month. But Dallas has gone simply 6-5 due to a bottom-three protection in that span. The Mavericks have been hit by opponent’s 3-point taking pictures variance, with the 39% they’re taking pictures ranks twenty ninth within the league.
Nonetheless, the newly acquired Washington has been miscast within the position of wing stopper, understandably struggling to comprise the league’s greatest scorers. If Dallas goes to make a playoff run, the protection should tighten up. – Pelton
9. Los Angeles Lakers
2023-24 document: 36-31
Remaining SOS: No. 21
BPI odds at No. 6 seed: 4.3%
Are the Lakers the identical crew that made the convention finals final spring and gained the inaugural in-season event in December? Are they a title-caliber crew simply barraged by accidents? Or are they merely not ok to be thought-about a real contender?
Whereas they is likely to be trending upward — 12-6 since Feb. 1 — the Lakers’ total efficiency has been center of the pack: seventeenth in offensive effectivity and 18th in defensive effectivity. Given final season’s playoff run because the No. 7 seed and the attainable returns of key contributors Jarred Vanderbilt, Gabe Vincent and Christian Wooden means L.A. cannot be counted out
However James has likened this season’s Lakers to Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde for a purpose.
The No. 9 Lakers have a one-game lead over the Warriors and play them two extra instances within the remaining month of the common season, after the groups break up their first two conferences. L.A. nonetheless has aspirations of profitable sufficient down the stretch to keep away from the play-in event utterly, but when that surge would not occur, these video games towards Golden State — Saturday and April 9 in L.A. — may very effectively determine who hosts a single-elimination No. 9 vs. No. 10 play-in recreation. – Dave McMenamin
Quantity to look at down the stretch: Anthony Davis’ 0-10 profession document vs. Sabonis
The Lakers do not need a play-in matchup with the Kings, who swept the regular-season collection 4-0, retaining Davis winless in his profession head-to-head with Sabonis. The mark is inflated by 4 wins in Sabonis’ 2016-17 rookie season in Oklahoma Metropolis, throughout which Davis (then with the Pelicans) outscored Sabonis 117-20.
The 2 gamers in some way by no means matched up within the time between when Davis joined the Lakers and Sabonis was traded to Sacramento. Since then, Davis has struggled in head-to-head conferences (taking pictures 44%) greater than Sabonis has essentially overperformed. Finally, Davis will greatest Sabonis, however the Lakers would slightly not take that probability now. – Pelton
10. Golden State Warriors
2023-24 document: 34-31
Remaining SOS: No. 14
BPI odds at No. 6 seed: 0.9%
Popping out of the All-Star break, the Tenth-place Warriors nonetheless had their sights on securing a top-six seed within the Western Convention.
“We’re probably not centered on 7 [seed], 8, 9, 10. We’re taking a look at No. 6 and No. 5,” Warriors guard Brandin Podziemski mentioned.
Stephen Curry agreed: “It is a lofty purpose, however we are able to get there.”
Now, with lower than a month left within the common season and nonetheless in Tenth place — one recreation behind the Lakers for ninth and 4 video games behind Sacramento for sixth — the Warriors are close to locks for the play-in event.
They need to deal with climbing into the seventh or eighth seed. When wholesome, the Warriors have confirmed they will put up a struggle towards a title contender. Klay Thompson and Chris Paul have steadied the second unit, whereas the emergence of younger gamers akin to Podziemski and Trayce Jackson-Davis have given them some depth. Jonathan Kuminga has had a breakout season with a profession excessive 16.1 factors per recreation — and the crew is 15-8 since he grew to become a starter in December.
They nonetheless have huge lapses, failing to complete video games — they’re 18-20 in 38 clutch video games, tied for second-most within the league — and struggling to compete with the highest groups, most just lately being blown out by 52 factors towards the Celtics.
Golden State performs 10 of their remaining 17 video games on the street, which is likely to be a blessing in disguise. The Warriors are 17-13 away from Chase Heart — a large enchancment over their 11-30 street document final season, fourth-worst within the NBA. Serving to the Warriors is the Tenth best remaining schedule within the league — and second-easiest amongst West contenders at present within the play-in race. – Kendra Andrews
Quantity to look at down the stretch: Thompson averaging 19.7 factors per recreation as a reserve
The ankle sprain that sidelined Curry the previous three video games — two losses throughout that span — briefly moved Thompson again into the beginning 5. However earlier than that, bringing the longer term Corridor of Famer off the bench was working for the Warriors. Thompson averaged extra factors in 26.3 minutes per recreation as a reserve than he did in 30.2 MPG as a starter (16.6 PPG).
Thompson hit 44% of his 3s as a reserve, up from 37% as a starter. And enjoying Thompson with the reserves allowed Golden State to characteristic him with the next utilization charge (27%, up from 23% as a starter). – Pelton
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