NBA’s wild West play-in race: Who will not make the playoffs?

The race for the NBA’s Western Convention play-in match — and to keep away from all of it collectively — is heating up with just below a month remaining within the common season. And there are some star-studded races to look at down the stretch.

Let’s begin towards the underside, the place the Los Angeles Lakers and Golden State Warriors are on a collision course for the 9-10 sport. LeBron James and Stephen Curry, every with 4 NBA titles, will doubtless must win twice within the match to simply attain the playoffs and have an opportunity at a fifth ring.

Above L.A. and Golden State sit three groups battling for the coveted 6-seed: the Sacramento Kings, Phoenix Suns and Dallas Mavericks. The Kings at the moment have the within monitor, due to a double-digit win over the Lakers on Wednesday.

How will the standings shake out? Which groups have the hardest schedules remaining? What matchups and stats will matter most? Our NBA Insiders are breaking down what lies forward for every contender and what they should do for a playoff berth.

Notice: Remaining energy of schedule and seeding odds courtesy of ESPN Basketball Energy Index (BPI).

6. Sacramento Kings

2023-24 report: 38-27
Remaining SOS: No. 19
BPI odds at No. 6 seed: 46.8%

Nothing about this staff is a given, aside from Domantas Sabonis’ nightly double-double performances (48 straight video games, the third-longest in-season streak because the 1976-77 NBA-ABA merger). However since struggling a deflating dwelling defeat to the Chicago Bulls during which they blew a 22-point lead, the Kings have gained 4 their previous 5 video games and are a season-best 11 video games over .500. And because the All-Star break, Sacramento has earned victories over the first-place Denver Nuggets (twice), third-place Minnesota Timberwolves and the fourth-place LA Clippers inside the final month and alter.

In March, the membership owns a top-five offense and top-five internet ranking. There was one vibrant spot these days on protection amongst this porous group: Second-year guard Keon Ellis restricted Damian Lillard and D’Angelo Russell to 10 factors or fewer in back-to-back video games this week.

Nonetheless, De’Aaron Fox, Sabonis and the Kings have their work lower out for them schedule-wise. Among the many groups which are preventing to keep away from the play-in spherical, solely the No. 7 Suns have a more durable remaining schedule. Sacramento’s upcoming 10-game slate from March 26 to April 12 features a pair of video games towards All-NBA ground common Luka Doncic and the Mavs, the Clippers, the New York Knicks, the Boston Celtics, the Oklahoma Metropolis Thunder, New Orleans Pelicans and the Suns. – Chris Herring

Quantity to look at down the stretch: 22-20 vs. groups with successful data

The Lakers aren’t the one staff that may not wish to see the Kings within the play-in. Sacramento trails the season sequence towards simply two West postseason groups: the Clippers (1-2) and the Pelicans (0-4).

The Kings are certainly one of eight groups with a successful report towards groups .500 or higher, a feat the Suns, Mavs, Lakers and Warriors cannot boast. Against this, Sacramento has gone 16-7 (.696) towards the league’s below-.500 drags, far worse than Dallas (21-5, .808) and Golden State (20-5, .800). – Kevin Pelton

7. Phoenix Suns

2023-24 report: 38-28
Remaining SOS: No. 2
BPI odds at No. 6 seed: 27.7%

When Phoenix dropped to 14-15 after dropping on Christmas Day to the Mavericks, it appeared the staff’s large three of Devin Booker, Kevin Durant and Bradley Beal wasn’t going to repay. At that time accidents had zapped the staff, with Beal and Jusuf Nurkic each out.

Since then, Phoenix has gone 24-12 to show round their season. Beal performed in simply six video games previous to Christmas however has been largely wholesome since. With Durant and Booker taking part in at an All-NBA degree, Phoenix hopes it’s going to have sufficient to get out of the play-in match and get a much-needed 5 – 6 days off earlier than the primary spherical begins.

Sadly for Phoenix, the Suns have the hardest remaining schedule within the West, with 11 of their 17 remaining video games on the highway. Their closing six regular-season video games might determine their postseason destiny, with the Suns set to face contenders within the Timberwolves, Pelicans, Clippers and Kings. – Andrew Lopez

Quantity to look at down the stretch: 45% 3-point capturing from beginning 5

If the Suns are going to keep away from the play-in and make a deep playoff run, they will do it on the energy of their capturing. Phoenix’s general 38% 3-point capturing, good for seventh within the league, understates the hazard introduced by the Suns’ starters.

Among the many three lineups this season which have shot at the least 44% on at the least 100 3-point makes an attempt, per NBA Superior Stats, two are from Phoenix: 45% with the starters (better of any lineup that is shot at the least 150 3s) and 44.5% with Eric Gordon rather than Beal. – Pelton

8. Dallas Mavericks

2023-24 report: 38-29
Remaining SOS: No. 17
BPI odds at No. 6 seed: 40.5%

Dallas has handled accidents and inconsistency whereas looking for one of the best matches to enhance their co-superstars Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving, using 33 completely different beginning lineups thus far this season.

The Mavs have aggressively tried to improve Doncic’s supporting solid over the previous couple of transaction cycles, beginning with the Irving commerce, giving up 2027 and 2029 first-round picks and 2028 and 2030 swap rights.

Dallas is 5-0 when this season’s deadline additions Daniel Gafford and P.J. Washington begin alongside Doncic and Irving. Dallas is 24-15 when Doncic and Irving each play, a drastic improve from the duo’s 5-11 report en path to the lottery final season, however now Doncic is coping with left hamstring soreness that sidelined him Thursday evening in Oklahoma Metropolis.

The Mavericks’ two clashes with the Kings on March 26 and 29 might decide whether or not Dallas has reasonable hopes of climbing out of the play-in image. Sacramento gained the earlier two conferences between the groups, so Dallas must sweep the set for an opportunity at a tiebreaker (convention report).

The excellent news? The Mavs have earned the tiebreaker over the Suns, the opposite staff within the tightly bunched group between sixth and eighth within the standings. – Tim MacMahon

Quantity to look at down the stretch: twenty eighth in protection since All-Star break

The Mavericks’ offense has been surging. Solely the Celtics and Nuggets — the 2 title favorites — have higher offensive scores prior to now month. But Dallas has gone simply 6-5 due to a bottom-three protection in that span. The Mavericks have been hit by opponent’s 3-point capturing variance, with the 39% they’re capturing ranks twenty ninth within the league.

Nevertheless, the newly acquired Washington has been miscast within the position of wing stopper, understandably struggling to include the league’s greatest scorers. If Dallas goes to make a playoff run, the protection should tighten up. – Pelton

9. Los Angeles Lakers

2023-24 report: 36-31
Remaining SOS: No. 21
BPI odds at No. 6 seed: 4.3%

Are the Lakers the identical staff that made the convention finals final spring and gained the inaugural in-season match in December? Are they a title-caliber staff simply barraged by accidents? Or are they merely not ok to be thought of a real contender?

Whereas they is likely to be trending upward — 12-6 since Feb. 1 — the Lakers’ general efficiency has been center of the pack: seventeenth in offensive effectivity and 18th in defensive effectivity. Given final season’s playoff run because the No. 7 seed and the doable returns of key contributors Jarred Vanderbilt, Gabe Vincent and Christian Wooden means L.A. cannot be counted out

However James has likened this season’s Lakers to Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde for a cause.

The No. 9 Lakers have a one-game lead over the Warriors and play them two extra instances within the closing month of the common season, after the groups cut up their first two conferences. L.A. nonetheless has aspirations of successful sufficient down the stretch to keep away from the play-in match utterly, but when that surge does not occur, these video games towards Golden State — Saturday and April 9 in L.A. — might very nicely determine who hosts a single-elimination No. 9 vs. No. 10 play-in sport. – Dave McMenamin

Quantity to look at down the stretch: Anthony Davis’ 0-10 profession report vs. Sabonis

The Lakers do not need a play-in matchup with the Kings, who swept the regular-season sequence 4-0, holding Davis winless in his profession head-to-head with Sabonis. The mark is inflated by 4 wins in Sabonis’ 2016-17 rookie season in Oklahoma Metropolis, throughout which Davis (then with the Pelicans) outscored Sabonis 117-20.

The 2 gamers one way or the other by no means matched up within the time between when Davis joined the Lakers and Sabonis was traded to Sacramento. Since then, Davis has struggled in head-to-head conferences (capturing 44%) greater than Sabonis has essentially overperformed. Ultimately, Davis will greatest Sabonis, however the Lakers would relatively not take that probability now. – Pelton

10. Golden State Warriors

2023-24 report: 34-31
Remaining SOS: No. 14
BPI odds at No. 6 seed: 0.9%

Popping out of the All-Star break, the Tenth-place Warriors nonetheless had their sights on securing a top-six seed within the Western Convention.

“We’re not likely targeted on 7 [seed], 8, 9, 10. We’re taking a look at No. 6 and No. 5,” Warriors guard Brandin Podziemski stated.

Stephen Curry agreed: “It is a lofty objective, however we will get there.”

Now, with lower than a month left within the common season and nonetheless in Tenth place — one sport behind the Lakers for ninth and 4 video games behind Sacramento for sixth — the Warriors are close to locks for the play-in match.

They need to concentrate on climbing into the seventh or eighth seed. When wholesome, the Warriors have confirmed they’ll put up a combat towards a title contender. Klay Thompson and Chris Paul have steadied the second unit, whereas the emergence of younger gamers comparable to Podziemski and Trayce Jackson-Davis have given them some depth. Jonathan Kuminga has had a breakout season with a profession excessive 16.1 factors per sport — and the staff is 15-8 since he grew to become a starter in December.

They nonetheless have huge lapses, failing to complete video games — they’re 18-20 in 38 clutch video games, tied for second-most within the league — and struggling to compete with the highest groups, most not too long ago being blown out by 52 factors towards the Celtics.

Golden State performs 10 of their closing 17 video games on the highway, which is likely to be a blessing in disguise. The Warriors are 17-13 away from Chase Heart — a large enchancment over their 11-30 highway report final season, fourth-worst within the NBA. Serving to the Warriors is the Tenth best remaining schedule within the league — and second-easiest amongst West contenders at the moment within the play-in race. – Kendra Andrews

Quantity to look at down the stretch: Thompson averaging 19.7 factors per sport as a reserve

The ankle sprain that sidelined Curry the previous three video games — two losses throughout that span — quickly moved Thompson again into the beginning 5. However earlier than that, bringing the longer term Corridor of Famer off the bench was working for the Warriors. Thompson averaged extra factors in 26.3 minutes per sport as a reserve than he did in 30.2 MPG as a starter (16.6 PPG).

Thompson hit 44% of his 3s as a reserve, up from 37% as a starter. And taking part in Thompson with the reserves allowed Golden State to characteristic him with the next utilization charge (27%, up from 23% as a starter). – Pelton