Caitlin Clark WNBA predictions: Strengths, hurdles to anticipate

Caitlin Clark enters her last Large Ten event hoping to steer Iowa to its third consecutive title. In 2022, the Hawkeyes received the event at Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis. Final yr, Iowa received the championship at Goal Middle in Minneapolis, web site of this season’s event.

The senior guard’s focus is absolutely on Iowa. However in somewhat greater than 5 weeks, Gainbridge will develop into Clark’s dwelling enviornment if she is picked No. 1 as anticipated by the Indiana Fever within the WNBA draft. The Fever will go to Goal Middle — the place Clark, who was born in West Des Moines, Iowa, attended WNBA video games as a toddler — for the primary of three regular-season contests on July 14.

So whereas Clark retains her thoughts on the enterprise at hand in taking advantage of her last faculty postseason, we’re trying forward to what’s coming quickly in her skilled profession. Like all WNBA rookies, Clark will expertise a whirlwind of transition over the subsequent few months.

How will she take care of the transfer to the WNBA? What features of the skilled sport would possibly take essentially the most time for her to regulate to? And with the Paris Olympics 4 months away, how does that think about for Clark? ESPN talked to WNBA consultants — coaches, basic managers and analysts — for his or her perception.

How will Clark’s offensive expertise translate to the WNBA?

No NCAA Division I participant has scored extra factors than Clark, and he or she’s the one participant since assists have been formally recorded within the faculty sport to have a minimum of 3,000 factors and 1,000 assists. Her legacy is cemented as one of many best offensive gamers in faculty basketball historical past.

Clark averages 32.3 factors this season and 28.3 for her profession. For perspective, Diana Taurasi’s 25.3 factors per sport in 2006 (her third yr within the league) is the very best common in WNBA historical past. Cynthia Cooper, who performed the primary 4 seasons within the WNBA after a prolonged abroad profession, has the very best WNBA profession scoring common at 20.98. Breanna Stewart has the very best scoring common amongst lively gamers at 20.82.

That stated, consultants advised us that whereas her averages will not be as excessive as her faculty stats, Clark will stay an efficient scorer within the WNBA and her assists numbers must be just like those at Iowa. Clark may also have stronger expertise round her, with younger publish gamers equivalent to Aliyah Boston and NaLyssa Smith, who’ve nice fingers and end sturdy on the rim. Fever guards Kelsey Mitchell and Erica Wheeler ought to assist relieve Clark on a number of the strain of scoring and ballhandling.

“Everybody talks about issues getting more durable for her within the WNBA, but it surely’s additionally true that some features of the professional sport will make it simpler for her,” a WNBA basic supervisor stated. “She might be taking part in alongside the most effective gamers she’s ever performed with. You are not going to have the ability to simply key in on her.”

Nonetheless, consultants level out that WNBA defenses might be higher geared up to protect her full court docket, get in her passing lanes, lower off her drives and push her towards publish gamers who will make it robust to get to the rim.

“She has performed towards some good defenses,” a WNBA coach stated, “however no faculty groups have a protection like, say, [the New York Liberty’s] Breanna Stewart and Jonquel Jones, or [the Las Vegas Aces’] A’ja Wilson and Kiah Stokes within the paint.”

“I do not suppose Caitlin’s offensive sport has to vary one bit on the subsequent degree. … These bombs, and the specter of pulling up for one each time down the ground, is a key ingredient to Clark’s greatness and recognition.”

One other knowledgeable stated Clark might wrestle when an enormous, fast wing participant switches to protect her on dribble-handoffs, or when she’s aggressively trapped.

“She performs at an ideal tempo, however you continue to might even see groups attempt to pace her up with the ball and attempt to push her towards your rim protector,” a WNBA coach stated.

Ought to Clark preserve capturing her famed emblem 3-pointers, these long-distance photographs which have made her so arduous to protect?

“I do not suppose Caitlin’s offensive sport has to vary one bit on the subsequent degree,” a WNBA analyst stated. “I would like her to take the identical photographs and make the identical passes, with the hopes that her turnover numbers drop over the course of her profession.

“These bombs, and the specter of pulling up for one each time down the ground, is a key ingredient to Clark’s greatness and recognition. It could be foolish to restrict that on the subsequent degree. Her shot vary and ballhandling are keys to manipulating defenses to get teammates open seems. I believe that interprets, too. It would not shock me if she averaged round eight assists per sport her rookie yr.”

What might be Clark’s greatest challenges on protection?

The idea is that this might be Clark’s most troublesome transition as a result of it is usually that approach for rookies. Even guards who come into the WNBA with a powerful fame for protection have a tendency to wish time to regulate to all of the actions they have to defend towards and the pace, power and talent of opponents.

Iowa is not a foul defensive workforce, but it surely’s not the Hawkeye’s greatest side — or Clark’s. There is not any sugar-coating it: Groups will look to select on Clark defensively and expose any weaknesses. Whether or not within the half court docket or in transition, WNBA groups can benefit from youthful defenders in quite a lot of methods.

“You are guarding an ideal participant each night time, but additionally totally different sorts of nice gamers,” a WNBA GM stated. “And it is the quantity of instances you get hit or bumped, like by a number of screens on the identical play. You need to struggle by way of so many various screening conditions at our degree.

“You do not play zone fairly often. So in case you play half-hour a sport, you may need to defend, say, 60 totally different screens within the sport. That is a bodily and psychological adjustment. You need to understand how you defend totally different screening, take heed to your publish gamers — it is quite a lot of communication.”

Clark is 6 toes tall and stronger than she would possibly look. However she’s nonetheless rising into her physique, and opponents will attempt to outmuscle her.

“She’s extraordinarily good and pushed,” a WNBA analyst stated. “The most important problem is simply the bodily play.”

A WNBA coach stated, “She might be put in a pick-and-roll conditions the place groups look to assault her off the bounce. On transition, she should work arduous to remain in entrance of faster, extra skilled guards.”

There’s additionally the totally different type of the professional sport vs. faculty.

“There is a studying curve with terminology and actions,” a WNBA coach stated. “However she’s prepared and has the best mindset.”

play

Caitlin Clark relives record-breaking shot on GMA

Caitlin Clark sits down with Robin Roberts on “Good Morning America” to relive her record-breaking shot vs. Michigan.

How will Clark be accepted within the league?

In any skilled sports activities league, rookies are inclined to have some “Welcome to the large leagues, child” moments. Clark will are available as essentially the most hyped rookie within the WNBA. That is due to the information she has set, the eye she has generated and the truth that NIL adjustments have allowed faculty athletes to have much more publicity by way of endorsements.

It is solely a latest growth that an organization equivalent to Nike might create T-shirts, grasp large murals and have promoting campaigns for a school participant. Clark was a part of the primary era of school athletes to learn from NIL. However all of that additionally places a goal on her again.

“You are going to have veterans who simply wish to show to a brand new younger ‘it’ participant that, ‘Hey, this league is hard,'” a WNBA GM stated. “I imply, Sabrina Ionescu went by way of it. Kelsey Plum went by way of it. Virtually each participant that is new and hyped like that is going to undergo that.

“Her teammates will do what they will to assist her; it is of their greatest curiosity to try this. However a few of it she simply has to get by way of herself.

“There’s loads on the shoulders of a younger guard with decision-making. She’s most likely not going to get [foul] calls that she did in faculty. Opponents will attempt to get in her head. However she’s a fast learner, she strikes effectively with out the ball and I believe folks could also be stunned on the issues she will be able to do off the ball.”

What different features of the WNBA should Clark alter to?

As talked about, Clark’s recognition has soared, and he or she now requires extra safety simply to get out and in of arenas. Safety usually has been a hot-button difficulty within the WNBA in recent times as gamers develop into extra recognizable and the league extra standard.

As a result of the WNBA nonetheless flies largely industrial, there’s the fact of getting Clark by way of airports with out her or her teammates being swarmed, for example.

“The Fever need to be ready,” a WNBA analyst stated. “They will must have extra safety.”

There’s additionally the grind of WNBA journey — lengthy a subject of dialogue and controversy — and the schedule.

“School children get within the rhythm of two video games per week,” one WNBA GM stated. “They do not play 5 video games in eight or 9 days like we do.”

A WNBA analyst stated, “The WNBA schedule may be brutal, particularly highway journeys and back-to-back video games. Solely 4 WNBA gamers [Arike Ogunbowale, Alyssa Thomas, Jewell Loyd and Breanna Stewart] averaged as many or extra minutes of their 2023 season than Caitlin has this faculty marketing campaign [34.1 minutes per game]. Will the Fever need her to be on the court docket that a lot in her rookie marketing campaign?”

Does Clark have a greater likelihood to make the 2024 U.S. Olympic workforce as a result of she’s turning professional?

It will be robust for Clark or any WNBA rookie/faculty participant to make the 12-player squad for the Paris Olympics.

USA Basketball has a historical past of including a WNBA rookie to the Olympic workforce, equivalent to with UConn’s Taurasi in 2004 and Stewart in 2016 and Tennessee’s Candace Parker in 2008. All three of these gamers got here into the league after successful a number of nationwide championships: Taurasi with three, Parker with two and Stewart with 4. Clark made the NCAA last with Iowa final season, falling to LSU, and has one other likelihood on the title this yr. (ESPN at present initiatives Iowa as a No. 2 seed, and the Hawkeyes are nonetheless a candidate for a No. 1 seed relying on what occurs in Champ Week and the Large Ten event.)

However there’s quite a lot of guard expertise with earlier Olympic expertise on the U.S. squad this yr. Discovering a spot for a rookie guard will not be simple.

Lastly, the timing does not work within the favor of somebody nonetheless in faculty now to make the U.S. workforce. The Individuals have their last coaching camp in Cleveland throughout the girls’s Remaining 4 weekend. Anybody taking part in within the Remaining 4 will not be capable to take part. And the Olympic squad is anticipated to be named later in April or early Might, possible earlier than the WNBA season begins. Clark won’t have a chance to make her case on the court docket with different USA Basketball gamers.

She does have USA Basketball expertise and has proved loads in her faculty profession. These issues, plus the prospect to offer her Olympic publicity now to assist with later in her USA Basketball profession, are factors in her favor. So it is not out of the realm of risk. However it might appear Clark’s shot on the 2028 Olympics, when she might be 26 and in her fifth WNBA season, is extra possible.