The New York Rangers had the NHL’s finest regular-season file. The Carolina Hurricanes completed instantly of their rearview mirror, three factors again — and objects within the mirror are nearer than they seem.
“The Rangers had been the most effective crew, and we had been on their heels all yr,” Carolina coach Rod Brind’Amour mentioned. “You gotta get by way of the most effective in some unspecified time in the future, so may as nicely have at it now.”
They meet within the second spherical of the Stanley Cup playoffs, after the Rangers swept the Washington Capitals and the Hurricanes eradicated the New York Islanders in 5 video games. Recreation 1 of their collection is Sunday (4 p.m. ET, ABC/ESPN+).
The final time these groups collided was within the second spherical of the 2022 playoffs, a collection the Rangers gained in seven video games. Middle Vincent Trocheck was on that Hurricanes crew, scoring three targets within the collection. He is now a key ahead on the Rangers.
“It was a battle. However it’s two utterly completely different groups now. Loads of new guys since I have been there,” he mentioned. “However nonetheless the identical fashion of hockey [in Carolina].”
One fixed is Brind’Amour behind the Hurricanes bench. He and Rangers coach Peter Laviolette have a singular historical past: In 2006, Laviolette coached the Hurricanes to the Stanley Cup … and Brind’Amour was his captain.
The similarities between these titans of the East do not finish there. Listed below are 5 issues that might swing this extremely tight collection in both course.
Can the Rangers thrive at 5-on-5?
By now, the Rangers’ vulnerabilities at 5-on-5 play are canon. We wrote about them in December. We wrote about them once more in April.
They did little to dispel these issues towards the Capitals, with a 38.8% anticipated targets share at 5-on-5 of their sweep. However rating results had been a giant a part of that disparity, particularly on offense: The Rangers had been tied for simply 13 minutes and 50 seconds within the collection and trailed for simply 17 seconds at 5-on-5.
New York is taken into account an underdog by many on this collection, a notion that tracks to how middling it’s when it’s not on particular groups, mixed with how dominant the Hurricanes have been at 5-on-5. Carolina earned 59.5% of the shot makes an attempt within the common season, finest within the league. They had been second in anticipated targets share (56.9%), whereas the Rangers had been twenty second total (49%). That is been a trademark of Brind’Amour’s groups.
It ought to be famous that the Rangers have improved at 5-on-5 (51.8% anticipated targets share) since including Jack Roslovic and Alex Wennberg to the lineup on the commerce deadline.
In fact, the Hurricanes had been nonetheless rolling at a 59.3% anticipated targets share after the deadline themselves.
“On the subject of the way you run your offense, you must have a look at how a crew defends,” Laviolette mentioned. “It does change a little bit bit for me primarily based on what the D-zone protection is doing.”
Beneath Laviolette, the Rangers have performed a troublesome, simplified recreation that includes fast puck motion. That is helped them discover higher outcomes than final season, after they had been overwhelmed by the velocity of a crew such because the New Jersey Devils, who eradicated them within the first spherical.
Carolina additionally strikes the puck quick, nevertheless it strikes its skates sooner.
“It is simply quick hockey. They will swarm at occasions. They’ll get going, and you’ve got simply type of bought to maintain your cool in your personal zone and get the puck out and dwell to battle one other day. They arrive in waves,” Rangers defenseman Jacob Trouba mentioned.
Brind’Amour felt that the 5-on-5 battle was going to be a decent one defensively. “They offer you no room, as a result of they seem to be a good crew,” he mentioned.
One wild card for the Rangers: Middle Filip Chytil, who’s been training with the crew however hasn’t performed since Nov. 2 on account of a suspected concussion. He had 4 targets in seven video games towards Carolina in 2022, all of them at 5-on-5.
This collection options two beginning goaltenders who’ve hit their strides on the proper time.
Even because the Rangers had been stacking wins, Shesterkin was inconsistent earlier within the season, resulting in backup Jonathan Fast getting 26 begins. However Shesterkin had a .918 save share and 5.9 targets saved above common in his 14 video games because the NHL commerce deadline.
Following a 4-1-0 begin, medical doctors found a blood clotting problem affecting Andersen. He missed 49 video games over a four-month span. Following his return to the lineup, Andersen posted a 9-1-0 file, 1.30 goals-against common, .951 save share and three shutouts. He led the NHL with 11.6 targets saved above common in that span, per Pure Stat Trick.
Andersen was named a finalist for the Masterton Trophy awarded “to the participant who finest exemplifies the qualities of perseverance, sportsmanship and dedication to hockey.”
Shesterkin had higher numbers within the first spherical with a .931 save share and a 1.75 goals-against common. Andersen had a .912 save share with a 2.25 GAA. Shesterkin confronted extra high-danger shot makes an attempt per 60 minutes (7.47) than did Andersen (6.6), however each netminders noticed their groups preserve the warmth off of them at even power.
Andersen misplaced his solely begin towards the Rangers this season, however stopped 24 of 26 pictures. Shesterkin was 2-1 towards the Hurricanes with a .915 save share and one shutout.
In fact, when discussing the Hurricanes, it is by no means only one goalie within the dialog. Rookie Pyotr Kochetkov began 40 video games for the Canes within the common season, posting a .911 save share. He confronted the Rangers twice in that 2022 collection.
“There shall be time when we’ll depend on everybody on this crew and he’ll be part of that,” Andersen mentioned.
Will a revamped Carolina offense put it over?
Brind’Amour has coached the Hurricanes because the 2018-19 season. They’ve made the convention finals twice since then, together with final season, after they had been swept by the Florida Panthers in 4 straight one-goal video games.
That encapsulated a frequent postseason problem for the Hurricanes: For all of their puck possession and shot makes an attempt, they’ve usually been unable to conjure up a purpose at a important time to swing a recreation or a collection. It has been one of many starker variations between the Rangers and the Hurricanes: Regardless of New York’s common play at 5-on-5, it finishes probabilities it creates extra effectively than Carolina.
The Hurricanes have historically not chased high-profile offensive leases on the NHL commerce deadline. That modified this season after they gained the derby for Pittsburgh Penguins pending free agent winger Jake Guentzel. He is an elite top-line expertise who drives play and finishes probabilities. He is additionally been one of the vital efficient playoff performers within the NHL over the previous a number of seasons, with 62 factors in 63 video games, together with 4 factors in 5 video games towards the Islanders.
Carolina additionally added former Capitals middle Evgeny Kuznetsov on the deadline. After seven factors in 20 regular-season video games, he had 4 factors in 5 video games within the first spherical.
Guentzel was plugged onto the Hurricanes’ high line with Sebastian Aho and Andrei Svechnikov.
Ask across the crew and the truth that Svechnikov is on this collection is likely to be extra essential than any commerce deadline pickup. He had 5 factors in 5 video games towards the Islanders after lacking the postseason in 2023 on account of an ACL tear. He is a difference-maker.
Can the Panarin line degree up?
Artemi Panarin blamed himself for the Rangers’ first-round exit final season, tallying simply two assists in seven video games and skating to a minus-2 score. He refocused within the offseason, symbolically shaving his head, and returned to have a profession yr: 120 factors in 82 video games, together with 49 targets.
In his return to the playoffs, Panarin was stable: two targets and an help in 4 video games. They Rangers had such a bonus towards the overmatched Capitals that they actually did not want Panarin to hold them. That possible adjustments towards the Hurricanes, given how tight this collection shall be performed.
However that is not simply on Panarin. His line with Trocheck and Alexis Lafreniere had as many scoring probabilities at 5-on-5 as they surrendered in 4 video games towards the Capitals (20). They had been barely underwater in anticipated targets share (49%). The Rangers want this line to be higher than one which trades probabilities with opponents.
The particular groups stalemate?
The Rangers feed off their energy play, which ranked third within the common season (26.4%). They used it to shut out three of their 4 victories towards the Capitals, going 6-for-16 within the opening spherical. To not be outdone was their penalty kill, which ranked No. 3 within the common season (84.5%) and did not permit a Capitals power-play purpose in three of the 4 video games. Actually, that they had as many short-handed targets because the Capitals had power-play targets (2) within the sweep.
New York would have a particular groups benefit over anybody within the playoffs.
Nicely, nearly anybody.
The Hurricanes had the most effective penalty kill (86.4%) and second finest energy play (26.9%) within the common season. Within the first spherical towards the Islanders, the Canes went 5-for-15 with the person benefit — though they did permit three power-play targets on 11 alternatives to the Islanders.
“As you get deeper within the playoffs, it will get an increasing number of essential,” Trouba mentioned. “All of the groups at this level have good energy performs and good penalty kills.”
Again of their 2022 collection, the Rangers’ energy play was the distinction, with seven targets vs. simply two tallies for the Hurricanes. However that Carolina energy play wasn’t practically pretty much as good as this one, with Guentzel (11 power-play factors in 22 video games with the Hurricanes) now on the highest unit.
This is likely to be essentially the most evenly matchup of the collection — at the very least on paper — so to have it tip in both course might tip the collection as nicely.