49ers-Chiefs: Tremendous Bowl LVIII predictions, picks, odds

The San Francisco 49ers and the Kansas Metropolis Chiefs are formally headed to Tremendous Bowl LVIII, which kicks off Sunday, Feb. 11, at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas.

With two weeks till the massive day, we’re taking an early have a look at what you’ll be able to anticipate within the matchup. Stephen Holder units it up with what to know, and our NFL Nation reporters — Nick Wagoner and Adam Teicher — look nearer at every staff. Seth Walder crunches the numbers to offer you some key stats to know, Matt Bowen dives into the sport plan with a key matchup and Eric Moody pulls out an X issue. Aaron Schatz solutions large questions surrounding the ultimate sport of the season, and Jason Reid explores the quarterback matchup. Let’s dive in.

Word: Recreation traces are by way of ESPN BET. Predictions are from ESPN’s Soccer Energy Index (FPI).

Soar to:
49ers | Chiefs | Key stats
Matchup keys | Huge questions
Quarterbacks | Betting

When: Sunday, Feb. 11, 6:30 p.m. ET on CBS
The place: Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas | Tickets
Opening line: Decide ’em (O/U 47.5)

Few groups have grow to be extra synonymous with the Tremendous Bowl than the Chiefs and 49ers. Kansas Metropolis is headed to its sixth Tremendous Bowl, together with a outstanding fourth prior to now 5 seasons. If that is not a dynasty, what’s? For the 49ers, they’re making an eighth look within the Tremendous Bowl, however have an opportunity to win their first since 1994.

This matchup of Tremendous Bowl LIV after the 2019 season, received by the Chiefs, gives an opportunity at immortality for all concerned. However, extra particularly, it offers the Chiefs the chance to proceed a run that has been not often seen within the NFL. Profitable back-to-back Tremendous Bowls has confirmed extremely tough, however the Chiefs can accomplish the feat for the primary time because the 2003-04 Patriots did it practically twenty years in the past. In the meantime, quarterback Patrick Mahomes turns into the youngest QB to begin his fourth Tremendous Bowl and coach Andy Reid prepares for his fifth Tremendous Bowl, trailing solely Invoice Belichick (9) and Don Shula (6) in appearances.

For the Niners, it is an opportunity to lastly break by way of after advancing to the NFL Championship Recreation seven occasions since 2011 with no single Tremendous Bowl title. As nice because the franchise has been, the fact is it has been 29 seasons because the 49ers final received a championship, with Steve Younger successful MVP in Tremendous Bowl XXIX. Brock Purdy is not any Steve Younger, however successful his first Tremendous Bowl can be a giant first step for the younger 49ers quarterback. — Holder

Common season: 12-5 | NFC seed: No. 1

Purpose for hope: Skilled star energy. No staff in soccer has a much bigger galaxy of stars than the Niners. They’d a league-high 9 gamers chosen to the Professional Bowl, 12 extra chosen as alternates and 7 gamers who earned first or second-team All Professional honors. What’s extra, the Niners have loads of gamers and coaches who’ve participated in deep playoff runs, together with eight gamers who performed significant snaps in Tremendous Bowl LIV. Once they’re rolling, the Niners seemed each bit the a part of a juggernaut, successful their 12 regular-season video games by a median of 19 factors, second finest within the league.

Purpose for concern: Latest historical past. The 49ers do not precisely have fond recollections of enjoying the Chiefs on a giant stage. The Niners misplaced to the Chiefs of their final Tremendous Bowl look 4 years in the past. And whereas the Niners have not performed the Chiefs since Oct. 23, 2022, they misplaced by three touchdowns that day and haven’t defeated Kansas Metropolis in a sport with Mahomes at quarterback. In concept, none of that ought to stop the Niners from turning the tables however there’s one thing to be mentioned for the concept the Chiefs are merely a nasty matchup for them. — Wagoner

play

Brock Purdy’s large Third-down scramble units up late 49ers TD

The 49ers take a double-digit lead as Brock Purdy escapes stress to scramble for a primary down earlier than Elijah Mitchell punches in a landing.

Common season: 11-6 | AFC seed: No. 3

Purpose for hope: They’ve Mahomes and he performs at his finest within the postseason. In his final six postseason video games, Mahomes has accomplished 70% of his passes with a yards-per-attempt common of seven.0 and 11 touchdowns with out throwing an interception. And the remainder of the offense has proven indicators of life not too long ago. They’re getting extra large performs and had a season-high eight performs of greater than 20 yards within the divisional spherical win over the Payments.

Purpose for concern: Sloppy offensive play. The Chiefs in the course of the common season led the league in dropped passes, have been second in offensive penalties and tied for seventh in turnovers. They’ve received within the playoffs regardless of their sloppiness. Contained in the pink zone alone within the wild-card win over the Dolphins, they dropped a move, botched a shotgun snap and had a penalty that worn out a TD on three completely different drives, main them to kick area targets. Mecole Hardman Jr.’s goal-line fumble within the divisional spherical allowed the Payments to remain shut. How for much longer can the Chiefs proceed to beat good groups by enjoying this fashion? — Teicher

Stats to know

San Francisco’s plethora of playmakers is a large cause why the staff will not be solely within the Tremendous Bowl, however has boasted the very best offense all season lengthy. ESPN’s receiver monitoring metrics present the domination, as each single one among their prime targets leads their place in a minimum of one class. Brandon Aiyuk leads all receivers in catch rating (96) and total rating (98), Deebo Samuel leads all receivers in YAC rating (83), George Kittle leads all tight ends in total rating (84) and Christian McCaffrey leads all working backs in catch rating (99). Possibly a protection can take away one among them, but it surely’s virtually not possible to cease all of them.

Mahomes had the worst statistic common season of his profession in 2023, rating nineteenth in QBR on passing performs. So how did the Chiefs make it to the Tremendous Bowl? Nicely, throwing is simply a part of the best way Mahomes impacts the offense. And in 2023, enjoying with the worst receiving corps within the league by way of RTM’s catch rating, it is the opposite sorts of performs the place Mahomes has excelled. He has prevented sacks (second-lowest sack fee behind Josh Allen) and scrambled extremely nicely (second-most scramble EPA, once more behind Allen). After all, a high-end Kansas Metropolis protection has made all the distinction, too. — Walder

Contained in the matchup

Chiefs LB Nick Bolton vs. 49ers RB Christian McCaffrey

The run sport is a foundational a part of Kyle Shanahan’s offense, so I am specializing in Bolton’s means to restrict McCaffrey in early-down conditions. Bolton is fast to key and diagnose and has the play velocity to scrape to the perimeters. That is a vital aspect in opposition to a 49ers unit that can use their formations and movement to achieve quantity benefits to the play aspect. McCaffrey averaged 5.4 yards per carry this season with 44 rushes of 10 or extra yards. He makes this offense go. — Bowen

X issue: Isiah Pacheco, RB, Chiefs

Pacheco has grow to be the undisputed chief of the Chiefs backfield, and his workload displays it. Over the course of six profession postseason video games, he has averaged 18.7 touches and 90.5 complete yards. There’s a notion that the 49ers’ protection is among the many finest within the league. However of their path to the Tremendous Bowl, they’ve given up a number of speeding yards to working backs similar to Aaron Jones, David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs. Pacheco is the second Chiefs participant with a speeding landing in 4 consecutive playoff video games. His streak might proceed in opposition to the 49ers behind a Chiefs offensive line that has been excellent this postseason. — Moody

Answering large questions

What is the largest distinction with Steve Wilks as 49ers defensive coordinator?

The distinction for the 49ers’ protection this season has been a better wrestle with stopping the run. The 49ers ranked fifteenth in run protection DVOA in the course of the common season after rating second and first within the earlier two seasons.

The largest difficulty has been stopping runs that get downfield slightly than stopping runs proper up entrance. The 49ers’ run cease fee is identical because it was final season, 32%. Nevertheless, in 2022 the 49ers have been the very best protection within the NFL stopping second-level runs (5-10 yards) and open-field runs (11 yards or extra). This season, they rank seventh and twenty first in these two classes, respectively.

Final season, the one place the 49ers had an issue in opposition to the run was brief yardage. They allowed a 71% conversion fee on these runs (third down, fourth down or objective line with 1-2 yards to go). This season, they allowed a 79% conversion fee on these runs.

Did Travis Kelce take a step again from his common Corridor-of-Fame play within the common season?

Sure, completely. However he hasn’t taken 20 steps again into the land of “common tight finish.” He is nonetheless top-of-the-line within the enterprise, even when he could not match his earlier superior performances.

This season, I launched a brand new model of my receiving DYAR metric primarily based on routes slightly than targets. It does a greater job of valuing the flexibility of receivers to get open and entice targets on a gradual foundation. Kelce led the NFL in 2022 at 642 yards above substitute. No different tight finish was above 450. This season, Kelce led the league once more, however solely with 399 DYAR. Kittle was proper behind him at 395.

ESPN’s receiver monitoring metrics inform the same story of a lesser, however nonetheless robust, 2023 season. Final season, Kelce was second behind Kittle with a 75 RTM rating. This season, Kelce dropped to seventh with a 58 RTM rating. His open rating and YAC rating dropped barely, and his catch rating dropped considerably.

We all the time needed to anticipate some decline from Kelce this season. The person is 34 years outdated! He simply set the report for receiving yards by a good finish at age 34 or increased with 984. Tony Gonzalez was the one different tight finish to have a minimum of 850 yards at this age. (He did it 3 times.)

Nevertheless, up to now within the 2023 playoffs, Kelce has caught 16 of 17 targets for 191 yards and three touchdowns. That is definitely higher than his efficiency in the course of the common season. — Schatz

Quarterback matchup

Purdy vs. Mahomes

Chosen by the 49ers with the ultimate decide of the 2022 NFL draft, Purdy was that draft’s Mr. Irrelevant. However Purdy has been something however irrelevant to the 49ers. He has been extremely environment friendly and at occasions spectacular whereas directing the offense. In solely 26 profession begins (together with playoffs), Purdy has a report of 21-5. That is a glowing .808 successful share. By making sound selections with the soccer, Purdy rapidly earned the belief of coach Kyle Shanahan and the staff’s many gifted playmakers on offense. With the 49ers trailing the Lions by 17 factors at halftime within the NFC Championship Recreation, Purdy stayed cool and led the 49ers’ spectacular comeback victory that places them again within the Tremendous Bowl for the second time in 5 seasons.

Already an all-time nice, Mahomes will likely be vying to grow to be solely the fifth quarterback in NFL historical past to have a minimum of three Tremendous Bowl championships, following Tom Brady (six), Joe Montana (4), Terry Bradshaw (4) and Troy Aikman (three). Mahomes, Brady, Peyton Manning and Montana are the one QBs to have a minimum of two Tremendous Bowl championships and two Related Press MVP awards. For the sixth consecutive season with Mahomes as their beginning signal-caller, the Chiefs reached the AFC Championship Recreation. The one streak longer is the New England Patriots’ outstanding run of eight in a row from 2011-18. — Reid

Betting nugget

The Chiefs are the ninth staff prior to now 20 seasons to tug off upset wins within the divisional spherical and convention championship. And in response to ESPN Stats and Info, six of the earlier eight went on to win the Tremendous Bowl. General, the Chiefs are 12-8 in opposition to the unfold this season, whereas the 49ers are 9-10. Since 2001, underdogs are 11-11 outright and 15-7 ATS within the Tremendous Bowl.