4 takeaways from Tuesday’s Lakers-Warriors recreation

A possible Western Convention play-in event preview unfolded Tuesday evening because the Golden State Warriors traveled to Crypto.com Enviornment to tackle the Los Angeles Lakers of their ultimate residence recreation of the season.

This was the fourth time these two groups have confronted off this season, with the Warriors claiming the ultimate regular-season matchup 134-120. The Warriors are actually a half-game behind the Lakers with three video games left.

However these two Western Convention foes are not any strangers to high-stakes video games, and with the common season wrapping up Sunday and the play-in event on the horizon, all eyes might be turned towards this epic potential postseason battle.

From matchup X-factors to playoff ceilings, NBA insiders Kevin Pelton, Ramona Shelburne and Bobby Marks reply the largest questions off tonight’s recreation as Stephen Curry and LeBron James attempt to lead their groups to the 2023-24 NBA playoffs.

1. What is the largest lesson to take from Tuesday’s recreation?

Ramona Shelburne: The Lakers cannot cease anybody with out Anthony Davis in the course of their protection. The Warriors put up 70 factors within the first half, 104 by means of three quarters and completed with 134, attending to the rim seemingly at will with out the specter of Davis on the again line. The identical factor occurred Sunday in opposition to Minnesota when Davis went out with a watch damage. He is been remarkably sturdy this season, however it has actually harm the Lakers to not have him these previous two video games as they battle to remain out of subsequent week’s 9/10 play-in recreation.

Bobby Marks: No Davis and no likelihood. As Ramona talked about, the Lakers’ protection was a revolving door with out Davis on the court docket. After profitable eight of their 9 video games heading into Sunday, the Lakers have now dropped two in a row and any probabilities of getting out of the play-in are slim. The opposite takeaway is to not low cost Golden State in a playoff-type atmosphere. The Warriors would nonetheless should beat the Lakers and both the Suns or Kings if the season ended immediately simply to achieve the primary spherical. However the Warriors performed with a way of urgency, evidenced by their veterans (Curry, Klay Thompson, Andrew Wiggins and Draymond Inexperienced) scoring a mixed 82 factors.

Kevin Pelton: Golden State could be very a lot alive to keep away from the tenth seed within the West play-in event and must win two video games on the street simply to make the playoffs. Due to a 3-1 collection win over the Lakers, the Warriors now maintain the head-to-head tiebreaker and are even within the loss column, that means they’re going to probably end ninth and host a rematch subsequent week if each groups win out — pending extra advanced multiteam ties.

Each the Warriors and the Lakers have only one recreation remaining in opposition to an opponent with one thing to play for — the New Orleans Pelicans — who go to the Warriors on Friday earlier than internet hosting the Lakers on Sunday. That places New Orleans in an fascinating place to assist dictate the place the Lakers end, related as a result of the Pelicans maintain the Lakers’ first-round draft decide until they decide to defer it till 2025. (After all, New Orleans has its personal playoff seeding to handle, and the Pelicans certainly wish to keep in sixth to keep away from coping with the play-in themselves.)

A Lakers win would have all however doomed Golden State to tenth within the West. The Warriors’ win makes the ultimate 5 days of the common season that rather more fascinating.

2. Who’s extra harmful in a one-game state of affairs: LeBron or Steph?

Shelburne: This can be a fairly high-class drawback for any crew that has both participant and only one recreation to win. Simply think about in the event that they have been on the identical crew, like what was mentioned between Lakers and Warriors possession earlier than the commerce deadline. On this case, James will get the slight nod as a result of he is on the ball a lot and might management the sport himself. Curry wants somebody to run the Warriors’ offense with and may be roughed up by larger, bodily groups. However he is nonetheless probably the most electrical offensive participant on the market when he is within the midst of one among his flurries.

Marks: James and Curry have every performed in two play-in video games for the reason that event began in 2021. James is 2-0 whereas Curry’s Golden State crew misplaced twice in 2021. We noticed the magic in Curry final 12 months in a winner-take-all Recreation 7 at Sacramento. However that was final 12 months, and I belief James and, most significantly, his Lakers teammates, in a winner-take-all this 12 months. In video games determined within the clutch this season, the Lakers are 23-9, tied with Dallas for the perfect profitable proportion. In the meantime, Golden State has performed a league-high 45 such video games and is one recreation under .500 in them.

Pelton: Can I reply ‘sure’? As Bobby notes, Curry is lower than a 12 months faraway from one of many nice one-game performances in NBA historical past. In the meantime, James has made a second profession of parsing out his power to peak within the largest moments, as we noticed throughout final 12 months’s run from the play-in to the convention finals. Finally, I might decide James due to his capability to manage a recreation at each ends when he dials up his defensive depth.

3. Which participant on these two groups, apart from LeBron and Steph, is the largest X-factor heading into the play-in and doubtlessly the playoffs?

Pelton: Klay Thompson. When Thompson is making photographs, the Warriors nonetheless appear like contenders. Regardless of dropping his greatest recreation of the season by recreation rating, per Basketball-Reference.com, Golden State is 8-1 when Thompson posts a recreation rating of 20 or higher — together with Tuesday evening. Through the 12 video games through which Thompson has posted a recreation rating worse than 5, the Warriors are 2-10. That may have been unhealthy information in a matchup in opposition to the Lakers given the best way Thompson has struggled in opposition to them traditionally, together with 34% taking pictures in final 12 months’s playoff loss, however he has totaled 53 factors on 19-of-31 taking pictures in his previous two matchups in L.A.

Shelburne: I am going with Draymond Inexperienced as a result of the Warriors merely aren’t the Warriors when he is not at his greatest on each ends of the court docket. He’s the anchor of their protection and the engine of their offense. He has additionally shot the ball effectively sufficient from behind the 3-point arc (39.5%) that groups should respect him — thereby creating house for Curry and others. Tuesday evening his 5 3-pointers within the first half set the tone for the Warriors. He is doing all this now with a balky decrease again that is saved him out of a number of video games not too long ago.

Marks: The apparent reply is Anthony Davis, contemplating he’s the perfect participant on both roster not named James or Curry. However D’Angelo Russell is the X-factor for the Lakers on how far they advance. Russell is the engine of a beginning lineup (Austin Reaves, James, Rui Hachimura and Davis) that’s 16-6 and a plus-6.3 in factors per 100 possessions. The Lakers are 15-3 in video games Russell scores 25-plus factors and 9-2 when he makes an attempt 11 3-pointers or extra. However in 27 profession playoff video games, Russell is taking pictures 38.9% from the sector, 32.9% on 3s and averaging 14.1 factors.

BONUS! What’s every crew’s playoff ceiling in the event that they get in?

Shelburne: I picked the Warriors to win all of it at the start of the season and nonetheless suppose they will, with the correct draw. In different phrases — in the event that they make the playoffs and keep away from Denver for so long as potential. That goes for the Lakers as effectively. Each groups have the expertise and playoff expertise to beat anybody. After all, avoiding Denver is not actually a technique, and I do not see how both crew takes down the defending champions in a seven-game collection.

Marks: It is dependent upon the first-round opponent. A Denver first-round collection, and the Lakers or Warriors will begin trip in late April. Minnesota will definitely current a problem, particularly if Karl-Anthony Cities returns from his left knee damage. The Lakers have been 1-2 in opposition to the Timberwolves, however a type of losses was by two factors. Golden State was winless within the three matchups.

The beginning 5 in Oklahoma Metropolis has by no means performed in a playoff collection collectively, and inexperience might be an element if the Thunder draw both crew. Getting into the playoffs, Oklahoma is the second-youngest crew (solely behind Orlando) in gamers averaging 20-plus minutes. Starters Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Luguentz Dort and reserves Gordon Hayward, Bismack Biyombo and Mike Muscala are the one gamers with playoff expertise. The Lakers have been 3-1 in opposition to Oklahoma Metropolis and Golden State was 1-3. Because the play-in event began in 2021, no crew ending ninth or tenth (Memphis reached the primary spherical in 2021) has superior previous the primary spherical.

Pelton: The ceiling is decided by once they run into the Nuggets. I might like to see one other Denver-Golden State collection after their 2022 matchup, throughout which the Nuggets have been with out each Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. However the defending champs swept all seven matchups in opposition to these two groups and can be huge favorites.

Due to their playoff expertise and star energy, the Lakers and Warriors would have a practical likelihood in some other potential first-round matchup — and presumably within the second spherical if Denver is on the opposite facet of the bracket. Let’s be clear that that is totally different from final season, when the Lakers reached the convention finals with out beating any crew that received greater than 51 video games. This 12 months’s path would possibly require beating two groups with higher information than the 2022-23 Grizzlies (51-31).