2024 Tremendous Bowl last-minute bets — props, picks, extra

If I am putting bets on a weekend, I am not full sport spreads or totals. These are environment friendly markets which have been guess into all week. As an alternative, I am in search of the obscure. It is my specialty, anyway. It is what I construct statistical fashions round to attempt to discover an edge. If there’s a bonus to be discovered now, it is in small markets.

So come alongside for the experience and see how we fare diving deep into some last-minute Tremendous Bowl props.

Odds by ESPN BET.

Sport props

First Accepted Penalty: Any Different Penalty (+350)

That is the “area” choice, so we’re betting on it being one thing apart from: holding (+275), false begin (+325), offside/encroachment/impartial zone infraction (+325), defensive move interference (+800), delay of sport (+1500), offensive move interference (+2000) or no accepted penalties (+5000).

That leaves lots for area, although. Assume: roughing the passer, intentional grounding, too many males on the sphere, facemasks, unsportsmanlike conduct, and plenty of extra. These “different” penalties made up 30% of accepted penalties throughout the league this yr and 29% for these two groups. Despite the fact that some are particular groups penalties (and thus much less prone to be first), I nonetheless assume that is the worth decide. Plus: Invoice Vinovich’s video games had the bottom offensive holding charge (the favourite) of any referee this yr. He will not have his entire crew with him for the Tremendous Bowl, however the referee himself performs a job in holding calls.

Below 4.5 complete sacks (-150)

I wish to be fading sacks on this sport, with Patrick Mahomes being probably the greatest quarterbacks at avoiding sacks (3.7% sack charge) and Brock Purdy higher than common and a great probability neither crew pulls out means forward. Sadly, many of the worth has been sapped from this prop: it was -130 as lately as Wednesday. I make it -162 so there’s nonetheless a little bit left, so far as my numbers are involved.

I additionally preferred zero sacks within the sport as a longshot at 40-1 (I make it 33-1) however on Thursday night the value dropped to 25-1, so it is now not a guess for the aim of this text. However I am mentioning simply in case the value jumps again up or is accessible for extra, elsewhere.

Participant sacks

Javon Hargrave beneath 0.5 sacks (-280)

See: above. Hargrave is an effective participant who had 7.0 sacks and a 16% move rush win charge at defensive sort out — within the high 10 for the place. However! To be able to get a sack within the Tremendous Bowl he has to chase down Patrick Mahomes, who has not simply the aforementioned 3.7% sack charge, however solely a 12.6% sack charge when pressured (each stats second solely to Josh Allen). I make Hargrave’s beneath -385.

Chase Younger over 0.5 sacks (+325)

I am clearly down on sacks throughout the board, however on Chase the quantity has gone too far. Younger’s taking part in time diminished when he was traded to the 49ers and he was extensively criticized for a scarcity of effort on a Jahmyr Gibbs landing run within the NFC Championship Sport. Will that result in a decreased function within the Tremendous Bowl? Perhaps, however quietly Younger has truly performed much more within the postseason, taking part in 67% and 78% of the crew’s defensive snaps within the divisional spherical and convention championship, respectively. So on condition that, I am keen to roll with my mannequin, which costs Younger at +208 to go over half a sack.

See additionally:

Arik Armstead beneath 0.5 sacks (-280)

Tackles

Javon Kinlaw over 0.5 tackles + assists (-140)

Kinlaw’s taking part in time has dropped within the postseason, however I manually adjusted the mannequin to anticipate postseason charge of play to proceed for the Tremendous Bowl — and I am nonetheless means over right here, with 2.7 projected tackles + assists. Despite the fact that the Chiefs have Patrick Mahomes, the 49ers are weaker on the bottom so the Chiefs will seemingly make an effort to run the ball at the least some. Additionally bear in mind: many of the season the 49ers had been favored and profitable — leading to fewer rush makes an attempt from their opponents. However the Tremendous Bowl is predicted to be shut, once more that means extra potential rushes. Every a type of is a sort out alternative for Kinlaw, if he is on the sphere.

See additionally:

Fred Warner beneath 8.5 tackles + assists (-135)

Defensive interceptions

Trent McDuffie beneath 0.5 interceptions (-1000)

That is the least attractive guess I’ve put on this column all yr. However you realize what? We have been dedicated to following the info and my fashions all yr, so why cease now — even to doubtlessly win only a tenth of a unit? I make McDuffie’s beneath –1216 — I am a little bit decrease on Purdy’s interceptions possibilities (see under!) — and so I am rolling with it.

QB interceptions

Brock Purdy beneath 0.5 interceptions (-105)

I feel Purdy’s interception prop is influenced by recency: he threw an interception within the NFC Championship Sport and has thrown 5 picks previously 4 video games. However I would moderately take the longer lens view: Purdy has not thrown an interception in 11 of 18 video games this season. And whereas it is a shut unfold, Purdy’s crew is favored and that counts for one thing when it comes to interception avoidance. I make the beneath -125.

Cross completions

Brock Purdy beneath 20.5 completions (-105)

The Chiefs have a great protection however they actually have a great move protection. San Francisco ought to be capable to run on them and run lots, draining the clock and taking move makes an attempt and completions from Purdy. Plus, I lean 49ers within the sport (as does the unfold) and in the event that they get out to a lead that can solely additional San Francisco’s want to run the ball. My mannequin forecasts 19.5 completions for Purdy.

Outcomes

Convention championship week

QB interceptions: 0-1 (-1.0 models)
Cross completions: 1-0 (+0.9 models)
Sacks: 2-2-1 (-0.5 models)
Tackles: 1-2 (-1.3 models)
Sport props: 0-1 (-1.0 models)
General: 4-6-1 (-2.9 models)

Futures resolved (Will Anderson Jr. DROY, Guess in Week 5): 1-0 (+8.5 models)

2023 season

QB interceptions: 21-26 (-1.3 models)
Cross completions: 11-11 (-0.9 models)
Cross makes an attempt: 11-11 (-2.3 models)
Receptions: 11-2 (+7.4 models)
Sacks: 95-64-12 (+23.2 models)
Tackles: 76-68-1 (+5.7 models)
Defensive interceptions: 0-3 (-3.0 models)
D/ST touchdowns: 2-19 (-3.5 models)
Teasers: 2-2 (+0.4 models)
Weekly specials: 0-3 (-3.0 models)
Sport props: 0-3 (-3.0 models)
Award futures: 1-0 (+8.5 models)
General: 230-212-13 (+28.2 models)