Spring has sprung, the flowers are blooming, the birds are chirping. And on condition that we’re per week out from the 2024 NFL draft, it is time for my favourite column of the offseason. Sure, right now it is time for my annual mock draft that consists totally of trades. For every of the 32 picks in Spherical 1, I will provide you with a commerce which may — emphasis on would possibly — make sense.
A lot of why trades happen has to do with the distinctive universe through which the draft exists. If the Cardinals determined to maneuver on from quarterback Kyler Murray final offseason, they would not have traded the No. 3 decide to the Texans for edge rusher Will Anderson Jr. Which implies the Texans would possibly as an alternative have made a deal at No. 5 with the Seahawks, who would not have ended up with cornerback Devon Witherspoon. After which perhaps the Lions would have drafted Witherspoon, and the Jets would have ended up taking working again Jahmyr Gibbs. One small change impacts your entire draft.
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Right here, although, we’ve 32 trades that every happen in their very own universe, so the commerce you see for the primary decide would not roll over to the following one and the one after that. I’ve tried to determine a novel set of circumstances for every decide through which a deal would possibly make sense. A workforce in love with a selected participant sees him fall to a spot the place different groups could be able to pounce. A corporation that wants a quarterback falls in love with Drake Maye (North Carolina) or J.J. McCarthy (Michigan) and decides to make a large transfer up the board. A workforce in want of a quarterback would not like its choices and decides to attempt to go the alternative means. After which, after all, I’ve additionally tried so as to add a little bit of perception into how executives working these drafts have operated previously by way of buying and selling up or down.
To my finest means, I’ve used the Jimmy Johnson chart and historic comps for what groups have paid to maneuver up and down to tell the prices of those offers. Lots of the picks you see under shall be notated as one thing like “2-37,” which interprets to the workforce’s second-round choice and the thirty seventh decide total on this draft. Future picks have been referenced with their yr connected. I’ve additionally scattered plenty of veterans who may very well be accessible for trades in varied offers, together with a number of star wideouts who may influence draft day.
One veteran who actually is not accessible for commerce is within the combine with the deal I’ve for the primary total decide, which is all the time the toughest deal to make. With per week to go earlier than the draft, the Bears aren’t buying and selling out. Discovering truthful worth on this kind of transfer is nearly not possible, and even when I really feel like I can, that deal is rarely really going to occur. One signal of a good commerce is a deal through which each side say sure. Our first deal is one through which each side would say no and cling up the telephone, however they might accomplish that at the very same time. And after that, we will get on to extra believable offers.
Leap to a commerce involving a veteran:
Brandon Aiyuk | Treylon Burks
Tee Higgins | Justin Jefferson
Trevor Lawrence | Aidan O’Connell
Trevor Penning | Pat Surtain
Courtland Sutton | Payton Turner
Jaguars get: 1-1
Bears get: QB Trevor Lawrence, 2-48, 5-153
Sure, I acknowledge that is an absurd commerce. If we’re looking for fairly truthful worth for each side, although? This makes a minimum of a bit little bit of sense, and it is a deal through which each side may win.
From the Bears’ perspective, they might be touchdown a participant who has already established himself as a Professional Bowl-caliber quarterback when wholesome. Lawrence’s injury-riddled finish to 2023 should not erase what we noticed from him over the prior yr. Between Week 9 of 2022 and Week 9 of 2023, his 63.0 QBR was the ninth-best within the league. He accomplished 69% of his passes, threw 24 landing passes towards six picks and led Jacksonville to a 13-4 document.
Because the No. 1 decide in 2021 and the latest elite quarterback prospect to come back out of faculty earlier than Caleb Williams (USC), there aren’t any issues about Lawrence’s pedigree or means to play at an NFL stage. He’s nonetheless solely 24 and has two years left on his rookie deal, though he’s now eligible for a large extension, which makes him a costlier proposition than drafting Williams right here. On the entire, Lawrence has performed higher than the common first total decide thus far, particularly in the event you write off the City Meyer season as a training catastrophe. That kind of certainty may very well be interesting to the Bears: Lawrence would instantly turn out to be probably the most proficient quarterback they’ve had in generations and would have the potential to turn out to be a Corridor of Famer in Chicago.
Williams’ upside understandably appeals to Bears followers who’ve been speaking themselves into him for months, however there aren’t any ensures he performs in addition to Lawrence has. Williams is actually a lot better-equipped to deal with 2024 than Lawrence was as a rookie, however we cannot know till we really see Williams line up underneath heart. Williams is 22 and has three additional years of price management, which is why the Bears are touchdown additional draft capital together with Lawrence as a part of this deal.
For the Jaguars, this could be recognizing that they’ve primarily wasted most of Lawrence’s three bargain-basement seasons as a starter. The catastrophe of the Meyer season led to a determined second offseason through which they spent excessive so as to add solid-if-unspectacular gamers round Lawrence at receiver. Christian Kirk and Zay Jones had been main upgrades, however Calvin Ridley wasn’t capable of reside as much as expectations, they usually bowed out of bidding for him this offseason after signing Gabe Davis, failing to match Tennessee’s supply. Middling offensive line play hasn’t helped Lawrence keep wholesome. Beginning over with Williams would give the Jags one other likelihood to construct round a quarterback with franchise-passer upside whereas he is nonetheless low-cost.
Is both workforce even going to think about this commerce for a second? After all not. Will every workforce’s followers hate it? In all probability. I feel followers of each groups shall be blindingly enraged by this deal at equal ranges, although, and whereas it will by no means occur, that may be an indication that the commerce is truthful.
Patriots get: 1-2
Commanders get: 1-3, 3-68, 2025 second-round decide, 2025 fourth-round decide
If the Commanders do not have a choice between Jayden Daniels (LSU) and Drake Maye, this could be a method for them to commerce down and amass a significant quantity of additional draft capital whereas nonetheless remaining in place to land one of many two standout quarterbacks. And for the Patriots, this could be a means for them to make sure they land the quarterback of their selecting if they’ve a major choice. The draft capital they’re giving up is rather a lot — it is about what the 49ers despatched to accumulate Christian McCaffrey — nevertheless it’s not very a lot if it means touchdown the proper quarterback.
Why would the Commanders transfer down one spot after they can land the man they really feel barely higher about? These different draft picks will be awfully invaluable. The final time a workforce traded up from No. 3 to No. 2 was 2017, when the Bears moved up in a cope with the 49ers. Chicago selected Mitch Trubisky. The 49ers took Solomon Thomas and landed two third-round picks and a fourth-rounder for his or her troubles. A few the gamers chosen with these picks ended up being much more invaluable than the blokes taken within the high three: The 49ers used one decide on Fred Warner, whereas the Saints traded as much as nab the opposite third-rounder, utilizing it on Alvin Kamara.
Raiders get: 1-3, 2025 fifth-round decide, 2026 third-round decide
Patriots get: 1-13, 2-44, 2025 first-round decide, 2026 first-round decide
This commerce is impressed by a deal one other Boston-based workforce made in a unique sport and the way it set them up for achievement within the years to comply with. In 2013, the Celtics stunningly traded away two of the gamers who led them to an NBA title, delivery off Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett to the Nets. In return, they acquired some wage ballast, three first-round picks and the power to swap first-rounders in 2017.
The Nets had been attempting to speed up their path to rivalry, however the transfer did not work. They gained one playoff collection with Pierce and Garnett earlier than the wheels fell off. The Celtics ended up touchdown a number of top-five picks and turned these picks into Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown and their short-lived dalliance with Kyrie Irving. The deal grew to become a prototype within the NBA, and groups just like the Thunder have used related strikes with first-rounders properly into the long run into constructing groups with oodles of younger expertise.
Now, this is not precisely the identical kind of deal. The Patriots would not be sending a bunch of veteran gamers however as an alternative the No. 3 decide, a range that may probably land them the franchise quarterback they’ve craved since Tom Brady’s departure in 2020. If the Pats assume certainly one of Jayden Daniels, Drake Maye or J.J. McCarthy — whichever passer makes it to No. 3 — is a man they really feel assured about beginning for the following 10 years, there isn’t any commerce available. Draft the quarterback and determine every little thing else out later.
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If director of scouting Eliot Wolf is not certain concerning the quarterbacks on the board at No. 3, although, this can be a commerce that may give the Patriots a chance to reap the benefits of a corporation that could be equally misguided about being one large commerce away from contending. The Raiders went 5-4 with Antonio Pierce as their interim coach, however the roster issues that plagued them in the course of the Jon Gruden and Josh McDaniels eras nonetheless exist. Interim coaches have a historical past of disappointing after getting the full-time function, and Vegas remains to be caught in a division with Patrick Mahomes. I can perceive desirous to take a swing on Maye or McCarthy, however I am unsure the Raiders are a quarterback away. (Then once more, who would have thought the Texans had been a yr in the past?)
Touchdown first-round picks in 2025 and 2026 would imply the Patriots having to cope with some semblance of delayed gratification for shifting down, but when the Raiders are fallacious about Pierce and a quarterback would not propel them ahead, New England may get two top-five picks. It might have two first-rounders in every of the following two drafts, which might be loads of capital to maneuver round for a quarterback if the franchise is not in place to take one.
On this draft, the Patriots may take a swing on a passer on Day 2 (Michael Penix Jr.). With decide Nos. 13, 34, 44 and 68, they might even be in place to maneuver again into the highest 10 to seize a left sort out or extensive receiver, simply because the Cardinals did after they moved out of the No. 3 decide a yr in the past earlier than shifting again as much as draft Paris Johnson Jr.
Vikings get: 1-4, 4-104 (from Cardinals)
Cardinals get: 1-23, 2025 first-round decide (from Vikings), 1-8 (from Falcons)
Falcons get: 1-11 (from Vikings), 3-71 (from Cardinals)
Talking of the Cardinals, let’s put collectively our first three-team commerce by incorporating a transfer through which they commerce down after which transfer again up. It begins with the oft-rumored commerce up by the Vikings, who would probably turn out to be the primary workforce in league historical past to take the fourth quarterback within the high 5. Including an extra first-rounder by paying a premium by way of second-round picks would not actually make sense for Minnesota until a selected commerce associate had an ask in thoughts; even when the Jimmy Johnson chart sees that as a modest loss for the Vikings, GM Kwesi Adofo-Mensah’s different offers inform us he would not actually worth picks internally by that conventional mannequin.
Shifting up would price the Vikings a reasonably penny — three first-round picks. Provided that they do not have second-round picks in 2024 or 2025 or a third-round decide this yr, although, there’s not likely some other means for them to get this deal performed with out together with these future first-rounders. They do land a fourth-rounder again from the Cardinals, which helps a tiny bit, however that is actually concerning the quarterback. If the Vikings imagine J.J. McCarthy is their man and getting forward of the opposite groups which may commerce up for him on this vary is what they should do to get a deal performed, it is potential to contort the commerce math to make it work for a rookie passer.
The Cardinals would decide up a number of first-rounders for passing up the chance to draft Marvin Harrison Jr. (Ohio State), however this could be a means for them to nonetheless get in place to take one of many high three wideouts on this class. If the highest 4 picks are quarterbacks and the Titans do what everybody expects and take a sort out at No. 7, certainly one of Harrison, Malik Nabers (LSU) and Rome Odunze (Washington) will nonetheless be on the board at No. 8. The Bears and Jets would each be believable touchdown spots for whichever extensive receivers are left at Nos. 9 and 10, so the Cardinals would want to get forward of them to make sure touchdown one of many class’s high-end receivers.
Arizona would have seven top-100 picks after the Vikings commerce, so giving up a third-round decide to maneuver up three spots would not price GM Monti Ossenfort a lot sleep. The Falcons, who’re out there for edge-rushing expertise, may simply drop three spots and nonetheless be in place to land their decide of the defensive gamers on this class. With three third-round picks, Atlanta would even have lots of flexibility if it wished to then transfer up within the second spherical for one more defensive piece.
If this commerce is complicated, break it down into two offers. The Vikings get the No. 4 decide and a fourth-rounder for Nos. 11 and 23 and a 2025 first-rounder. The Cardinals then ship Nos. 11 and 71 to the Falcons to maneuver again as much as No. 8. Simple!
49ers get: 1-5, 6-181
Chargers get: WR Brandon Aiyuk, 1-31, 3-94
Let’s discover a inventive strategy to get two groups what they want. The Chargers are bereft at extensive receiver, and whereas it was a since-departed entrance workplace regime, they only used a first-round decide on wideout Quentin Johnston and did not precisely land a constructing block. Whereas the Chargers needed to minimize Mike Williams and commerce Keenan Allen for cap house, they’ve greater than $100 million in room in 2024, to allow them to afford to go after extra of a certain factor if they continue to be versatile with the construction of a contract extension.
Getting Justin Herbert a plug-and-play No. 1 extensive receiver in Aiyuk is a transfer the Chargers would want to think about, even when it meant passing up one of many high wideouts on this class. Aiyuk has had a number of spectacular seasons with the 49ers, has grown into the kind of full participant coach Jim Harbaugh would love and simply turned 26 in March. He will be nice with Herbert proper now, and this could be an ideal touchdown spot for him by way of a possible quarterback state of affairs. Harbaugh may nonetheless go seize an offensive sort out on the backside of Spherical 1.
With Brock Purdy about to get far more costly after 2024 and the 49ers already paying large cash to Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, George Kittle and Trent Williams, this could be a inventive means to save cash. Sacrificing Aiyuk would permit them to maneuver all the best way up the board and draft his alternative, which may very well be yards-after-catch playmaker Malik Nabers. Re-signing Aiyuk and buying and selling Samuel would possibly make extra sense, however I do not imagine Samuel would command the identical kind of return.
This commerce would worth Aiyuk as being value one thing just like the No. 17 decide on the Jimmy Johnson chart, which feels truthful in a yr through which there are such a lot of proficient wideouts accessible by the draft. If I am the Chargers, it might be robust to commerce for a wideout once I may simply keep put and land a possible franchise extensive receiver within the high 10. Given Johnston’s rookie flameout and the necessity to not waste any extra of Herbert’s prime, I may see a case for touchdown a extra dependable answer and making an attempt to plug a number of holes in a single draft.
Giants get: 1-28, 2-60, 4-128, 2025 first-round decide (by way of Texans), 2026 third-round decide
Payments get: 1-6
In 2011, the Falcons shocked the league on draft day by shifting all the best way up from No. 26 to No. 6. It price them two first-rounders, a second-rounder and two fourth-rounders, however the transfer turned out simply superb for former GM Thomas Dimitroff, who landed future franchise icon Julio Jones. Jones wasn’t even the highest wideout taken in that class, as he was drafted two picks after the Bengals chosen A.J. Inexperienced, however the huge transfer up for a star wideout did not harm an Atlanta workforce that ultimately took Jones to Tremendous Bowl LI.
Might the Payments make the identical kind of transfer up for Malik Nabers or Rome Odunze? There is definitely a necessity for them at extensive receiver after shedding Gabe Davis in free company and buying and selling Stefon Diggs for a second-round decide. And in contrast to the Giants, who’re in considerably of a rebuilding interval given Daniel Jones’ unsure future and their disappointing 2023 marketing campaign, Payments GM Brandon Beane most likely needs somebody who will help Josh Allen win proper now. Calling up former assistant Joe Schoen to attempt to make a dramatic transfer into the highest 10 for one of many high wideouts is smart.
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Giants followers annoyed by their receivers would elevate main questions concerning the group buying and selling down to permit one other workforce to take a wideout, but when there’s ever a time to make that transfer, it is on this draft. With one of many deepest extensive receiver courses in current reminiscence on the books, New York would have Nos. 28, 47, 60 and 70 all accessible and probably in play for a number of extensive receivers. It may take a wideout at No. 28 after which transfer up once more into that vary for a second extensive receiver. A workforce that has been in tough cap form for a number of years and barely traded down in the course of the prior 15 years may use extra draft capital and cost-controlled expertise.
Cardinals get: 1-7, 2-38, WR Treylon Burks
Titans get: 1-4, 3-90
The Titans desperately want a left sort out. Jaelyn Duncan and Nicholas Petit-Frere do not venture there in the long run. Peter Skoronski, a first-round decide in 2023, performed left sort out in school however might be going to stay at guard as a professional. The Andre Dillard signing failed from final offseason in spectacular style. GM Ran Carthon has addressed extensive receiver and a number of ranges on protection in free company this offseason, however he has conspicuously uncared for so as to add any assist at sort out. I might be shocked if Tennessee did not come away from this draft with an answer on Will Levis’ blindside.
One downside? Jim Harbaugh has been publicly hankering for offensive line assist, even on condition that he has constructing block Rashawn Slater on the left aspect. If the Titans need to guarantee they will have their decide of the left tackles, they will must get forward of the Chargers at No. 5. Doing so means buying and selling with the Cardinals, who most likely do not need to cross up the chance to take Marvin Harrison Jr. at No. 4, which might make this transfer expensive.
Including one other excessive second-round decide at the price of a late third-rounder might be sufficient to get this performed for the Cardinals, particularly on condition that they may nonetheless land certainly one of Harrison, Malik Nabers or Rome Odunze at No. 7. They’d additionally get to take a flier on a former first-rounder in Burks, who was drafted by the earlier regime in Tennessee and is buried on the depth chart after the signings of DeAndre Hopkins and Calvin Ridley in consecutive offseasons. Burks remains to be solely 24 and has principally struggled with accidents as a professional, so including a receiver who’s owed simply $4.7 million over the following two years looks like a logical transfer for Arizona to think about.
Jets get: 1-8, 4-109, 5-143
Falcons get: 1-10, 3-72
With a comparatively flat high of the draft at edge rusher and cornerback and a high 10 that’s probably going to be offense-focused, the Falcons make sense as a workforce prone to commerce down. I might be shocked if GM Terry Fontenot made a significant transfer down the board until a workforce paid a premium, however with the Bears and Jets each prone to look towards the offensive aspect of the ball, dropping down two spots will not harm Atlanta a lot, if in any respect.
Final yr, the Jets might need been in place to draft Broderick Jones at No. 15, just for the Steelers to leap forward of them and take the offensive sort out at No. 14. And, properly, you noticed what occurred to the Jets’ offensive line final season. The Bears may very well be trying towards extensive receiver or left sort out, two positions New York GM Joe Douglas will probably be contemplating closely as he tries to construct the absolute best workforce round Aaron Rodgers in 2024. Making a small transfer up the board to get forward of Chicago could be a logical response to what occurred a yr in the past.
Bears get: 1-14, 2-45, EDGE Payton Turner
Saints get: 1-9, 3-75
Whereas we have rightfully targeted loads of consideration on the Bears touchdown two top-10 picks on this draft, they do not have a lot within the coffers after these two early picks. After buying and selling for Montez Sweat and Keenan Allen over the previous few months, Chicago has one decide on Day 2 and one decide on Day 3. It may look to commerce down from right here to get an additional choice or two.
With Trevor Penning benched and Ryan Ramczyk’s future unsure due to an damage, the Saints could be shifting as much as get forward of the Jets at No. 10 for an offensive sort out. The Bears would add one other premium decide to the combo for his or her protection whereas taking a flier on Turner, a 2021 first-rounder who has performed simply 15 video games over three seasons due to accidents. They may be out there for a sort out themselves, as talked about above, but when Chicago needs to maneuver ahead with Braxton Jones on the left aspect, this could be a strategy to replenish a few of its lacking draft capital. (It may additionally use the No. 14 decide on a sort out.)
Raiders get: 1-10, 4-111
Jets get: 1-13, 2-44, QB Aidan O’Connell
It is not out of the query that J.J. McCarthy remains to be on the board when the Jets decide right here. Pre-draft quarterback chatter can change into nothing greater than idle hypothesis or near-misses. Keep in mind that in 2021 the 49ers had been reportedly fascinated by Mac Jones at No. 3 earlier than he fell to the Patriots at No. 15. They had been additionally contemplating Aaron Rodgers with the No. 1 decide within the 2005 draft, however after they selected Alex Smith, Rodgers fell all the best way to the Packers at No. 24. Neither workforce ended up needing to maneuver up the board to land its quarterback, though these two signal-callers clearly had very totally different results on their respective franchises.
On this situation, I’ve to imagine the three groups under the Jets would not be prepared to play a sport of quarterback hen. The Vikings, Broncos and Raiders all want a long-term answer on the place, and it would not price all that a lot to maneuver up with the Jets and land that passer. There is a enjoyable universe through which the Raiders get Davante Adams concerned with this commerce to reunite Rodgers and Adams, however nothing about Las Vegas’ offseason has urged the franchise believes it’s in the course of a rebuild.
At the price of a second-round decide, would the Raiders be prepared to leap forward of the Vikings and Broncos to land McCarthy? Neither workforce has a second-rounder on this draft to match Vegas’ supply. The Vikings have one other first-rounder (No. 23), however would they actually ship it to maneuver up one spot? (The Jets do not have a second-rounder to ship again, both.)
On this deal, New York GM Joe Douglas would get again a top-50 decide after sending a second-rounder to the Packers within the Rodgers commerce final yr. The Jets would additionally get a possible backup for Rodgers in O’Connell, who exceeded expectations in a hopeless state of affairs a yr in the past. And albeit, whereas shifting down three spots in Spherical 1, they nonetheless would possibly be capable to draft the identical participant they wished at No. 10.
Colts get: 1-11
Vikings get: 1-15, 3-82
I will have a extra deranged commerce for the Vikings in a while, however let’s contemplate a situation some Minnesota followers may not need to think about: What if their favourite workforce cannot efficiently commerce up for a quarterback? There is a universe through which the Cardinals and Chargers insist on drafting much-needed extensive receivers at Nos. 4 and 5 earlier than the Giants resolve to take their post-Daniel Jones quarterback by touchdown J.J. McCarthy at No. 6. Even when Bo Nix (Oregon) or Michael Penix Jr. (Washington) could be believable Plan B choices for the Vikings, taking certainly one of them right here could be too aggressive, proper?
So, let’s be lifelike and attempt to recoup a number of the draft capital the Vikings despatched to the Texans to land that additional first-rounder (No. 23). If the Broncos and Raiders aren’t going quarterback, they may every use assist in their secondary. The Colts may very well be trying towards cornerback, too, and whereas it is a bit atypical to see Indy GM Chris Ballard each buying and selling up in Spherical 1 and concentrating on a place he sometimes would not worth, it is a clear level of weak point on a promising roster. This may be a transfer to leap up forward of the Broncos for influence tight finish Brock Bowers (Georgia).
Cardinals get: WR Courtland Sutton, 1-12, 2025 first-round decide, 2025 second-round decide
Broncos get: 1-4, 3-90
Ought to the Broncos as an alternative be targeted on buying and selling down given their paucity of draft capital over the previous few years and the state of their present roster? Sure. Do I imagine Sean Payton is about to try this after what I noticed final yr? Not likely, no. The Broncos have been remarkably quiet this offseason after the Russell Wilson commerce, and whereas that is partly a product of their cap state of affairs, Payton certainly needs to be excited about what’s subsequent for this workforce at quarterback. Jarrett Stidham is an affordable placeholder for now as a bridge signal-caller, however nothing about his play thus far has urged the 2019 fourth-rounder is assured to emerge as a future starter.
If the Broncos do need to transfer up, it will price them. The Cardinals would possibly want this supply to what they might get from the Vikings for a few causes. One is that they might be touchdown a future first-round decide from a workforce that initiatives to be very dangerous subsequent season. Arizona GM Monti Ossenfort made that very same kind of transfer in shifting down with the Texans final yr. The commerce proved to be a false hope given how rapidly Houston emerged as a playoff workforce with C.J. Stroud, nevertheless it was a worthwhile threat to take.
Matt Miller’s blockbuster Broncos commerce in his NFL mock draft
Matt Miller has the Broncos sending three first-round picks to the Cardinals to maneuver up for J.J. McCarthy in his NFL mock draft.
The Cardinals would additionally ship a participant who will help Kyler Murray and the offense now in Sutton, who’s 29 and has two years remaining on his present deal. They’d miss out on the chance to draft one of many high three extensive receivers by dropping all the way down to No. 12, however they might nonetheless have loads of draft capital so as to add wideouts in a deep class. Arizona may additionally most likely use this decide to take Brian Thomas Jr. (LSU) — thought of to be the fourth-best wideout on this class — or transfer again into the highest 10 to snag Rome Odunze. The Broncos would transfer ahead with Marvin Mims, Tim Patrick and Josh Reynolds as their beginning extensive receivers.
Falcons get: 1-13, 3-77, EDGE Malcolm Koonce
Raiders get: 1-8
The Raiders are the chaos workforce of the primary spherical. Are they as near contending as they appear to imagine after signing Christian Wilkins? Will they go after a quarterback regardless of signing Gardner Minshew to compete with Aidan O’Connell? If not, the highest 10 would not align with their wants, on condition that they’re most likely set at extensive receiver and have a left sort out in Kolton Miller. Nonetheless, new GM Tom Telesco by no means traded down throughout his time with the Chargers from 2013 to 2023. Additionally they have believable wants elsewhere alongside the offensive line, at linebacker and within the secondary, so they may go in a lot of totally different instructions.
Telesco repeatedly focused the offensive line towards the tip of his tenure with the Chargers to attempt to defend Justin Herbert. This commerce could be a transfer as much as seize a sort out forward of the Bears and Jets, with whomever the Raiders take slotting in at proper sort out forward of Thayer Munford. In his Chargers run, Telesco acquired the quarterback after which began including gamers to guard him; right here, the Raiders could be continuing in the other way.
The Falcons would transfer down 5 spots and add one other third-round decide to their assortment. They’d additionally decide up a promising pass-rusher in Koonce, who had eight sacks and 17 knockdowns in 11 begins for the Raiders throughout from Maxx Crosby a yr in the past. Groups can by no means have too many pass-rushers, however Koonce is a free agent after 2024, and Las Vegas will most likely need to see what it has in 2023 top-10 decide Tyree Wilson, who was nameless as a rookie. Dropping Koonce would harm, however this deal would worth him as being value a fourth-round decide by the Jimmy Johnson chart, which appears truthful.
Chargers get: 1-14, 2-45, OT Trevor Penning
Saints get: 1-5
If there isn’t any market within the high six to maneuver up for a quarterback, the Saints would possibly be capable to leap forward of the road to seize their favourite sort out on this class. The Chargers do not need to commerce down and will comfortably contemplate a large receiver or sort out themselves at No. 5, however they’re additionally a workforce that might stand so as to add additional draft capital. (So are the Saints, after all, however why would GM Mickey Loomis begin buying and selling down in Spherical 1 now?)
Shifting up would price the Saints their second-round decide and the man they thought was going to be their left sort out of the long run in Penning, who appears to be like and seems like he wants a change of surroundings after two disastrous seasons. Penning missed most of 2022 with an damage, and after beginning 2023 on the left aspect, he was benched in Week 6 and barely performed the remainder of the best way. The Chargers have already got Rashawn Slater locking down the left aspect of the road, however Penning may compete with Trey Pipkins at proper sort out or function the swing sort out. This deal would worth him as being definitely worth the 88th decide within the draft by the Jimmy Johnson chart.
Dolphins get: 1-15, 4-117
Colts get: 1-21, 2-55
GM Chris Ballard has been comfy shifting each up and down the board within the first two rounds of the draft throughout his time with the Colts, however he normally would not make dramatic strikes in a single route or the opposite. This might be the kind of transfer I may see him contemplating; by dropping down six picks, he would decide up one of many second-round picks he has repeatedly prioritized over his tenure. The Colts have made 13 second-round picks since 2017, two greater than some other workforce. (The Chiefs, Ballard’s former employer, are second with 11.)
The Dolphins are rebuilding their offensive line. They misplaced Robert Hunt to the Panthers this offseason, whereas Connor Williams wasn’t re-signed after tearing his ACL. Terron Armstead is a possible cap casualty after the season given his age (32) and frequent damage historical past. The Seahawks, Bengals, Rams and Steelers all sit between Nos. 15 and 21 and will plausibly be excited about concentrating on assist at sort out or guard, so the Dolphins would possibly want to leap forward in the event that they need to a lineman who can begin for them as a rookie.
Lions get: 1-16
Seahawks get: 1-29, 2-61, 2025 fourth-round decide
Of their first draft after Pete Carroll’s departure, the largest concern for GM John Schneider could be replenishing draft capital after sending a second-rounder for Leonard Williams and swapping a third-rounder for a fourth-round decide within the deal for Sam Howell. Schneider does have one other third-round decide courtesy of the Broncos, however shifting down would internet the Seahawks that second-round decide and will put them in place to think about a transfer for Michael Penix Jr. in that vary on the finish of the primary spherical. (The draft capital traded for Howell pegs him as extra of a backup than a possible future starter.)
The Lions would possibly imagine they’re one influence participant away after coming inside a blown lead of constructing it to Tremendous Bowl LVIII. They addressed their two holes on protection by signing Marcus Davenport and buying and selling for Carlton Davis this offseason, however Davenport is coming off an injury-riddled season, whereas the discharge of Cameron Sutton opened up one other gap at nook. Shifting as much as No. 16 would get Detroit forward of groups that may very well be concentrating on pass-rushers (such because the Bengals and Rams) or cornerbacks (the Jaguars, Steelers and Eagles).
Broncos get: 1-17, 3-96, 2025 third-round decide
Jaguars get: 1-12, 5-145
On paper, the Jaguars are set at key positions all through their roster. In apply, their options may not play out as swimmingly. They do not essentially want a large receiver with Gabe Davis, Zay Jones and Christian Kirk set to begin. They may very well be set at cornerback with Tyson Campbell, Ronald Darby and Antonio Johnson within the slot. Cam Robinson and Anton Harrison are the apparent selections at sort out.
In apply, the looming Trevor Lawrence extension and the dearth of ceiling these positions possess create some questions concerning the short- and long-term heights Jacksonville can attain. A yr from now, Jones and Robinson shall be free brokers, Kirk may very well be a cap casualty and Darby and Johnson may not play their means into the 2025 beginning lineup. These positions appear set, however the Jags most likely want to arrange for a risk the place they are not stuffed by the tip of 2024.
I might lean towards cornerback, the place Darby is 30 and was out of the league for a lot of the offseason a yr in the past earlier than signing a one-year cope with the Ravens, whereas Johnson has solely performed 171 snaps after being drafted within the fifth spherical final yr. Shifting as much as No. 12 would get them forward of the Raiders, who must be contemplating cornerback. The Broncos would land two additional third-round picks, which ought to turn out to be useful given their rebuild and what number of draft picks they set ablaze within the Russell Wilson deal.
Packers get: 1-18, 3-97
Bengals get: 1-25, 2-58
The final time the Bengals moved up or down in Spherical 1 was 2012, so probably the most cheap expectation for director of participant personnel Duke Tobin & Co. could be staying put. However this is not the “keep put” mock draft, is it? With Joe Burrow getting costly, Ja’Marr Chase about to affix him and Tee Higgins on the franchise tag, Cincinnati needs to be considerate about the way it retools its roster. The franchise felt the influence of shedding Jessie Bates, Vonn Bell and even Eli Apple within the secondary a yr in the past, main the workforce to re-sign Bell this offseason.
I might argue the Bengals ought to contemplate buying and selling down given how properly the deepest elements of this draft hit their roster: They’re going to want replacements for Higgins, Trent Brown and Mike Hilton as quickly as 2025, and getting an additional second-round decide to deal with these spots within the lineup will not harm. Given Brown’s damage historical past, including a swing sort out must be a precedence.
Stephen A. explores potential touchdown spots for Tee Higgins
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The Packers have the youngest roster in soccer and an issue most groups would like to face: The place do they play their most promising younger lineman? Zach Tom gained the proper sort out job final season and held his personal, however ESPN’s Rob Demovsky has reported the Packers assume Tom is usually a Corridor of Fame heart if moved there.
If the Packers plan on shifting Tom to heart, they may transfer up right here and seize a sort out forward of the Rams, Steelers and Dolphins, all of whom may very well be considering offensive line assist. That transfer may very well be for a proper sort out, or the Packers may transfer Rasheed Walker to the proper aspect and set up their new rookie on the left aspect as a long-term alternative for the departed David Bakhtiari.
Broncos get: 1-19, 2025 first-round decide, 3-99
Rams get: CB Pat Surtain, 2026 fifth-round decide
You’ll be able to’t precisely be shocked on the concept of the Rams buying and selling two first-round picks for a star younger participant, are you able to? GM Les Snead hasn’t held onto a first-round decide for the reason that commerce up for Jared Goff in 2016, so whereas the Rams worth Day 2 and Day 3 picks greater than their slogan would possibly recommend, we have seen them fortunately commerce away picks within the backside half of Spherical 1.
These picks have typically gone towards younger expertise with price management remaining of their offers, with Matthew Stafford as an exception. They’ve used these picks to accumulate Brandin Cooks and Jalen Ramsey, they usually tried to make one other transfer for Brian Burns. In every case, they had been concentrating on a younger participant who had already established himself as a star on a rookie contract. There aren’t many gamers who’re concurrently taking part in at that stage and for a workforce that is rebuilding.
The Broncos could be the lone exception, which is why a Surtain deal could be believable. The Rams already confirmed they had been prepared to spend this a lot for an entire cornerback after they acquired Ramsey in 2019, and Surtain could be the previous Jags star’s successor because the league’s finest participant on the place. Surtain is superb in protection on the skin and within the slot, able to shadowing the opposing workforce’s high extensive receiver, and is bodily sufficient to carry his personal as a tackler. He simply turned 24 on Sunday and can make a mixed $23.3 million over the following two years together with his fifth-year choice, giving L.A. loads of runway because it negotiates a brand new extension with him.
The Rams signed Darious Williams and Tre’Davious White this offseason, however Williams is 30, and White is coming off a torn Achilles and is on a one-year deal for $4.3 million. Buying Surtain would give the Rams a much-needed star on protection after the departures of Ramsey and Aaron Donald. It might additionally land the Broncos what they want much more: draft picks over the following two seasons, which might assist them as they wander by the quarterback desert and construct their post-Russell Wilson future.
Cowboys get: 1-20, 4-119
Steelers get: 1-24, 3-87, 5-174
It is uncommon to see two of the league’s most storied franchises come collectively on a commerce, however there’s some logic right here for each events. For the Cowboys, this can be a likelihood to maneuver up forward of the Dolphins and Eagles for inside offensive line assist. Assuming that Dallas pushed Tyler Smith to left sort out on a full-time foundation, it may very well be trying so as to add Graham Barton (Duke) — Mel Kiper Jr.’s top-ranked heart — to play guard or heart.
The Steelers may stand so as to add one other offensive lineman, however they might most likely be trying towards sort out versus guard. This wasn’t a deep workforce a yr in the past, and the times after they had homegrown expertise ready to burst by the ranks up and down the roster look like previously. I might wish to see Pittsburgh add extra depth throughout the board with this draft, and Mike Tomlin’s workforce would have 5 top-100 picks if it did this deal.
Cardinals get: 1-21
Dolphins get: 1-27, 3-90
The Dolphins are used to having loads of draft capital after the Laremy Tunsil commerce and the cope with the 49ers in 2021 that may turn out to be Trey Lance, however these picks have come and gone. They’re additionally down their third- and fourth-round picks on this draft, with the third-rounder taken away by the league and the fourth-rounder despatched to the Broncos within the Bradley Chubb deal. With a handful of key contributors coming due for extensions, the Dolphins are going to wish to replenish their core of cost-controlled expertise; the one means to try this is with draft picks.
Shifting down would fetch Miami a third-rounder in the identical space through which they landed De’Von Achane a yr in the past. The Cardinals aren’t about to promote out to land one participant, however with two first-rounders and three third-rounders, they’ve the power to bounce across the draft if there is a state of affairs they need to goal. Right here, they may leap forward of the Eagles if coach Jonathan Gannon needs to beat his outdated workforce to a beginning cornerback.
Seahawks get: 1-22, 2-53
Eagles get: 1-16, 3-81
GM Howie Roseman lives to maneuver up a pair picks in Spherical 1 and beat one other workforce to the participant he needs. By these requirements, leaping six picks is a extra vital leap, however the Eagles are being run a bit in a different way in 2024 than they had been in years previous. Roseman has to noticeably take into consideration what is going on to occur at cornerback in each the short- and long-term. James Bradberry and Darius Slay may each be gone in 2025, and Philadelphia would possibly want a first-rounder to step in and play significant snaps if both of the 2 get injured this season.
Shifting up would get the Eagles forward of the Jaguars within the cornerback combine. Philly has two second-round picks because of its commerce with the Saints earlier than the 2022 draft, nevertheless it would not have a third-rounder after current offers for Kelee Ringo and Kenny Pickett. (The Ringo commerce, the place the Eagles dealt a third-rounder in 2024 for a fourth-rounder in 2023, was a warmth test for Roseman.)
The Seahawks are lacking their second-rounder from the Leonard Williams commerce, so that is a method for them to get again that lacking capital, albeit on the expense of their third-rounder.
Patriots get: WR Justin Jefferson, 1-23
Vikings get: 1-3
Let’s be calm for a second and discuss by this. I do not assume the Vikings need to commerce Jefferson, and there are many examples through which organizations have waited to get a deal performed with a participant after which ultimately acquired them to signal on the dotted line. I additionally noticed the Giants signal Odell Beckham Jr., insist they weren’t going to commerce him months after giving him an extension after which do precisely that. On the very least, till a Jefferson deal will get performed, I am holding an open thoughts concerning the star wideout’s future.
It is a deal through which the Patriots and Vikings can each tackle their wants, albeit in an advanced means. From the New England aspect, impartial of what it finally ends up doing at quarterback, the franchise desperately must land a playmaker who can change video games at extensive receiver. Jefferson is 24 and getting into his prime. Whether or not it is Jacoby Brissett or one other passer, the Patriots would make a historic improve in going from DeVante Parker to Jefferson at WR1, they usually have the cap house essential to signal Jefferson to a market-resetting extension.
They’d even be in place with the No. 23 decide so as to add an offensive sort out forward of the Cowboys and Packers, each of whom may very well be out there. They may then end off their offense by utilizing the No. 34 to pick out a quarterback akin to Bo Nix or Michael Penix Jr. Quarterback, franchise extensive receiver and potential left sort out of the long run, multi function draft? I may see the case for this path, though it is actually riskier than taking a quarterback at No. 3.
Ought to the Vikings contemplate buying and selling Justin Jefferson?
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The Vikings would notably be holding onto the No. 11 choice as a part of this commerce, which might permit them to get inventive in changing Jefferson. They may transfer ahead with Jordan Addison and T.J. Hockenson as the majority of their receiving corps, however would they need to draft Brian Thomas Jr. there? Would they attempt to transfer as much as No. 8 to seize Rome Odunze? It is robust to take a look at any extensive receiver and anticipate him to show into Jefferson, however the Vikings may draft Drake Maye at No. 3 after which encompass him with two first-round picks at extensive receiver, Aaron Jones at working again and Hockenson at tight finish.
This commerce would worth Jefferson as being value one thing just like the seventh total decide in a typical draft by the Jimmy Johnson chart, or the equal of the decide Nos. 24 and 26. That is most likely a bit decrease than Vikings followers would possibly anticipate, nevertheless it’s additionally a product of a draft class that’s so wideout-heavy. On the identical time, the return for the No. 3 decide may also appear a bit low if it produces the equal of three first-round picks within the 20s for the Patriots. This deal is roughly about truthful.
Chiefs get: 1-24
Cowboys get: 1-32, 3-95, 5-159
The Cowboys are about to make an enormous monetary splash, however it will be on gamers they have already got. CeeDee Lamb and Micah Parsons are due new offers that ought to reset their respective positional markets. Dak Prescott holds all of the leverage in his negotiations with the Cowboys, because the quarterback is getting into the ultimate yr of his deal and can’t be franchised earlier than the 2025 marketing campaign. These three gamers have mixed to make just below $48 million per yr on their present offers; their new contracts may add as much as $135 million per season.
The one strategy to make that work is to chop again elsewhere, which is why the Cowboys have let a handful of starters go away this offseason with out replacements. They will must draft properly and draft usually to thrive with such a top-heavy roster, so shifting down and including two additional picks is logical. Decide No. 159 was initially theirs, however they traded it away final yr to make use of a sixth-rounder on Eric Scott, a security who spent all of 2023 as a wholesome scratch and turns 26 earlier than the beginning of the season.
The defending champs moved up from No. 29 to No. 22 two years in the past, after they despatched two picks to the Patriots and landed cornerback Trent McDuffie. The Chiefs had been flush with picks then by advantage of the Tyreek Hill commerce, which is not the case any longer. This might be a transfer as much as tackle a vital place: left sort out, the place Donovan Smith is a free agent and Wanya Morris did not impress as a rookie. Leaping the Packers and Ravens is smart if there’s any individual Kansas Metropolis trusts to guard Patrick Mahomes’s blindside.
Colts get: 1-25, 2-58
Packers get: 1-15
It have to be enjoyable to be GM Brian Gutekunst. Along with fielding the league’s youngest workforce final season, the Packers have two second-round picks and two third-round picks to go together with this choice, leaving them with loads of flexibility as they strategy the draft. There is not any apparent weak point they should tackle, which leaves them the power to take one of the best accessible participant 5 occasions within the high 100 picks if that’s the case inclined.
I’ve already talked concerning the concept of Inexperienced Bay shifting up for a sort out. Bouncing as much as No. 15 would get them forward of the Jaguars and a handful of different groups in that dialog. The Packers may additionally hit cornerback with each Jaire Alexander and Eric Stokes battling accidents over the previous couple of seasons, which is one other place the Jags would possibly contemplate addressing at No. 17. Gutekunst would nonetheless handle to carry onto the second-rounder the Packers acquired for Aaron Rodgers at No. 41, whereas the Colts would land one other second-round decide for his or her assortment.
Lions get: 1-26, 3-92
Buccaneers get: 1-29, 3-73
The Bucs have a number of wants which may simply as simply be addressed early on Day 2, most notably alongside the inside of their offensive line. And one workforce that’s most likely not trying that means is the Lions, who’ve holes at edge rusher and cornerback and have already got one of many league’s finest offensive strains.
Shifting down three spots would permit Tampa Bay so as to add one other decide within the high 75, which is normally a dependable window for including assist at heart and inside linebacker. The Lions would get again No. 92, which they despatched to the Bucs earlier this offseason within the Carlton Davis deal.
Bengals get: 1-27
Cardinals get: WR Tee Higgins, 4-115
Wish to construct a devastating receiving corps in at some point? Take Marvin Harrison Jr. with the No. 4 decide, then commerce this choice for Higgins. With Harrison on a rookie deal for the following 4 years and Trey McBride nonetheless on one for 2 extra seasons, the Cardinals may give Higgins an extension and roll out Harrison, Higgins and McBride because the three high playmakers of their passing assault for Kyler Murray. That is a enjoyable group, even amid stiff competitors for that title within the NFC West.
As was the case with Brandon Aiyuk, the query for the Bengals is whether or not they actually imagine they’ll preserve Higgins within the long-term. They’ve already paid Joe Burrow, and a large extension for Ja’Marr Chase is quickly to comply with as early as this offseason. Would they actually want to funds a DeVonta Smith-sized extension for Higgins, or is that cash higher used elsewhere? If they will transfer on, it is higher to do it now and land a first-round decide in a deep class for extensive receivers than wait a yr and internet a third-round compensatory decide in 2026.
Higgins would not draw the identical kind of return as Aiyuk or Justin Jefferson for plenty of causes. He is already on the franchise tag, which leaves the Bengals star yet one more tag away from hitting unrestricted free company. (A 3rd tag is authorized however not economically lifelike.) Aiyuk and Jefferson are each on their fifth-year choice, which leaves them one other yr additional away from the open market. Higgins is coming off a misplaced, injury-hit season, and whereas Jefferson additionally missed time final season, his peak has been considerably extra productive than Higgins’.
Raiders get: 1-28
Payments get: 2-44, 3-77
Earlier, I made the case for the Payments shifting means up the board and touchdown one of many high three wideouts. I really want this aspect of the coin, the place they lean into the depth and number of this class and take a couple of swing at extensive receiver within the high 100. GM Brandon Beane would have Nos. 44, 60 and 77 to work with, and that ought to permit him to make extra strikes round Day 2 within the hopes of discovering a difference-maker or two for Josh Allen.
That is additionally the vary through which groups choosing within the high half of Spherical 2 will begin questioning whether or not they need to beat the opposition to the punch to take the fifth quarterback off the board. The groups on the backside of Spherical 1 aren’t going to draft a signal-caller, however they may all be out there to commerce their picks for the proper supply. If the Raiders go for one thing moreover quarterback at No. 13, this may very well be their transfer to get forward of groups such because the Falcons and Giants for Bo Nix or Michael Penix Jr.
Patriots get: 1-29
Lions get: 2-34, 4-103
There’s about to be a bit mini run right here of groups that must be on the lookout for offensive line assist. The Ravens, who decide at No. 30, misplaced three starters up entrance. The 49ers, who decide at No. 31, might need gained the Tremendous Bowl with higher line play in key moments. And the Chiefs, who end up the primary spherical at No. 32, would possibly need to put money into a long-term alternative at left sort out after seeing Wanya Morris wrestle in a handful of begins a yr in the past. The groups choosing early in Spherical 2 shall be up calling the Lions in the event that they see a lineman they like on the board.
A type of groups could be the Patriots, who want a left sort out to dam for the quarterback they will presumably draft a No. 3. The brand new regime re-signed Mike Onwenu and added Chuks Okorafor from the Steelers, however neither will play on the left aspect. AFC East traveler Conor McDermott and former undrafted free agent Vederian Lowe are penciled in to compete on the blindside, however it might be a shock if the Pats did not have one other answer at left sort out by the beginning of coaching camp.
The Lions would transfer down 5 spots and regain a fourth-round decide after sending theirs to the Vikings within the T.J. Hockenson deal.
Chargers get: 1-30
Ravens get: 2-37, 4-105
One of many different positions that’s going to be topic to groups shifting up on the backside of Spherical 1 is extensive receiver. The Chiefs may contemplate taking one at No. 32. The Panthers decide at Nos. 33 and 39 and must get Bryce Younger extra assist. The Pats are at No. 34, and if they do not go for an offensive sort out, they may take a wideout. Groups are going to wish to maneuver round if a second-tier pass-catcher akin to Adonai Mitchell (Texas) is offered and seen as a precedence on their board.
The Chargers may take a large receiver at No. 5, but when they go for an offensive lineman or commerce down and in any other case do not seize a wideout with their high choice, this could be a spot to seize a wideout to play alongside Quentin Johnston. New Chargers normal supervisor Joe Hortiz simply came to visit from Baltimore, so he most likely has Eric DeCosta’s quantity. Baltimore already has a pair of fourth-rounders, however including one other would permit it to additional replenish a roster that was hit onerous by free company or bundle a few picks to attempt to transfer up on Day 2.
Raiders get: 1-31, 4-135, 2025 fourth-round decide
49ers get: 2-44, 2025 second-round decide
The opposite place groups shall be excited about on this vary is quarterback, the place we noticed the Titans commerce up early on Day 2 to draft Will Levis a yr in the past. The groups on the backside of Spherical 1 and even those firstly of Spherical 2 do not want a quarterback, however the franchises that miss out on one of many high 4 quarterbacks within the first half of this draft are going to be excited about getting energetic and attempting to commerce up for the following couple of passers on their board.
The groups that decide at the beginning of Day 2 — the Panthers, Patriots, Cardinals and Commanders — want to make use of their picks to get assist for his or her present quarterbacks, so they won’t be accessible for commerce. The Titans (No. 38) may very well be open for enterprise, however what concerning the 49ers right here? They should recoup draft capital after making vital trades in prior years so as to add Christian McCaffrey (which labored out nice) and Trey Lance (much less so). Including a second-round decide, even when it is in subsequent yr’s draft, could be a invaluable chip — that is a decide they may even contemplate dealing at subsequent yr’s commerce deadline in the event that they need to add an influence participant in 2024.
Groups together with the Falcons, Raiders, Saints and Giants are within the combine to maneuver up in the event that they actually like Bo Nix or Michael Penix Jr. This might be a leap ahead for Vegas, which might add a type of rookies to the combo with Gardner Minshew and Aidan O’Connell.
Michael Penix Jr.’s NFL draft resume
Try a number of the numbers that make Washington’s Michael Penix Jr. a top-10 NFL prospect.
Cardinals get: 1-32, 3-95
Chiefs get: 1-27, 6-186
If the Chiefs need to add a large receiver in Spherical 1, they may need to get forward of their arch-rivals from Buffalo, who decide at No. 28 and have a wide-open depth chart after buying and selling Stefon Diggs and shedding Gabe Davis in free company. Shifting up 5 spots could be in Kansas Metropolis GM Brett Veach’s vary, and whereas it might price the Chiefs a third-round decide, beating the Payments to the punch for a wideout who separated from the pack on Kansas Metropolis’s board would each assist the Chiefs and probably hurt certainly one of their greatest rivals.
The Cardinals, who’ve featured in a lot of this mock’s trades, would then have decide Nos. 32, 35, 66, 71, 90, 95 and 104, plus no matter they find yourself doing with the No. 4 decide. It is not the sexiest strategy to flip round a roster, however each single analytics division within the league could be nodding and looking out longingly in any respect the second- and third-round picks GM Monti Ossenfort has amassed.